The Press Monday, November 23, 1932. The Motueka By-Election.

Press, Volume LXVIII, Issue 20715, 28 November 1932, Page 8

The Press Monday, November 23, 1932. The Motueka By-Election.

The by-election for the Motueka seat on Thursday is from one point of view not very important. It cannot influentially alter the of strength in the House of Representatives. If the Coalition candidate is returned, as he should be, the Government Avill actually be helped more by the reassuring vote of the electorate than it can be by the vote and A r oiee of even so promising a politician as Mr Holyoake; and if the Labour candidate should Avin, the result Avould do at least as much to stiffen the Government as to encourage the Opposition. Mr McKenzie's success is likely to be limited to the saving of his deposit. But .from another point of view the contest has considerable interest. When the Leader of the Opposition passed through Christehurch recently on hi.-i Avay to support Mr Webb, he said that, if the Labour Party Avon Motueka, it could look forward to Avinning almost every seat in the Dominion; and while this is a nonsensical "if,"' it directs attention to one significant fact. Labour has not put up a candidate for tho seat since 1925, Avhen Mr Mark Fagau Avas beaten by Mr Hudson, the Reform member, by two to one. 1 u IP2B and 1931 Mr Black, whose death occasions the by-election, had majorities of live or six hundred in straightout contests, the first time against Mr Hudson; the second, against Mr Holyoake. Fn 1928 he stood as a United Party candidate; in .1031, as an Independent. Now the 1925 figures show that the Labour strength of the constituency is small, and the fact that no Labour candidate appeared in the two folloAving general elections shows that tho Labour Party had no reason to think its chances improved. It is noivj more hopeful, though its loud shouts of confidence mean rather that it Avunts votes than that it is sure of them. But so much ?nay be said, that a Labour victory or a marked Labour gain in Motueka Avould carry a warning Avhich tho Government could not ignore or misread. A heavier Labour poll than in 1925 Avould signify little or nothing; a much heavier poll or a majority poll would mean that the Government Avould haA'O to look for further than Motueka for the explanation of its failure, and would be foolish not to barn and profit from it. But it is not easy to believe that Motueka will send Mr Webb to the House, or even give him and his Party much hope of doing better elsewhere. The discontents of tho times are in his favour; the invariable tendency to blame the Government for all loss and misfortune will help him. But largely rural constituencies like Motueka arc not easily swung p.way from plain judgments of plain issues. They know the Labour Party's history and its interests and its aims, and how irreconcilable these are Avith the interests of the country as a Avhole and of rural communities in particular; and they are not likely to be much disturbed in their settled convictions by Mr Holland's promises of plenty of money and guaranteed prices. These remain exactly what they were last December, phrases ballooning about in the air.