‘Majority rule in 2035'

Press, Volume CXI, Issue 32777, 30 November 1971, Page 15

‘Majority rule in 2035 '

<7f.Z. Press Assn.—Copyright) LONDON, Nov. 29.

Majority rule in Rhodesia would be delayed for at least 64 years, according to the most authoritative statistical analysis now available of the terms of the settlement between Sir Alec Douglas-Home and Mr lan Smith, the “Sunday Times” reported.

The analysis, by Dr Claire Palley, professor of politics at - Queen’s University, and an- acknowledged authority on. the Rhodesian situation, makes the most optimistic assumptions about the pace of African education advance —the vital qualification for the right to vote —the newspaper said. It suggests 2035 as the year when qualified Africans would first exceed the number of European voters and be able to oust

them from power. There are 249,000 Europeans and 5,200,100 Africans in Rhodesia today. The analysis assumes absolute good faith on the part of the Smith Government and its successors, as well as a major increase in the output of African schools and full registration by all qualified Africans.

On this basis, parity between Europeans and Africans cannot be expected before the year 2026. Nine more years would then elapse before schoolleavers reached voting age and the electoral machinery for moving forward was brought into play. There would be swift progress between now and 1982 under the impact of the £5O million British aid programme, but the pace would then slow down.

Problems of registering African voters, of passing the financial as well as the education tests, and of maintaining African unity are only some of the many imponderables which in practice

are bound to modify the optimistic assumption which, to reduce the complexities of prediction. Dr Palley has made.

But taking education alone, on a more pessimistic but still realistic assumption—s per cent annual increase in African education later in the century—the analysis shows that a century from now, in 2071, majority rule would still be many years away.

Neither the British nor the Rhodesian Governments have so far been drawn into publishing their own assessments of this critical question about the settlement. Both would run a clear political risk if they did so. The “Sunday Mail,” Rhodesia's largest circulation newspaper, urged the Rhodesian Government to tell the British Labour Party that it did not want its proposed opinion-testing team to visit Rhodesia—and should declare them prohibited immigrants if necessary, the Associated Press reported today. Meanwhile there has been

general jubilation and very little adverse reaction to details of the settlement terms —from either Whites cr blacks—since they were made known.

The Left-wing multi-racial Centre Party—the main opponent of the Prime Minister (Mr lan Smith) at the last elections—has officially pulled out of a by-election to be held in central Salisbury on December 22. The party—many of whose supporters are former members of the United Federal Party formerly led by Sir Roy Welensky and Sir Edgar Whitehead—has been holding meetings all last week to choose a candidate. On Saturday, it announced it would not be contesting the seat—apparently because it did not think it stood a chance against Mr Smith with the country in its present mood.

There is still a chance that one of the Right-wing parties will put forward a candidate but—for the same reason—he is not given much chance either by observers.