Poll puts Nixon further ahead

Press, Volume CXII, Issue 33063, 2 November 1972, Page 15

Poll puts Nixon further ahead

(N.Z.P.A. Stag Correspondent)

WASHINGTON, November 1. The Hallowe’en news for Senator George McGovern was not encouraging, latest public opinion polls showing him losing ground to President Richard Nixon over the last stage of Presidential electioneering.

The Louis Harris poll published yesterday disclosed the President to be holding a 60 to 32 per cent lead over the. Democratic challenger. It was the first Harris poll since September to show the President gaining on his challenger. And the results came in at a time when traditionally Senator McGovern should have been cutting deeply into the incumbent’s lead. Between mid-September and mid-October Senator McGovern cut the President’s lead from 34 to 25 percentage points. The surge in support for the President apparently stems from the prospect of an early settlement of the Vietnam conflict. Coupled with the bad news from the Harris poll, McGovern campaign staff had to contend with magazine analyses of likely election results. These suggested the only area the senator was certain of winning was the District of Columbia •— the nation’s capital. A win there would give Senator McGovern only three votes in the Electoral College. In contrast, the President appears to have suffi-

cient states locked up to give him 295 Electoral College votes, 25 more than needed to assure him of a second term.

But the outlook for Senator McGovern is even bleaker than those figures suggest. The magazine surveys suggest a further 166 electoral votes are likely to be won by the President while they find none in the same category as far as the Democrat is concerned.

Only the voting in four states — California, South Dakota, Wisconsin, and Massachusetts — is considered uncertain. Even if Senator McGovern were to win all four he would add only 74 electoral votes to his tally. Most commentators predict a landslide victory for the President, with the prospect of peace in Vietnam countering unease among the public at the allegations of shady dealing by senior Administration officials.

The gloom apparent within the McGovern campaign organisation suggests that even his most fervent followers have written off any chance that the Democrat might pull off a shock victory.