N.Z. WEATHER FORECASTS

Press, Volume LXXXIX, Issue 27191, 7 November 1953, Page 8

N.Z. WEATHER FORECASTS

TRANS TASMAN PILOTS CRITICAL

COMMENT BY DIRECTOR OF SERVICE (New Zealand Press Association) WELLINGTON, November 6.

Today, for the second time this week, an incorrect terminal weather forecast for Evans Bay has resulted in a seven-hour delay to the flyingboat due from Sydney at 7.30 a.m. It is also reported that in 12 recent instances when Solent flying-boats have been held at Sydney because of forecasts of bad weather at Wellington, the forecasts have been correct only once.

Forecasts of Evans Bay weather are prepared in Auckland; after the basic material has been secured from Wellington.

Trans-Tasman pilots say that spot forecasts for Auckland are exceptionally good, and that Auckland's “en route” forecasts for the weather across the Tasman are as good as a pilot could obtain anywhere. They say however, that forecasts made for Wellington’s air terminal, though prepared with the utmost care, tend to take second place to the mass of other meteorological work done in Wellington, especially in the preparation of

The forecast for the Wellington terminal reaches Sydney 10 hours before the aircraft is due to land at Evans Bay. Pilots are loth to criticise Wellington forecasting in comparison with Auckland forecasts, because Auckland weather does not have the inconsistencies of Wellington’s weather.'

When these comments were referred to him today, the Director of Meteorological Services (Dr. R. G- Simmers) said he thought the standard of forecasting was improving. Almost the same men were employed forecasting now as during the Second World War, and their work was better because of their greater experience. If mistakes had been made, it was because the service just could not do any better, said Dr. Simmers. Every forecast was made with the greatest possible care. New Zealand forecasters did not make the mistakes made overseas. In the United States, for example, a temperature forecast i could be incorrect by 50 degrees. Such . mistakes could not be made because I New Zealand did not have the extremes of weather experienced in America.

“No-one in the world has yet been able to produce an acceptable svstem of weather forecasting.” said Dr. Simmers. “The system we use does not please us, but it is the best so far evolved for our purposes.”