Gloomy N.Z. Dairy Forecast

Press, Volume CIX, Issue 32032, 5 July 1969, Page 1

Gloomy N.Z. Dairy Forecast

If present output and consumption trends in European Economic . Community countries ■ continued, an enlarged community that could include Britain would be . more than self-sufficient in dairy produce by 1975, Dr A. H. Hayman, a J former New Zealand Rhodes scholar who is now an agricultural economist, said in an interview in Christchurch yesterday. Should Britain join the E.E.C, as well as Norway, Denmark and Ireland, two factors would affect New Zealand, he said. The consumer priee for manufactured dairy products in Britain would double if the present agricultural policy of E.E.C. countries was continued. This would tend to depress British consumption, lowering butter imports 45 per cent

Within the community, member countries were likely to continue to give preference to the produce of other members.

The present preference by Britain for New Zealand-dairy produce was likely to be substituted by preference agreements in favour of member countries.

Dr Hayman gained his master of economics degree at Lincoln College and a Ph.D. at Oxford. He is in Christchurch on his way to take up a post with the Bureau of Agricultural Economics, Canberra. Oxford Study

During the preparation of bis thesis at Oxford he stud-

ied the effect on the New Zealand dairy industry of Britain’s entry to the E.E.C. Dr Hayman said the resignation of President De Gaulle meant that Britain's entry was slightly more likely, but did not assure membership. Political issues would govern entry.

If Britain did not join for some time, New Zealand could expect to maintain a sizable market in Britain. But it was unlikely that this would ex-

pand, or that there would be any favourable price trend. If Britain did enter the community, New Zealand’s access to the United Kingdom market would depend on the conditions of entry. Asked to speculate on the possibility of special access privileges, Dr Hayman said factors to be considered included the large surpluses of ■skim milk powder and butter in countries of the Six. The community was unlikely to allow New Zealand access to sell produce in a member country when it was the policy to make special provision for maintaining farmer incomes in the European countries concerned. It must be remembered that between 12 per cent and 18 per cent of the population were rural workers and this made them a significant political force. NX Cheapest On economics alone, New Zealand could certainly market dairy produce in Europe, Dr Hayman said. It could deliver dairy produce cheaper there than any country in the world, because of the efficiency of New Zealand producers.

But the future would be decided on political issues. The agricultural policy organisation of E.E.C. countries was towards supporting the incomes of farmers. In their eyes, the New Zealand farmer was more prosperous, and the policy was to bolster incomes