Russian Bid To Regain Lead In Space

Press, Volume CX, Issue 32396, 8 September 1970, Page 8

Russian Bid To Regain Lead In Space

The balance of power in space is again swinging from one side to the other. Only a year ago the world was still applauding the first landing on the Moon. With a second lunar attempt in the offing it seemed then that America was well in the lead in the space race.

They had at last erased the shame of being second to Russia i’ sending the first satellite into orbit and the first man into space. /.

of expenditure hit 5.2 billion dollars. It has now been almost halved to 3.3 billion dollars and some drastic cutbacks have resulted. The full effect of retrenchment will be felt in the years to come, especially if the Russians regain space superiority. The Americans will then be forced to spend much more than they have saved to recapture lost ground. It is a pity to think that the amount of money spent by the United States in one week on defence could restore the United States space programme to full health and vigour. The diminished space expenditure haS not only closed space centres and caused thousands of skilled technicians to be laid off but has also undermined the morale of the most vital personnel, including the astronauts themselves. The number of future Apollo flights has been reduced to no more than 10, which means that of the 49 astronauts now at flight status or in training only 30 at the most will be sent into space. The junior astronauts are none too happy at the prospect of being no more than members of back-up and support teams. This and other vexations have recently been aired publicly in a book “The making of an ex-astronaut" by a former astronaut, Brian O'Leary. Missions Scrapped

have been asked by N.A.S.A. to give their views on the scrapping of a further two, Apollo lunar missions [Missions 15 and 19 have been cancelled.] They appear to have reached a compromise by advocating that only one lunar mission be dropped. Admittedly the deletion of one or two lunar flights would make two Saturn 5 launch vehicles available for other possible uses, such as space station construction, but they will deprive a further six astronauts of their chance to visit the Moon. On the other side of the Iron Curtain the Soviet Union continues to increase its space activity. In the Cosmos series alone the Russians have so far this year launched just about as many satellites as the total number of United States launchings for the whole of last year. In addition they have launched other spacecraft of the Meteor weather satellite series, further Molniya comsats, another Venus probe and their Soyuz manned spacecraft have recaptured from the Americans the record for a manned spaceflight of longest duration. The expansion of Soviet space activities compared with America’s declining effort is most strikingly revealed when the ratio of Soviet to American spaceflights is plotted on a year-by-year basis. During the first four years of the space age, America launched four times as many satellites and spaceprobes as the Russians. In 1962 the ratio slipped to 3 to 1 in America's favour and by 1964 it was I less than 2 to 1.

A deeper analysis might have shown that Russia still held a challenging position and the events of the last year suggest that the Russians may regain space supremacy before very long. The indications are, first, the American space budget is suffering further cuts while there is no sign of a reduction in Soviet space spending. Second, the United States has cancelled, curtailed or postponed projects which might have preserved its lead in space at a time when the Soviets are obviously extending their abilities, particularly where multiple launchings are involved, as with the Soyuz flights. Third, the number of Russian spacecraft sent into orbit annually shows no sign of a decline, unlike the American totals which have been steadily falling since 1966. And finally, the Russians have yet to unveil their huge new booster rumoured to be even larger than the Saturn 5. When it comes into service the new booster will undoubtedly be given the task, of establishing a space station, otherwise there seems little point to the Soviet metalwelding experiments in space.

The American N.A.S.A. space budget reached its peak in 1965 when the annual rate

Within the last month two scientific advisory boards

I Impressive Rate I In other words the ratio I was even then tipping in Russia’s direction. Every year, with exception of a slight reversal in 1966, the relative number of Soviet spaceflights showed an increase. Last year the ratio was 1.7 to one in Russia's favour. This year the figure may well exceed two to one. Admittedly the Americans have on many occasions launched multiple payloads with a single rocket but the Soviet launch rate remains impressive. For the last four years Russia has fired spacecraft into orbit at an average rate of at least one a week. Sometimes there has been as many as six launchings in a single week. There is no sign of any slackening in the Soviet effort and, while no reliable figures are available, i is obvious that Russia’s space budget must be continually expanding. The ratio of Soviet to American spaceflights will level off when Russia's new super-rocket comes into service; unless, of course, America's launch-rate plummets still further. However, a few spectacular missions by the Russians using a booster in the Saturn class will do more than anything else to restore cuts in the United States space budget.