The Canadian election

Press, Volume CXII, Issue 33060, 30 October 1972, Page 14

The Canadian election

On the eve of Canada’s General Election, opinion polls provide few clues to what the voters are thinking. Mr Trudeau is expected to be given a second term; but whether with a Liberal majority again in both Houses of Parliament is another question. The latest poll suggests that about a quarter of the voters are still undecided—a proportion large enough to affect the result significantly, assuming either a swing away from the Government or a strengthening of support for it. In the House of Representatives, for instance, a turnover of no more than 20 of the 264 seats would leave the Liberals in office, but in a minority against the other three parties—the Progressive Conservatives, the (Socialist) New Democrats, and Social Credit. The main challenger for office is still Mr Robert Standish’s Conservative party, which had 72 seats in the last Parliament. However it does not seem to have made the impact needed to take over from the Liberals.

Mr Trudeau may claim to have improved relations with the United States, without having weakened in any way his commitment to Canadian nationalism. He may claim also that Canada has forfeited no friendships, but has increased its stature internationally, by its early recognition of Communist China. He maintains that the sheer size of the American investment in Canada, measured in billions of dollars, is confirmation of the enormous scope that exists for industrial expansion. If the Liberals are returned it will be Mr Trudeau’s aim to attract foreign capital on an even larger scale. He has declared his readiness to discuss such proposals “ with anyone at any time ”, and to make new contacts “ advantageous to Canadians ”. No doubt there will be some hard bargaining between Ottawa and Washington if the Liberals stay in power, particularly on the question of oil. The United States at the moment is not greatly interested in Canadian oil, but would like to buy Canadian natural gas, the export of which is currently restricted. The Government’s emphasis on bilingualism might make language something of an issue, especially in parts of Quebec, where pressures continue to mount for the use of French. The Government continues to insist that in Quebec and New Brunswick Federal services must be available in both English and French. There seems to be little prospect of Social Credit’s adding to the 13 seats it held in the last Parliament. However, a rise in unemployment, which Mr Trudeau confesses he is unable to account for, may help the New Democrats, who had 22 seats in the old House, although not to the stage where they might replace the Conservatives as the official Opposition. In all, it will take a substantial swing against the Liberals to change the balance of representation; and the opinion polls, so far as they go, do not suggest that such a swing will occur.