Canada May Have Another Minority Govt.

Press, Volume CII, Issue 30056, 14 February 1963, Page 6

Canada May Have Another Minority Govt.

[Specially written for tht NJSJ>X by MELVIN SUFKIN)

TORONTO, February 12. Canada is faced with the worrisome possibility that the General Election on April 8 will fail to alter the conditions that helped to spawn the current political crisis.

i Mr John Diefenbaker’s Conservative Administration I is reeling from the effects of | its defeat in the House of I Commons last week and the I resignation of three Cabinet I Ministers. I But these developments I offer no basis for assuming 1 that Canadian voters will @ automatically send a new f Government to Ottawa with g a clear majority. And if S there is another minority i Government it may be in danger of near-paralysis. ;<J Canadian politicians are not S as adept as their European B counterparts when it comes g to forming coalitions that k can govern with reasonable i efficiency. In fact, on previ■i ous occasions when Canada ; has had a minority Government it has seldom remained ; in power long. And in the 1 succeeding election the voters ? have invariably provided a /. clear working majority tor 2 whatever party they favoured. K • Record Majority S The most spectacular ex- ■ ample was in 1958, when. ■ after a year of minority rule, i Mr Diefenbaker dissolved p Parliament and called an election. He was returned Q with the biggset majority in jg Canadian history. S . This time it would be nor- | mai to expect that, with the R Diefenbaker Government K wracked by dissension, CanaB dians would turn decisively E to the Liberals led by Mr | Lester Pearson. But at pres- ■ ent there is nothing to indill cate with any certainty that a he will be given the majority i he desires. g The Conservatives had 116 a | seats in the ill-fated Parlia- | ment elected last June while ® the Liberals had 99. The | balance of power was in the | hands of Social Credit with I 30 members, and, to a lesser I extent .the New Democratic Party with 19. Social Credit Chances It is possible that if the Liberals mount an effective I campaign they will emerge with a majority of the Commons seats. But the Social Credit Party is a force to be reckoned with. Some political observers are going so far as to predict Social Credit will win as many as 45 of the 75 seats in French-speaking Quebec, where it surprised many by taking 26 at the last election Gains of that magnitude, even in one province, would IIBBIIIBBIBBHBIBBIHBI

tor practical purposes kill Liberal chances ot a dear victory.

Although Mr Pearson in the 1950’s distinguished himself in international diplomacy and won the Nobel Peace Prize for his efforts, he has not had mud: success in the domestic field. And while it would not be difficult to imagine the Conservatives failing to lose at least some bf their present seats, it is dangerous to under-rate Mr Diefenbaker’s prowess as a dynamic cam-

paigner. The Prime Minister’s refusal to commit himself on accepting nuclear warheads may be at the root of the crisis within bis own party, but it must be remembered there are many Canadians strongly opposed to bringing nuclear warheads into Canada. It is questionable whether they would support the Liberals in the light of Mr Pearson’s policy to accept the warheads now and negotiate for their removal later.

When Mr Douglas Harkness resigned as Defence Minister he said the Prime Minister’s indecision on nuclear policy was the jreason.

Basically the same line was taken by the Trade Minister, Mr George Hees, and the associate Defence Minister, Mr Pierre Sevigny, when they resigned last week-end. Economic Problems

However the nuclear policy is far from the most serious of the country’s problems.

Canada’s economy suffered a serious setback last year when foreign investors, whose money is essential to the stability of the currency, lost confidence and began withdrawing their capital

This resulted in a run on the Canadian dollar and led to devaluation and emergency duties as part of a desperate austerity programme aimed at restoring confidence in Canada’s ability to run her affairs efficiently. The latest crisis may once again scare off foreign capital and bring renewed pressure on Canadian currency. It is generally accepted that decisive measures are needed to assure economic growth and it might be difficult to get them approved by Parliament if, after April 8, Canada found itself once again with a minority Government.