THE ELECTION CANTERBURY SEATS

Press, Volume LXXXVII, Issue 26513, 30 August 1951, Page 6

THE ELECTION CANTERBURY SEATS

Four “Marginal” Electorates CHANGES UNLIKELY (By Out Parliamentary Reporter) In only four of the 12 Canterbury electorates does there seem any possibility of a change in party representation at the General Election on Saturday. Those seats are St. Albans and Selwyn, where the Labour Barty has high hopes, and Timaru and Lyttelton, which the National Party believes could easily come its way, though in the case of Lyttelton hopes are probably not nearly so high as when the Prime Minister (Mr Holland) first announced that an election would be held. All the other seats are safe for the sitting candidates. In the city electorates only one—Fendalton—is held by the National Party, The strictly rural seats are all held by Nationalists.

Of the ’'marginal’’ Canterbury seats t“ e one with the lowest majority at the 1949 election is Timaru, where Mr C. L. Carr, who has represented the electorate in the House of Representatives since 1928, has had some hard fights in the past. Mr Carr’s reputation as a local member stands nigh. He has lost few opportunities in the House of advancing Timaru's claims and this, with the advantage any sitting member has will stand him in good stead in what promises to be another close contest. At the last election when the swing against the Labour Government was general throughout New Zealand, Mr Carr was one of the four Labour members who increased their 1946 majorities. In 1946 he was opposed by Mr Jack Acland, who had represented Temuka, a seat which disappeared in the reshuffle of electorates, and who had a large personal following. Mr Carr's majority then dropped to 520, but he increased It to 832 in 1949 when another strong candidate, Mr J. F. Lockington, opposed him. To oppose Mr Carr the National Party has chosen Mr W. L. Richards. Mayor of the city, and a schoolteacher. Because of his position in the community and long service on local bodies, Mr Richards must be conceded a good chance on his first attempt at politics, but considering Mr Carr’s

popularity it is doubtful whether political feeling in Timaru has changed sufficiently in the last 21 .months to ensure a National victory. Family Tradition The McCombs family has held the Lyttelton seat for Labour for many years, though at times the hold has ■been tenuous. The father of the present member. Mr T. H. McCombs, held the seat for 18 years, and on his death his widow represented the electorate until 1935, when it was won decisively by the present member. In spite of the strong grip Mr McCombs, through family associations and his own work as a local member, has had on the seat, the National Party has never regarded Lyttelton as a lost cause. In 1823 Labour nearly lost the seat when, as a result of a tie, the returning officer gave his casting vote In favour of Mr McCombs’s opponent, Mr M. E. Lyons. On petition to the electoral court Mr McCombs again won his seat. Lyttelton is a very “mixed” electorate, It takes in the working-class districts of Woolston and Lyttelton, the select residential suburb 'of Cashmere, a large rural area of Banks Peninsula and the Chatham Islands. In 1946, Mr McCcmbs had a majority of 1543 over Mr E. B. E. Taylor an experienced National Party campaigner, and two years ago It was reduced to 978 by Mr R, R, Beauchamp, a farmer, of Hoon Hay. Now he will meet Mr H. R. Lake, a Christchurch accountant with local body experience who entered the political field of Riccarton at the last election and , polled well against Mr A. McLagan. A fluent speaker, Mr Lake has had some good campaign meetings and has given a good account of himself in handling hostile interjectors.

Mr Watts’* Seat Apart from Oamaru, the majority of 1142 for Mr J. T. Watte in St. Albans in 1949 was the lowest majority of any successful South Island National candidate. It is in St. Albans that tne Government will face its most serious challenge in Canterbury. In 1946 Mr Watts did not know until four days after polling day that he had been elected. On the day of the election his opponent, Mr C. Morgan William*, who had represented the old electorate of Kaiapoi, had a majority, but the final count gave Mr Watts a margin of 86 votes. At the last election the Labour Party confidently expected to win the seat, but Mr Watts’s majority went up to 1142. He was opposed then by Mr George Manning, one of the most popular Labour Party figures in local body affairs for many years. Mr Watts ha* the advantage of being a sitting member and the advantage of the prestige which is attached to a Cabinet Minister. A slight disadvantage is that since hi* appointment to Cabinet rank he has beep an “absentee” member, but that has been offset to a large extent by the good work which Mr J. K. McAlpine, member for Selwyn, has done in looking after Mr Watts’s electorate and that of Mr Holland. Opposing Mr Watts is Mr J. B. eora, a newcomer to politics. Mr ora, who is a schoolteacher, has made a good impression at his election meetings and 1* certain to poll well.

In St. Albans there has been an increase in the number of State houses occupied since the last election. Of course, not all State house tenants vote Labour, but the Labour Party has always counted on a majority In State house areas. To some extent their belief, justified in the past, may be counteracted by the National Government’s policy of allowing tenants to buy State houses, Conte*| in Selwyn In a contest characterised by Its cleanness and lack of personal references, Mr McAlpine held the Selwyn seat in 1949 and increased the majority of 472 in 1946 to 1327.

The electorate is about half rural and half urban, with the urban area containing a number of heavy industries and large State housing areas. That fact that there were many State houses in the area and that Howardville, the pensioners* settlement, was also in the electorate raised the Labour Party’s hopes in 1949. It did not affect the issue then and is unlikely to on this occasion. The roll number has Increased bv 1134. many of whom are in the new housing areas on the outskirts of the metropolitan area.

Mr McAlpine can still count on the goodwill that can always be reckoned with as counting many votes’to a sitting member who has worked hard and kept in touch with individual constituents. His opponent. Mr J. G. Barclay, is no newcomer to politics, held Cabinet rank in the Labour Government and was High Commissioner in Australia. Labour has great hopes of winning the electorate, but National Party supporters are not unduly perturbed and they had an enthusiastic response to canvassing in the suburban areas. Neither Timaru nor Lyttelton has ever been really safe for Labour but thev have been represented for years by Labour members. Jt would appear that no change Is likely and the same would apply fd the two Natipnal-held seats. There Is, however, that fairly large section of voters which Is not seen at election meetings and which has no strong party affiliation. Those who comprise it are, in the main, thoso who stay at home and listen to radio speeches or read the newspapers and form their opinions. It is onlv when votes are counted that anv indication is viven of how they to on c'-t. There would need to be a definite swing one wav or the other to affect anv of the "doubtful” seats in Canterbury. x “Ssfe” Seats The seats in Canterbury which cgn be considered as definitely safe for

the National Party are Fendalton in a h tu cit Y and ‘he rural electorates of Ashburton Hurunul and Waimate. , Por , Jte b ° ur * Sydenham, Christchurch Central, Avon and Riccarton are electorates in which the sitting members have substantia] majorities I? 3^ ei L ha J n J n , IM9 Miss M. B. Howard had the largest majority--5643—0f any Labour candidate, The only electorate which has a rural area is Riccarton, but the electorate is becoming more and more urban. In only one Canterbury electorate— Waimate—is there a candidate apart from those of the two main parties. There, Mr M. J. Hayes is standing for the Social Credit Party. At this stage in New Zealand’s political history Douglas Credit is likely to gain very few converts. >