90-day Weather Forecasts Planned

Press, Volume CI, Issue 29745, 12 February 1962, Page 13

90-day Weather Forecasts Planned

(New Zealand Press Association)

AUCKLAND, Feb. 10. The long-range prediction and understanding of the weather is probably the second most difficult task of world scientists, according to a leading American meteorologist, Dr. J. Namias. “The most difficult problem is probably the understanding of human behaviour.” he said in Auckland today. Dr. Namias has good claims to being the world's leading authority on long-range weather forecasting. As a student and research associate at the Massachusetts Institute at Technology he pioneered extended weather forecasts, and since 1941 he has been head of the U.S. weather bureau's extended forecast branch.

His feats of scientific crys-tal-gazing have included accurate forecasts for the North African invasions in 1942. for which he was awarded a special citation by the Secretary of the Navy. 30-day Forecasts At present, his branch prepares general forecasts for the whole of the United States extending 30, five or three days ahead. “Our 30-day outlooks aren’t designed to allow people to plan a picnic a fortnight in advance, but aim to give a general picture of the weather over the next 30 days," said Dr. Namias. They were very useful for

farmers and research was being carried out into the preparation of 90-day, or seasonal forecasts, but these had not yet come into operation.

Droughts and wet spells could be successfully predicted by the bureau, said Dr. Namias. But a country like New Zealand would have to go a long way before it could introduce such forecasts. though they would be invaluable.

“For one thing, there is the data problem here—you just don’t have enough information. I am amazed at the quality of your maps and forecasts considering the limited amount of information that is available,” he said. “For another, you just can't take over lock, stock and barrel the concepts developed for long-range forecasting overseas. A great deal of research is involved in the development of any scheme of extended forecasting, and it can’t be transferred directly from one area to another.” Weather satellites like the American Tiros and Nimbus series are sure to be of help in prediction. “But were starting to believe there may be a limit to the accuracy of our predictions. Even with a perfect observational network it may be impossible to specify weather in great detail beyond about a week —there will always be some uncertainty,” said Dr. Namias.

“Our aim is to bring that uncertainty to as low a level as is possible—we can never hope to get rid of it.”