BRITISH POLITICS WHEN WILL MR WILSON TIME A GENERAL ELECTION?

Press, Volume CIX, Issue 32073, 22 August 1969, Page 10

BRITISH POLITICS WHEN WILL MR WILSON TIME A GENERAL ELECTION?

(By

H. B. BOYNE,

political correspondent of the “Daily Telegraph", London)

(Reprinted from the “Daily Telegraph" by arrangement) I don’t know whether other old soldiers will agree, but the word of command I used to And most difficult to give was “Halt.” To produce the crisp one-two effect, you had to utter, if you remember correctly, as the right foot was passing the left. Or was it left passing right? Anyway, it was incredibly hard, until the thing became second nature, to judge the exact moment. One had a fellow-feeling for the subaltern in the story whose sergeant pleaded, as the platoon was nearing the cliff edge, “For God’s sake say something, sir, even if it’s only goodbye. . . .” A Prime Minister with three-and-a-third years of a Parliament behind him, as. Mr Wilson is at this moment, is even worse off; and, having once shouted “Halt,” there is no question of “Quick march” or “About turn.”

During his holiday in the Isles of Scilly Mr Wilson’s thoughts will no doubt be partly occupied by the Government reconstruction which he apparently plans. But I fancy that the question which is really nagging at him is the timing of the General Election. To listen to some people in the Labour Party, you would think the date was already fixed for the autumn of 1970. One is bound to agree that October-November, 1970, is the likeliest timezone, because it is the last of the normal polling seasons available to Mr Wllsqn without pushing him up against the quinquennial time-limit which expires In the spring of 1971. He has always said he will not repeat what he considers to have been Sir Alec Douglas-Home’s mistake of 1964, in taking the full term.

Decimal Factor Another factor is the introduction of decimal coinage in February, 1971. A disturbance of this magnitude, however beneficial in the long run, is going to irritate the public, and the Government in power will get the blame. For a Prime Minister seeking reelection it could mean the difference between success and failure.

My own feeling is that if Britain’s economic performance in the next nine months can be represented as justifying the optimistic trend of Mr Roy Jenkins’s recent speeches, Mr Wilson will be tempted to try hia luck next May, on the strength of a “popular” Budget One thing about the stringency of the Jenkins regime is that it offers plenty of scope for apparent relaxation. I should add that Conservatives of mature experience are not prepared, even now, to rule out an election in the next four months. In their view, there are storm signals looming up towards the end of the year which Mr Wilson is well able to read: abroad, the French devaluation and tougher conditions in the American market; at home, the danger to which the Prices and Incomes Board drew attention in its annual report that “prices will go up more than forecast in the period ahead.” The theory is that Mr Wilson might decide to run for shelter before the storm breaks. At best, he could be returned with a severely reduced majority, having benefited from the swing towards flie Government which usually occurs during a tranquil summer recess. At worst, he would have bequeathed to the Conservatives the task of battening down the hatches, and the inevitable unpopularity of crisis measures.

Party Conferences

It will certainly not be lost on Mr Wilson that by recalling Parliament for Dissolution in the early days of October, he would deprive the Conservatives of their party conference, and thus give himself a useful start in the publicity stakes. His own party conference, beginning on September 29, looks like being a profitable demonstration of party unity. At all events, it will be far less fratricidal than anyone could have predicted two months ago, before the settlement with the Trades Union Congress on “penal clauses.” To Conservatives this may have been a palpable sell-out, and many uncommitted voters, judging from public opinion polls, got the same impression. But the fact is that it has transformed the morale of a disaffected Labour party, which is now in better heart to fight an election than at any time in the last 12 months, if not longer. The row over the Redistribution of Seats Bill, far from damaging the Parliamentary Labour Party’s new mood of indulgence towards the Government, has enhanced it. Apart from a few purists with the grace to feel ashamed of Mr Callaghan’s blatant gerrymandering, most Labour M.P.s are delighted that the Government is taking advantage of its power to “do the party a bit of good for once.” They are also convinced, not without reason, that the public, outside constituency party activists who con electoral registers and know the score, is bored with the whole affair.

Problem For The Lords In my opinion, the Conservatives, thanks to Mr Heath’s brilliantly aggressive speech the night the “guillotine” was announced, have already got as much mileage as they are likely to get out of the boundaries issue. They have successfully implanted the suspicion of dirty work at the crossroads. This will remain. But it might be counteracted if the Lords, having made an effective protest and wrung at least the semblance of a concession out of the Government, were

to give Mr Wilson further, excuse for alleging that hereditary backwoodsmen were blocking the democratic decision of the elected Chamber. It would also be a mistake for Conservative peers to foster any notion that their party boggles at an election fought on existing boundaries, or on any combination of old and new, however weighted. Tories must above all show confidence in their ability to bowl Labour out on any wicket As for impending Ministerial changes which are meant to give the Wilson Administration a new look on the run-up to the election, I cannot see that they will make the slightest difference to the result. The next election, like the last, will be about Mr Wilson. He deserved . practically all the credit for the 1966 victory. If Labour is defeated next time, he will get practically all the blame.

Changes Too Late? He has not proved himself a good team selector. He has kept mediocre men in posts beyond their capacity long after old debts of friendship and service were paid. In doing so he has blunted the enthusiasm of others whose talents cried out to be tested. I have never thought much of the oft-quoted dictum that a Prime Minister must be a good butcher. But Mr Wilson, whether through excessive consideration for the feelings of colleagues or sheer indecision, has needlessly saddled his Administration with a reputation for inefficiency in execution as well as failures of policy. Changes now, however sweeping, will come too late to erase the stain of the worst - managed Parliament that almost anyone in Westminister can remember. Were there ever in a single session two such glaring examples of incompetence as the Lords Reform Bill and the promised Bill on industrial relations? One was killed to provide a transplant of Parliamentary time for the other, yet that other never breathed.

Mr Wilson has regained some degree of popularity, or at least acceptance, in. the Parliamentary party: though if one may adapt the Birch version of Browning, “never glad, confident morning again.” He may yet make up some leeway in the country.

But belief in his competence has surely been damaged beyond repair. If this is so, the British voter will refuse to re-elect a Government of misfits led by a bungler, however intelligent and sincere he may appear on televirion. The trouble about being a one-man band is that you get blamed, and rightly, for all the wrong notes.

A Paradox Paradoxically, I have heard it argued that the quickest way to get rid of Mr Wilson would be to return him. The theory is that, having won three successive elections and secured his place in history, he would resign after two years or so and resume academic life. But if he lost the election his Yorkshire pride and grit would compel him to remain leader of the Labour party until he won another, however far ahead. A not unimportant detail, however, is that the Parliamentary Labour party, when in Opposition, elects its leader afresh each session. No doubt there would be contenders including Mr Callaghan. In fact, one might say he has already gone into training.

The electors of Cardiff S.E. and Huyton could thus save trouble and strife by ensuing that Mr Callaghan and Mr Wilson both lose their seats at the first opportunity. This would seem to be the perfect Tory revenge for the Seats Bill.