GUNS AND WORDS MANOEUVRES IN VIETNAM ARE NARROWING CHOICES

Press, Volume CVIII, Issue 31730, 13 July 1968, Page 12

GUNS AND WORDS MANOEUVRES IN VIETNAM ARE NARROWING CHOICES

(By BRIAN BEEDHAM, Foreign Editor of the “Economist”)

The closer you look at what is happening in Vietnam the more obvious it seems that the decisions which will eventually bring this war to an end are not being taken in Paris. The peace talks that have been going on there for the last two months are merely the mechanism that will one day ratify the terms of a settlement arranged on the other side of the world. The real decisions will be taken in Vietnam itself.

Curiously, It Is not in the fighting that the most interesting things are happening. The fighting remains bloodily predictable. The Viet Cong and the North Vietnamese are trying to intimidate the population of Saigon, and perhaps pick up a town or two in the northern provinces as well. The Americans and their allies are trying to stop them. The relative success each side achieves will affect the terms of the eventual agreement to a limited degree one way or the other; but what will make the agreement possible is something else. New “Alliance” This something else is the political moves that have been taking shape over the last couple of months. They have happened on both sides, and if they do not exactly point in the same direction they do at least seem to point towards a fairly narrow range of possible outcomes. What the Communists have done is transparent enough. In setting up their new “alliance” of non-Communist worthies, as a separate body from the National Liberation Front, they are in effect nominating their candidates for the coalition government which they hope will emerge fron the peace talks. They have not seriously tried to demonstrate that this “alliance” is in any real sense independent of the Communists. But they have had the sense to realise that their best chance of getting a coalition is to show that their nominees are at any rate technically non-Com-munists. It is the "hawk" pushing the "dove” ahead of him. “Hawks” Removed The response to this on the allied side has been less obvious, but is no less interesting. It has consisted of the removal, by dismissal, demotion or death, of most of the South Vietnamese military men who make up the hard core of Vice-President Ky’s supporters. These were the hawkiest “hawks” of Saigon. The removal of General Loan from command of the national police force, the quiet dismissal of a number of hard - line province leaders, and the accidental death by a misfired rocket of several of the leading men in the Saigon city administration have all had the same result They have deprived Vice-President Ky of his most potent supporters, and Ky himself is now a diminished and increasingly isolated figure. The result of pushing the “hawks” into the background has been to increase the importance of the relatively moderate men around President Thieu and the new Prime Minister, Mr Huong. There are two possible explanations of this realignment of forces in Saigon. The United States, I take it has decided that it is now unlikely to achieve a “Greek solution” in South Vietnam: that is, a settlement in which the Communists would be allowed to operate as a lightly disguised opposition party but would renounce any attempt to influence the composition of the Saigon Government Two Possibilities That leaves two possibilities short of the humble withdrawal that Senator McCarthy seems to advocate. The first, and less dangerous, possibility is to give the Communist cer-

tain veto rights over the composition of the Saigon Government, by which they can exclude the men they consider most hostile to them. The second and riskier one is to admit them into a coalition government in which they might or might not subsequently seize the commanding positions. The realignment in Saigon could be a preparation for either of these courses. The removal, by a combination of deliberate policy and blind chance, of the leading "hawks” around Vice-Presi-dent Ky might tip the wink to the communists that they can play a negative part in saying whom they do not want to see in power in Saigon. Alternatively, it could open

the way for the formation of some sort of coalition made up of the more moderate people In the present Saigon Government plus some representatives of that “alliance” on the other side.

This is where the fighting comes back into it The Communists are plainly trying for the coalition solution. The Americans are still hoping that they can make them settle for something less: probably for some variation of those veto rights. It will not be until the soldiers have fought the present campaign out to an end that we shall know which of these possibilities will form the basis of a settlement As they usually do, guns speak louder than words.