COLD FEET IN THE KATTEGAT DENMARK HESITATES ABOUT JOINING THE COMMON MARKET

Press, Volume CXII, Issue 32874, 24 March 1972, Page 8

COLD FEET IN THE KATTEGAT DENMARK HESITATES ABOUT JOINING THE COMMON MARKET

(HARTFORD THOMAS.

reporting to the, "Guardian" from Copenhagen)

(Reprinted by arrangement)

Denmark decided a few days ago not to hold its referendum on joining the Common Market until October 2, a week after the Norwegians hold theirs. This is the latest symptom in a nasty outbreak of cold feet about Europe that afflicts Danish politics at the moment.

Though the Social Democrat Prime Minister Mr J. O. Krag had a more than four to one majority in Parliament in December in favour of joining the E.E.C., public opinion polls in recent months have shown a split of about 40-30-30 between the yeses, noes, and don’t knows. And polls have shown a majority of his own party rank and file against entry. For the British observer, the Danish situation is rich in paradoxical irony. A Social Democrat minority government, bringing back from Brussels enviable terms of entry, depends for survival on the support of the antiE.E.C. Socialist People’s Party, but it can rely On the right-wing opposition for support on Europe, though at the risk of antagonising its own Leftists. A Wilsonian role So Mr Krag, who is a dedicated European and a former Charlemagne prize winner, finds himself forced into the Wilsonian role of keeping his political options open. Everyone knew that Norway was shaky. Denmark was supposed to give Norway an encouraging lead by holding its referendum first, on the assumption that Scandinavians Will stick together.

Instead, Mr Krag has chosen to wait and see which way Norway goes. If Norway votes against, he has said, a new situation will arise—though what he means by this is far from clear.

Whether or not a Norwegian vote of "no” would greatly influence which way Denmark votes is arguable, and much argued. The situation is confused by the fact that Norway’s referendum is advisory, whereas Denmark’s is binding. So, if Norway votes “no” and Denmark “yes,” it would still remain open to the Norwegian Government to advise the Oslo Parliament to go along with Denmark and join tha E.E.C. If the referendum politics are puzzling, so too are the reasons for Danish. doubts. Nobody is saying that Denmark has not got the right terms. As one Danish official Cut it to me, they might ave been tailor-made for Denmark. He also saw entry into Europe as a heavensent chance to cope with

Denmark’s chronic balance of payments deficit. Correspondingly, to stay out could be catastrophic, or so the financial figuring shows.

In simple cash terms, Denmark does not have to pay a so-called entrance fee to join the Community, as Britain does. The common agricultural policy should bring Denmark benefits in the first year of about £4O million, rising to about £BO million by the end of the transition period. Entry would also provide new opportunities for Danish exports.

Contrariwise, with Denmark out and Britain in (and every argument assumes British entry as certain), the Danes would be in real danger of losing their British market for butter and bacon which was worth £127 million last year. All this has to be seen against a balance of payments deficit currently running at about £2OO million a year, and that for a country of only five million population.

Can Denmark really be seriously thinking of turning down the economic advantages of entry in these circumstances? Yes, because the present debate is on higher things, on national identity, the Danish way of life, on the future of social democracy, not on the rather sordid balance sheet of economic profit and loss.

That, at any rate is one way of looking at it. The Danes have a high opinion of themselves, and with reason. They share with Sweden the highest standard of living in Europe. To join the Six, or the Seven or Eight (adding in Britain and Ireland), does not look to the Danes like joining a rich man’s club so much as a sick man’s club. They see. themselves joining a community typified by low wages, high unemployment, and poor social welfare. Will they be threatened by a tide of cheap migrant labour? Will they be expected to harmonise their social services to lower Community standards? How will the interventionist policies of a social democracy square with the Brussels ideology of the free market economy?

The banes also tend to feel themselves to be more Scandinavian than European. Denmark is the kind of country

where a woman taxi-driver insists on strapping the front seat passenger into • the safety harness. That wouldn’t happen to you in France or Italy.

Denmark is a country with a long, proud history; it has preserved its independence against powerful neighbours, but it is still suspiciously defensive about its national identity. In its own way, it is as Gaullist as France—or as Britain. Its last referendum was fought on land laws to prevent the German colonisation of its best seaside beaches (an issue which still rumbles on). Hence, quite apart from the economic pros and cons, there are strong phychological reasons for hesitating at the point of no return, and these operate in all parties and all classes. There are also more purely political overtones. The small Socialist Peoples Party, with 17 M.P.s and 10 per cent of the electorate, has the straight anticapitalist view of the Common Market.

Of the 70 Social Democrat M.P.s, 11 are now openly opposed to entry, on grounds of the political cost of submitting to Brussels with its capitalist free competition approach. Social Democrats also fear that the three right wing parties (from right to left, the Liberals, the Conservatives, and the Radicals) would be able to exploit Brussels rulings against the Left. A prevailing mood of neutralism and disengagement in the parties of the Left also tends to run against the Common Market

With typical Danish seriousness, the great debate is being conducted in hundreds of study circles and week-end seminars up and down the country as well as at the standard political meetings. It is, so far, good tempered, and nothing like as disruptive of the Left as in Britain and Norway. Nor has it deeply divided the trade unions. Most trade union leaders are still in favour of entry, but with reserve. There is to be a special meeting of the trade unions in May to discuss their line. Meanwhile the biggest union, the Industrial and General Workers Union, has been sending weekly parties of shop floor officials to Brussels to find out on the spot what it is all about. Entry in the end Most of the people I have been speaking to in Copenhagen think that in the end the referendum will go in favour of entry. The case in favour has hardly been made yet, but when it is, it will be a powerful one, with almost all the best-known political leaders behind it So far the Opposition has been making die running, but the Government's sense of timing may have been right in leaving the climax until later, for the great debate is already becoming the great bore, and that may make it difficult for opponents to keep up the pace. The referendum takes the form of a "Yes” or “No” to legislation which will already have gone through the Danish Parliament. To block it, the Noes have to obtain not only a straight majority of the votes cast, but 30 per cent of all registered voters. The opinion polls suggest they may get more than 30 per cent, but remain in a minority, though it is thought that the Noes are most likely to turn out and vote whereas apathy is more likely to threaten the Yeses. The Gallup polls published by the "Berlingske Tidende” show that doubt about Europe began to set in during 1970 when the for-against vote moved from 51-9 in January to 54-15 in October. In April, 1971, it was 37-30; in September 43-30. and since then month by month 43-31, 39-27, 37-31, 38-35, and last month 41-32. The doubts seem to have arisen mainly from the longterm political and social implications of joining the Community—or more exactly fears of being swamped by surrounding Europe. The immediate economic advantages have been somewhat neglected in this phase of the debate. They are still thought likely to clinch the decision when it comes to the vote.