Joining The E.E.C. BRITISH PUBLIC OPINION CHANGES

Press, Volume CI, Issue 29763, 5 March 1962, Page 12

Joining The E.E.C. BRITISH PUBLIC OPINION CHANGES

[By

RICHARD DENMAN

of the “Economist";

(From the ’'Economm" Intelligence Unit)

London, February 13.—1 n the last few weeks there has been a sharp change of tone in the reports coming from Brussels on the progress of negotiations about Britain's entry to the Common Market The talks, it appears, have run into difficulties. The mood of euphoria in which they started last autumn, on both sides, has disappeared as the difficulties in the way have become more apparent. Progress is disappointingly slow; and it now seems unlikely that the negotiations can be concluded, as the British Government had hoped, by the autumn. This means that the chances of Britain actually joining at the beginning of next year—the Government's target date—are diminishing. At the same time public opinion in Britain itself seems to be moving somewhat away from the support for Common Market membership that was shown last autumn. To some extent this swing was inevitable. The Conservative Party launched a major campaign to persuade its more influential members to back the Government’s decision last autumn. This campaign reached its peak at the time of the party conference, when the “anti-Europeans'' were overwhelmingly defeated. But it was clear at the time that this did not fully represent the division of opinion within the party. Since then the impetus of the campaign to “sell" Europe has declined; and the anti-Europeans have become better organised and have gained their second wind. Labour Views In the Labour Party, too, feeling is growing against Europe. The leadership of the party is itself divided, and for this reason wants to remain uncommitted, in a position where it can take advantage of any mistakes made or unpopular decisions taken by the Conservatives. These are legitimate political tactics. If Mr Gaitskell can keep his own party united, and if the Conservatives are split—and this is a quite possible combination of circumstances, since there can be little doubt that if Britain signs the Treaty of Rome the terms will be unpalatable to many Conservatives—if this does happen, Mr Gaitskell is obviously well placed to win the next General Election. And if he can do this without committing himself either way on the actual issue of joining the Common Market, his room for manoeuvre in the event of forming a Government will be attractively wide. The trouble with this attitude is that it leaves the partisans for and against Europe in the Labour Party to slog it out, as they are now doing. In this struggle the “anti-Europeans," who are strong both on the Left of the party and on its pro-Com-monwealth Right, are at present definitely winning. Every time the Labour front bench attacks the Government in the Commons on any aspect of the negotiations it pushes the party as a whole one step further into root-and-branch opposition to the Common Market as such. This is an inevitable process. The nature and the job of an Opposition are to oppose Government policy whenever and wherever it can do so with a clear conscience. To say. “We approve of your aims but we disapprove of your methods”—in other words, “We want to join the Six but we think

you're making a mess of the negotiations”—is rather too subtle a line to succeed with. The nature of the political struggle is liable to push the Labour Party increasingly into open opposition to the attempt to join the Six; and because the Conservatives themselves are deeply divided, this is a challenge the Government cannot lightly ignore. Conservative Problems The Government is in any case going through a difficult patch. The Conservative Right is liable to rebel over Rhodesia at any moment, and there are other combustible issues. This explains why the Government itself is adopting a much more cautious line on Europe now than last autumn. It probably feels that this is not the time to reveal the concessions it is prepared to make to enter the Common Market The fact that the negotiations are slow may suit it politically. A more important cause of delay, however, is the attitude of France. The French Government has moved a long way from its position of hostile suspicion of Britain. It novi wants to get Britain in. But there are other things it wants settled first In particular, it wants to complete the negotiations for a new agreement between the Six and France's former African colonies, which are now associated States of the Common Market; and it wants to do this before the negotiations with Britain are completed, because one aspect of these negotiations will be the relations of Britain's former African colonies—Ghana, Nigeria. Sierra Leone, etc.—with the Common Market To put it simply, France wants to get good terms for its own allies and dependencies before it has to consider what to do about Britain's. These two factors combined, plus the intractable nature of the problem to be solved, and the fact that the delay in negotiating a new agricultural policy for the Six themselves put back the timetable, explain the slight but growing sense of frustration in Brussels. Public opinion in Britain —though not the experts—greatly under-estimated the problems last autumn; public opinion may still under-esti-mate the extent of the concessions we shall have to make to get in. Need for Progress Our bargaining position in these negotiations is deplorably weak. The trouble is that the longer the negotiations are protracted, the more public opinion in Britain looks Wee swinging against the Government on this issue. The Government therefore needs to make some progress soon, before the impetus of last year’s favourable swing in public opinion has completely spent itself. At the same time, it must be prepared for major controversy when it does so. Its position is therefore not one to be envied. But Britain’s position if it does not go in is likely to be still more unenviable. For according to the latest figures France and Germany have now definitely caught up with Britain in living standards, for the first time since the Industrial Revolution. This year they will both excel Britain. Britain plans to raise production by 2'4 per cent, Germany by 4 per eent, France by 5 per cent This is a prospect no British Government can accept with complacency.