GENERAL ELECTION PROSPECTS

Press, Volume LXXXVII, Issue 26514, 31 August 1951, Page 8

GENERAL ELECTION

PROSPECTS

Return Of Government ♦ Likely (Bu Our Parliamentary Reporter) When Mpgress results of the General Election are broadcast to-morrow evening it will be the results in 17 marginal seats—those where the sitting member has a majority of fewer than 1000—that will engage the listeners’ greatest interest, for they are the results which may well determine which party i« to govern the country for the next three years. To-morrow’s election, the first to be held on a Salurday since 1943, is more difficult to gauge than any in recent memory. Even the most careful student of all available evidence is frequently well astray, anc| on this occasion there is less evidence and there has been less time in which to study it. Twenty-one months ago there was a general swing against the Labour Government, and the National Party took office with a majority of 12 seats. Just how much, if at all, the opinion of electors capable of swinging the vote has changed in the meantime cannot be assessed with any accuracy. However, the general feeling is that any change will be insufficient to effect a change of government. That opinion is strengthened by the fact that of the 17 marginal seats 11 are held by Labour, and thus within reach of the National Party.

Both parties are confident, genuinely so, and not merely for propaganda. Attendances at meetings, especially Labour candidates’, during the short and sometimes bitter campaign, have been considerably larger than they were in 1949- but enthusiasm or demonstrations at political meetings are notoriously poor guides to results What will determine the fate of the parties is not the voting of members and staunch party supporters. It is the way in which the incalculable number of “silent” electors cast their votes. They are the people with no strong party allegiance, the people who may be seen but are seldom heard at election meetings. The Labour Party bases its confidence on its belief that electors have been convinced that blame for the rise in the cost of living can be laid at the door of the Government, and that it is not, as the Prime Minister (Mr Holland) and his colleagues have explained. attributable to the general price rise overseas and the Korean war. They also believe they have sliown that the Government has not fulfilled election pledges made in 1949 The National Party believes the country will recognise the need for leadership and firmness in dealing with disturbances to the country’s welfare and economy.

Marginal Seats The six National seats where there is a majority of fewer than 1000 are Otaki (374), Palmerston North (518), Oamaru (694), Parnell (960), Wairarapa (963). and Hastings (982). Labour-held marginal seats are Waimarino (202), St. Kilda (331), Gisborne (489). Wellington Central (575), North Dunedin (668), Napier (721), Timaru (832), Waitakere (930), Mount Albert (931), Lyttelton (978), and Dunedin Central (989). On figures, Roskill is not a marginal seat, for the sitting National candidate had a majority of 1415 at the 1949 election. Then, however, there was a third candidate in the field, an Independent Labour candidate, Mr F. Langstone, who was the sitting member. If Mr Langstone’s total vote was added to the official Labour vote, the majority for National would drop to 318. It is the Auckland and the Dunedin marginal seats which will provide the most interest, and, if their results are announced early, will probably be a reliable guide to the general result. Apart from the marginal seats of Parnell, Waitakere, Mount Albert, and Roskill, Auckland has Tamaki, Otahuhu, and North Shore, which were taken from Labour in 1949. Mr D. M. Rae (National) increased his majority in Parnell to 960 from 206 at the last election, when he was opposed by Mr F. W. Schramm, a former Speaker of the House of Representatives. This time he will be opnosed by Mr H. Watt, who stood for Remuera at the last election. It seems unlikely that Mr Watt could succeed where Mr Schramm failed, provided there is no general swing against the Government.

Waitakere is held by the Labour Government’s Attorney-General (Mr H. G. R. Mason) with a 930 majority. It is the Auckland seat which the National Party has the best chance of gaining. Standing against Mr Mason is Mr R. Tapper, a member of the civil administration staff of the Northern Militarv District. In Mount Albert, Mr W. W. Freer represents a seat traditionally held bv Labour and his 1949 majority of 931 appears strong enough to stave off the challenge of Mr R. F. Judson. Roskill is one of the seats on which Labour's hopes are centred. Mr J. Rae will have a strong opponent in Mr P. T. Curran, an unsuccessful candidate for Eden in 1949. His real majority is a little over 300 as practically all the votes that went to Mr Langstone would have gone to Labour in a straight-out contest. Since 1949 the roll has risen bv 1758, many of whom are new State house tenants and a majority of whom are likely to vote for Mr Curran. The contest promises to be one of the closest in the Dominion.

Tamaki is held by Mr E. H. Halstead, who since he entered Parliament after the last election has proved a keen worker for his electorate In winning the seat he gained 1326 votes on the 1943 result, and he seems to be established for a further term in the House.

Without a general swing against the Government. Mr D. J. Eyre, with a majority of 1344 in North Shore, and Mr F. L. A. Gotz, with 1275 in Otahuhu, would also seem likely to be returned.

Other North Island Seats A member of Parliament who took an active part on the side of the watersiders during the waterfront dispute holds the Napier seat. He is Mr A. E. Armstrong, whose majority in 1949 was 721. The National Party believes that his majority is insufficient to counteract the hostile votes he will receive for his part in the strike, and their candidate. Mr P. Tait, has created a good impression at meetings. The smallest majority at the last election was the 202 by which Mr P. Kearins, a popular Labour member, was re-elected for Waimarino. The man who ran him so close, Mr H. A. L. MacPherson. is again his opponent. A veteran Parliamentarian, Mr C. H. Chapman, is another Labour member whose’seat is in danger. In winning Wellington Central in 1949 his majority whs onlv 575. This time he has as his opponent Mrs B. S. ’Burns, who nolled well at her first attempt at politics when she stood against the then Prime Minister (Mr Fraser) at the last election.

The North Island National members with the smallest majorities are Mr ,T. J. Maher (Otaki) with 374 and Mr W. B. Tennent (Palmerston North) with 518. Mr Maher is opposed bv a young Wellington businessman and Mr Maher's. standing as a farmer should be helpful to him in an electorate with a large rural area. Mr Tennent’s_ position is far from sound, for on this occasion he is opposed by Mr J. Hod gens, a candidate whose popularity is certain to gain him votes.

No Changes Likely To the north of Canterbury and on the West Coast no changes of representation are likely. In Westland Mr •L h S, d , a majority of 2700 in 1949 and m Buller Mr C. F. Skinner of the Opposition, is Ftrnn<?lv

In Nelson. Mr E. R. Neal°, the sitting National member, has not been able to conduct a campaign because of illness but he is well known to his constituents and should be returned. He had a majority of 1373 at the last election

Mr T. P. Shand, National member for Marlborough, whose majority at the last election was 1862, has a strong opponent in Mr E. P. Meachen, who has represented the electorate for Labour in the past. Canterbury Seats Only four of the Canterbury seats can be regarded as possible losses, and failing any definite swing the status quo will probably obtain after to-mor-row. The seats which National could win are Timaru and Lyttelton, and the seats which they hold without large majorities are St. Albans and Selwyn. On the majorities the odds are in favour of National, as Mr C. L. Carr’s majority in Timaru is insufficient to warrant the complete confidence of the Labour Party and Mr McCombs's majority is below that of either of the - National members. Immediately to the south of Canterbury is Oamaru, the only electorate to change its representation at the last . election, when Mr T. L. Hayman (National) defeated Mr A. H. Nordmeyer bv 694 votes, the third lowest majority of National members. Mr C. J. Ryan, a 40-year-old stationmaster, is standing against Mr Hayman, a farmer. Any general feeling against the Government will easily change the representation of Oamaru to where it was before 1949 Dunedin’s Electorates

It is in Dunedin, at present without any National Party representation, that the National Party looks for new seats and strenuous efforts by well-known candidates have been the preparations. The Minister of Defence in the Labour Government, Mr F. Jones, held St. Kilda by 331 votes in 1949. He has as his opponent Mr J. G. Barnes, Deputy-Mayor of the city and a wellknown athlete, whose popularity is sure to bring him votes, votes which give him the best chance of becoming a National Party representative of Dunedin in the House.

In the former Mayor (Sir Donald Cameron) the National Partv has

another strong candidate. He will oppose Mr R. Walls in North Dunedin, which seat Mr Wa’ls held by 668 votes at the last election. Sir Donald Cameron’s personal popularity has been shown bv his election to the Mayoralty and his long service to the city will be valuable to him on his first political venture, but his age, 74. may 20 against him with many voters who cons’' , ’t that that is no age for a man to begin Parliamentary life. The Senior Opposition Whip (Mr P. G. Connolly) had a majority of slightly under 1000 at the last election in Dunedin Central. Mr Connollv has been a frequent speaker, and inter-' - lector, in the House and has conducted a particu’arly vigorous campaign for this election. National Party hopes to gain the seat are unlikely to be realised. In the other city seat. Mornington, Mr W. A. Hudson is firmly established with a majority of 4185. one of the highest Labour majorities in 1949. The two large electorates of Central Otago and Wallace will return Mr W. A. Bodkin and Mr T. L Macdonald respectively. Both had substantial majorities when they went back to Parliament in 1949. both are Cabinet Ministers and both have kept well in touch with the needs of their electorates and have advanced their constituents’ claims. In Awarua the National member (Mr G. R. Herron) has a 3179 majority, which makes his position unassailable, and another National member (Mr J. McL. Roy) has a majority which makes certain his return for Clutha. A sitting member who had given good service in Invercargill can be expected to gain the support of voters. Most Invercargill people will think that Mr J. R. Hanan (National) has given that service and will return him, although Dr. F. G. Spurdie can be expected to put up a good fight for Labour. Mr Hanan had a majority of 1159 in 1949. The four Maori electorates have Labour members representing them and all have substantial majorities. Iff Southern Maori the majority of 687 for Mr E. T. Tirikatene appears small, but the total on his electoral roll looks more like that for a pocket borough than for the whole of the South Island.

Even if there is a widespread desire to have a Maori representative on the benches occupied by the National Party, the National candidates face a huge task in trying to win any of the seats. Their best chance may be in Northern Maori where Mr J. C. Henare will oppose the sitting member (Mr T. P. Paikea), who has a majority of 2029.

In the absence of any general swing of votes away from the Government it appears from an examination of electorates that the National Party will be returned. In the South Island it appears to have a better chance than Labour of gaining strength.