Canadian Election Is Possible In October

Press, Volume CIV, Issue 30828, 13 August 1965, Page 11

Canadian Election Is Possible In October

(From MELVIN SUFKIN. NZFA Special Correspondent ) TORONTO, Aug. 12 Buoyed by public opinion polls that show Liberal Party popularity surviving better than expected, the Canadian Prime Minister, Mr Lester Pearson, is reported . to be thinking seriousI ly of calling an OcItober election. I He has told Cabinet col■agues he will make his mind ■> before the end of August Eli he decides to go ahead will be dissolved after It reconvenes in September. likely election date ttMMwnuld he either October October 25. he decide to wait Bkould be a year or so

before a general election could be called.

The country’s 265 constituencies are about to undergo a drastic redistribution and a vote would be out of the question while political boundaries were being redrawn. Revival of election talk follows a period in which the minority Liberal Government was waiting for reaction to a Royal Commission report on a bribery scandal that touched several prominent Liberal politicians. It involved the pressure of Tovernmer figures to get a suspected narcotics smuggler, Lucien Rivard, released on bail. Put now, more than a month after the report was made public, it appears voters are not impressed with its findings. For in spite of Its political repercussions, including a

minor Cabinet shake-up, the polls show Government popularity only 2 per cent less than in January of this year More important, it is said to have 3 per cent more of the potential vote than it did in the April, 1963, election when it won 129 seats (four short of a clear majority) on 42 per cent of the popular vote. The Conservatives, still divided in their affection for their leader, John Diefenbaker, are reported to have dropped four percentage points to 29 per cent from the last election when they lost power and were relegated to t v Opposition with 95 seats.

The Socialist New Democrats, with 17 seats, are up slightly from 1963, while the splintered Social Credit Party, with two opposing groups totalling 22 seats, is down a little.

The chances of the Liberals winning a majority this time are still only fair, especially since Pearson is no match for Diefenbaker as a grassroots campaigner, but they seem a good bet to pick up at least some seats—and they do not need many. The Prime Minister has managed to get by until now with the support of at least one of the smaller parties. Social Credit has been on his side in about every major vote and the New Democrats have backed him more often than not. But leaders of both groups have been talking about a need for more evidence that suspected corruption in government is being rooted out The Prime Minister may decide to go to the people this year rather than take the chance of being defeated on a motion of non-confidence.

i If he does, he will probably i make his proposal for a nat- ' ional medical care insurance scheme his main issue. He > has suggested such a plan to i be introdiv-ed in 1967. i It would be operated on a ■ 50-50 cost-sharing basis with the 10 provinces. While > most of the provinces have r indicated they support the t idea, not all the provincial Premiers are enthusiastic. i Pearson could therefore • settle on an election as a ■ means of winning a mandate ; to bring in medicare. The main opposition within > the Liberal Party to an early i election is in Quebec which. I with 75 seats—4s of them al- - ready Liberal —is a key province i Government scandals have ! their roots in Quebec politics ) and reform elements in the I province are afraid that the Liberals will not be able to

attract the right sort of candidate without more evidence that corruption has been cleaned out. Ontario, the most populous province and one that gave 52 of its 85 seats to the Liberals, appears fairly secure, and the Liberals are also confident of retaining most of their seats in the four Atlantic provinces. This leaves the four western provinces of Manitoba, Saskatchewan, Alberta and British Columbia as the key: and the Liberals are optimistic because the polls show they have pulled ahead of the Conservatives there for the first time in eight years. This could be important because the Liberals won only 10 of the 70 seats in this region in 1963 and it is here, if anywhere, that they will find the extra seats they need to capture an absolute majority.