Deeper Recession, Predicted In U.S.

Press, Volume XCVII, Issue 28552, 3 April 1958, Page 19

Deeper Recession, Predicted In U.S.

(.Specially written tor the N Z.P.A. by FRANK OLIVERI

WASHINGTON. A deeper and longer slump is being freely predicted here by economists Republican politicians ar e worrying about the November election and Labour leaders are wondering how high the unemployment figures might go. ' The March unemployment figures, expected to be released early this month, are already causing fear and consternation to many persons. The February figures were bad enough, but many economists and statisticians think they understated the position. These figures consider only those totally unemployed and take no note of those put on parttime by employers. The true February figure is said by some to be the equivalent of 6,000.000 full-time jobs, and the position becomes worse as the slump continues. Of the 5,000.000-odd officially unemployed, more than 1,000,000 have been unemployed for 15 weeks or longer, and the number of those who have drawn the last unemployment insurance cheque to which the law entitles them increases daily. Some recent lay-offs from outdoor jobs were obviously caused by the bad weather which has visited all parts of the country, but many more have been caused by the continuing cut-backs in the metal and machine industries and in motor-car plants. One economist .predicts that the army of workless could easily go to 7,000.000, and will remain high for several months.

Some economists now think the slump will last all the year, and no great improvement is expected until the spring of 1959. In any event, the spring improvement this year is now regarded as having been only a dream. A few persons are talking

of a real depression, but most experts think otherwise, or at least talk otherwise. Some are saying that things could scarcely be worse than they are in the steel and motor-car industries, and that therefore they ought to get better.

The Detroit area, where the motor-car industry is concentrated is suffering from the highest sustained unemployment since the war.

Pittsburgh, capital of the steel industry, is almost as badly off, the industry running at only 50 per cent, of production capacity In New England, unemployment ■ S ®? nera J* Lay-offs are general m the middle west, while southern California, third largest industrial . area of the country, is also having a bad time with heavy lay-offs in the aircraft industry and motor-car assembly plants. The south-eastern part of the country seems better off than most other areas.