Not Very Bright Outlook For New Lamb Season

Press, Volume C, Issue 29626, 23 September 1961, Page 7

Not Very Bright Outlook For New Lamb Season

•'he present outlook for the opening of the 1961-62 export lamb killing season, now only about a month away, is not very bright, but it may not be quite so black as recent price reports from Smithfield may have indicated.

In the last two to three weeks there has been a hopeful firming at Smithfield for New Zealand lamb with the lighter weights gaining up to IJd per lb in two weeks, but the market will have to make further advances yet to clear the 15d per lb floor price for meat at f.o.b. In fact, taking last week’s price for prime 291 b to 361 b in London of 18Jd this represents about 13d per lb. for the meat at f.o.b. in New Zealand, which is still 2d below the floor level, now Jd per lb lower than it was two years ago when deficiency payments were last made on lamb. From the end of June right through until early this month the prime 291 b to 361 b lamb was at a low 17Jd at Smithfield, the same low level as was reached when the market was in the doldrums at the! time the opening export schedule was announced two years ago. Exporters then offered 13d tor the prime 291 b to 361 b lamb and the Export Prices Committee added 21 d out of the meat industry reserve account. If present trends are maintained it seems probable that Smithfield will be somewhat

better than this when the new killing season opens in New Zealand, but the exporters’ schedule, even supposing that no call is made on the meat industry reserve account, may be only about the floor level. Two- years ago when Smithfield was at a low ebb the United Kingdom was in the throes of one of the worst draughts for a hundred years or 'more which resulted in a spate of killing then a sudden drying up of home killed supplies which set New Zealand 291 b to 361 b prime lambs climbing to almost 26d at Smithfield by the end of the year. It has been dry again' in Britain this summer, though apparently not as severe as two years ago. It has, however, been enough to bring in heavy supplies of lambs and beef cattle from British farms, where stock numbers are still mounting, and this has all coincided with a period of the year when, because of the heat, meat eating is at a relatively low level. U.K. Production In the first six months of this year United Kingdom production of meat rose from 735.700 tons in the first six months of last year to 794,700 tons, with beef and mutton and lamb making significant advances. With an increased delivery of lamb from New Zealand—l6s,6o9 tons compared with 159,196 last year —the stage was set for a depressed market.

The factor which may well be influencing the upward movement in lamb prices now is the declining supplies of beef from the Argentine. Writing recently from Buenos Aires a correspondent of Ute “New Zealand Meat Producer’’ said that freezing works officials admitted that exports of chilled beef would not rise above 15,000 tons and might well fall to 10,000 tons a month between now and the end of the year. Frozen beef also they expected to fall 25 per cent, below exports for the corresponding month of last year. For a time the greatly increased quantity of beef off United Kingdom farms tended to counteract the smaller supplies of Argentine beef, but lately the shortage of South American supplies has begun to tell and between the week end-

ing September 8 and 15 Argentine ox hinds jumped from 2s 2d to 2s fid per lb on Smithfield. Higher oeef prices nugiU wed suggest increased interest in lamo. Readers will have noticed that it has been the lighter iambs that have enjoyed the most marked appreciation on bmithfieid this month. The prime 43 to 50it> lamb has snown no movement at all wnile the very lignt lambs have gone up 1,(1. Tnis could be due to over-produc-tion of heavy lambs in New Zealand towards the end of last season. In Store The quantity of New Zealand lamb remaining in store in the United Kingdom for sale before the new season s meat starts to arrive is considerable. At the week ending September 8 it stood at 39,100 tons compared with 18,200 tons a year earlier. This is, however, not so bad as it seems when it is taken into account that on August 12 holdings in New Zealand amounted to 18,580 tons compared with 27,030 tons a year earlier and that at the same time there was about 12,01)0 tohs of meat at sea compared with 14,318 tons at the same stage last year. These figures would reduce the difference in total supplies to much less than the 23,000 tons difference in stocks in the United Kingdom. There are more grounds for optimism about ewe mutton than lamb. The 60,000 tons of ewe mutton processed in New Zealand in the season has been cleared. Japan has been an important factor in this market and to a great ■ measure the satisfactory sale of ewe mutton in the future will depend on New Zealand's ability to hold this market. Up till the end of July, Japan had taken nearly 13.000 tons of New Zealand meat since last October, which is about 4000 tons more than in the previous season. The United Kingdom, however, still takes about twice as much ewe mutton as Japan. A recent report from the Meat Board’s correspondent in Britain pointed out that ewe mutton was an exception to the rule in price trends in that it was selling practically as well as a year ago—a good indication of the value of an alternative market. New Season It seems likely that the new killing season will open I on October 24 or 25. just 1 after Labour Day. The North Canterbury Sheepfarmers’ works at Kaiapoi is' normally operating on the day after Labour Day to handle competition fat lambs from Rangiora show. Last season killing started as early as October 17 but it is unlikely that it will begin so early this year. An opening in the week after Labour Day might indeed be on the early side. The recent wet weather has not been ideal for lamb fattening and the high proportion of ■twins bbrn this season is likely to retard progress. Hawke’s Bay, where the schedule for the new season is generally announced during the'Show, which this year will be held from October 17 to 19, has also had its share of poor weather this season and it would not be inconceivable that it should also not be ready to start as early as usual.