West Germany’s worry

Press, Volume CXIV, Issue 33424, 4 January 1974, Page 9

West Germany’s worry

(S.Z P A.-Reuter—Copyright) , BONN, January 3. [ a The latest increase in o the price of Libyan oil - may well wipe out ® West Germany’s healthy n balance - of - payments j surplus in 1974. according to provisional esti-i mates by Government; oil experts. ’’ West Germany imports; ’ about 28 per cent of her; oil requirements from Libya,; which has raised het price' to $U518.76 a barrel, corn-; pared with the Gulf oil pro-! ducers price of SUSI 1.68. ; e The experts estimate that; s i the various increases by Arab, pl oil States will place an 2 additional burden of about, I 13,200 million marks (about SNZ3I2Om) on West Ger-J s many’s import bill in 1974. [ e The total bill for crude oil; and mineral oil produce this!

year will increase to more than 29,000 million marks (about SNZ749Om). In 1973

it was about 16,000 million marks (about SNZ4I34m), and in 1972, only 11,000 million marks (about. SNZ2BOBm). Up to the end of last October, West Germany was running a record trade surplus of 26,800 million marks (about SNZ6942m), but, because of a deficit on tourism, foreign workers’ transfers to their home countries, and other invisibles, the balance-of-payments surplus for the first 10 months was a more modest 6600 million marks (about SNZI7I6m). Officials at the Ministry of Economics in Bonn say that the higher cost of oil will scale down this surplus considerably, even without allowing for the decline in trade expected to result from the oil crisis.

They add that the melting-! away of the balance-of-payments surplus will, inevitably, lead to a weakening of the mark, and to changes in the country's economic and development-aid policies.