WHAT OF THE EAST?

Press, Volume LXIII, Issue 18918, 5 February 1927, Page 17

WHAT OF THE EAST?

H.-CHINA, RUSSIA, AND JAPAN. (arECIAtXT WFIITEV JOB "lit 15T. 39.) (Dt J. MACMJLr.ix Bno«.v, LL.D.) Russia, for a time tributary to Mongols, afterwards felt her way to tho Pacific. A urvi f;ic|or lias appeared in ilio problems of tin? East that makes their solution difficult to foren.e. It is Soviet Russia. Not that Rux<ia had not l ipfor«; lic-n Orientalising. During the latter half of last century it made advance into tho south of Central Asia and put tho peoples bordering on India into unstable cquilibmiiiii, till tho IVujdeh incident mado war with England almost certain in 188-j. Tho result was that Russia boramo an Asiatic power and llicro arose in tho minds of her Government tho ambition to master Asia, as in the thirteenth and fourteenth centuries- the Mongols had, by mustering tho nucleus of Russia, harboured that of mastering all Europe. J'ho Tartar blood left in Russia even m its ruling classes lias doubt [e.-s much to do with that Oriental flair which leads it, into Eastern projects. To reach tho Pacific wa3 her iiini, oven beforo tho timo of Peter tho Great. Ycrmak, a Cossack robber, who had been condemned to death by Ivan tho Tcrriblo, gained a pardon by conquering a considerable part of Siberia and presenting it to the Czar. For fur merchants had been making uso of it as a source of furs. And in tho reign of Catherine <ho First in tho beginning of tho eighteenth century Bchring, a Dane, began that long series of Russian explorations and investigations in tho J acinc, which evidently still continues, if I am to judge by ail elaborate monograph ou the Pacific issued last year by "tho Academy of Sciences of the Union of tho Soviet Socialist Republics" for the Pen-Pacific Congress lield in Tokio. From this wo learn that there wero at least fivo Russian expeditions to tho coast of tho Pacific during tho seventeenth century. Eussia's Bold Brigandage of Manchuria Revealed her Ambition.

it was the building of the transSiberian railway in tho latter part of last century that showed tho trend of all this exploration; and beforo it was finished tho Russian cards were thrown on tho table by the bullying of Japan on hor victory over China into surrendering her prey, the Liaotung Peninsula, and tho practical seizure of it a year or two after. Russia openly adopted a brutat and unashamed nighwaymanship. and, when tho Boxer rebellion gave her the opportunity, bullied the humiliated Oriental giant into the delivering of Manchuria into her hands. She brought her Siberian railways down to an ice-free port, and fortified Port Arthur and Dalny, resolving never to part -with tho proceeds of her brigandage. But tho brigand appetite once fleshed grows portentously, feheventured further east and roused the indignation and war-liko genius of the victor over China by attempting to lay hands on Korea This was to attack the life of Japan,, and all the religious fervour of Japanese patriotism rose to tho occasion, armed with the power that Western methods and long and deliberate preparation now gave it. Tho moment tho war broke out, I could see but ono conclusion, tho defeat and humiliation of tho brigand whose forces wero riddled with corruotion, and were five thousand miles from the base. There is a fnr-scoine delilieratfon about Japan's preparation for the future that is a striking contrast to tho loose-umb-cd cait of Occidental victors. A maxim of one of her greatest soldiers of old was, "After victory, tighten your helmet straps." Successful thoueh she was over the nation that was thought to be the greatest in tho Orient, nnd over that reputed to he the greatest in tho West, she doubled her army and navy after each success.

Bolshevist Russia Sees in tho Orient a New Weapon for Overwhelming the Capitalism of the World. And tho oligarchy that has fallen heir to tho brigand diplomacy and cruel tyranny of the Czarist government has also fallen heir to its Oriental ambitions and projects. But its methods are different; it does not bully, but wheedle. It has learned from the spread of tho great religions the power of propaganda, even when the gospel is not elevating or successful at tho base. From the first, it spent its energies on training its agents in the languages of the countries they were to disintegrate from within Its hrst war maxim is "Get behind the lines and breed anarchy and rebellion. ita gospel is that of destruction, not construction, revolution, not evolution. It is bitterly opposed to the methods ol Nature, which are all m favour or growth instead of eradication ana nihilism To savo from to-day's summer in order to provide agninst the wintry to-morrow, tho basis of btiman progress is hcrcsv to its creed. It kills off tho middlo class or bourgeoisie, and so dost roys a large proportion of tho talent of a people; for out of tho proletariate and labouring section come the additions to tho middlo class by success. Nature's method of selection, and out of tho middle class rise by tho same method the masters of fate. Had « begun bv niving an example to the world of tho success of tho gospel in its own special Russian world, it might have had-some pernianeiit success- but if it succeeds it will leave tho world a sccno of political and social Tt'is this gospclling engine of destruction that has turned its attention to tho East; this it was bound to do when it failed in tho Ucst. even if it were only tho Tartar blood in .its veins and tho legacy » ? Cams* victim had left it. For in tho East «as, one of tho great markets in which tho Occidental bourgeoisie, traded aud found return on their capital; it w.ta one of the bases of .pilalism. To ruin it was one of the surert wava to tho success of tho Marxian gospel. India they tried first as Hindu and Moslem wero at each others throats there. But China, once the republic had wiped out all possibility of stablo and unified government, offered tho most. fertile field for their inflammatory propaganda. .Ihe lack or journals and tho public opinion that i* based upon journal-reading, save unbounded opportunity for agita ore, such as they could never find in the hourgcois countries of tho Vtct-t.

In Canton the Bolsheviks Found the Material Ready for the Anti-for-oign Conflagration. Tliev showed their astuteness in choosing their scene of operation.-; After an attempt on Peking they r« .sorted to tho South, tho source of all Chinese rebellions and revolutions. Thev got hold of Sunyatscn, the agitator against tho empire, and the founder of tho republic. And he died they clung to Canton .as the natural centre of revolution. Into it bad gathered tho restless element that haunted tho rivers and cotuancs ar,<f tho rebellious elements from the moun tains. To attempt their destructive propaganda north of the Yangtse, wi» to court failure, for there the bulk of tho population was agricultural; tLe rich plains that th» tjo great northern rivers had made w>u!d breed little else than a farming community. ■ TO«T know well that they will never be able

to turn tho Chinese, farmers into Bo'fihevikti. Tho best leverage aganut the Occidental and Jc.pancso traders was to lie found in Canton. Into this had collected all the discontented and rettles.« of the re.-iless South. Thro::g}» it had flowed all tho foreign ideas thai hart hi tho past disturbed the peace of the empire. Once they had stirrtd thif inflamntatorr centre to action, ihev could march towards the other treaty ports where already the returned students had found employment as paid agitators and readv material in uneducated coolies recalcitrant against foreign control. It wan easy to find a h'ogan for the movement. Tradition had handed one down that had been effective through all Chinese histnrv; it was "Out with tho Foreigner." " But tho establishment of tlie republic bad made a inw addition to il, jt wis "Down with Imperialism and Imperialists!" The first would work havoc with the prosperity of the merchants and traders, the second would be directed especially against tho British and the Japanese. But there was needed moro than a slogan; thcro must bo a cue l'or passionate hatred. Tho dcalh uf a fewChinese labourers in a Canton riot in 192-j and tho (-hooting of some of a mob of Shanghai strikers by Sikh policemen in 1026, both of them said to be engineered by Russian agitators, supplied tho match for tho conflagration. Tho recent effort at Hankow was somewhat of a fiasco so much restraint did tlio British defenders of the Concession show. Careless though both Chineso and Bolsheviks aro of human life, tho agitators knew that the worst passions would not arise except at the sight or talc of bloodshed; it was their aim, therefore, to have Chineso labourers shot by tho British or tho Japaneso both. It was doubtless the consciousness of this that has made tho British Government refrain from giving a frco hand to tho leaders of their marines; this, too, doubtless, that has mado Japan hold her hand from retaliation when her nationals were endangered or killed. All tho Powers are doing their best to prevent or postpono warfare; that is why tho missionaries aro being called in from all tho interior into somo placo where they can bo safely guarded without bloodshed. Another reason is that tho Bolsheviks count all forms of religion and religioys propaganda as their enemy; propaganda must be their monopoly, Marxianism the only religion. If only they had studied human nature, even Confucian Chinese nature, they would have shrunk' from the superhuman task of attempting to eradicate the religious instinct. Russia makes the Anti-Foreign Movement Anti-Religious and tries to root out the Philanthropic Institutions of the Missions. But all their actions and their crusado reveal that outside of Marxian circles they know human nature oaly theoretically, and not from study of man in the various forms of community. Zinovieff's telegram to the Labour Party during tho English elections, urging revolutions; Moscow's indignant letter to the Trades Council when the General Striko failed; and the whole Bolshevik belief in a world-revolution make patent how childish is their knowledge of mankind. Some of them liko Borodin in Canton have become acquainted with certain phases of Chinese civilisation. and work them for all they are worth. Ono they learned' from the Boxer rising that the anti-foreign tradition of Chineso history takes itß most virulent form when it is turned upon tho missionaries. It is not that tho Chinese are specially dovotcd to their own special forms of worship; as far as I have seen they tako their ritual whether Buddhist or Taoist iu a jaunty, bappy-go-lucky way; tho very existence and spread of Confucianism shows how close to philosophy is their religion, and how new forms liko Buddhism are easily accepted, and soon steeped in their ancient superstitions. And Occidental missionaries knew that they would bnvo littlo chanco for tho spread of their creeds if they devoted all their energies to their propagation. A largo proportion of their work was medical, and tho teaching of Western technique in their farming and trades. I remember visiting the Baptist Mission in Tsinanf u, the capital of Shantung, and seeing the collection of modern farming j. achinerv in the teaching hall, where on marke't days the farmers crowded in to hear lectures on their use, and see slides to illustrate the methods of use; and it was then building a huge medical college and hospital to teach tho Chines.) j odorn medicine. And in the outskirts of Mukden I went over the wards of a magnificent hospital, built by the Chineso traders end merchants for the Presbyterian Mission; sincj I was there a huge medical school has evidently been built by the same help, as I see in a special educational number of the China Medical Journal recently sent me; in it I also bco a photograph of a To-union of the' graduates of the collogo, with Dr. Dugald Chriitie, the pioneer of Chineso medical education, in the centre. Ticro follow descriptions of all tho medical buildings and teachings of missionary societies throughout China. A striking commentary on the malignance of tho Bolshevik agitation that it has been trying to uproot, all this fine effort of various denominations.

That Bussia Means No More Than to Restore China to an Independent Unity is Believed in the South, but not in tho North.

It is chiefly on tho Yangtze and to the south and south-cast of it that this attempt has been mado to overthrow the hospitals and medical schools and benevolent institutions that tho missions of various Christian churches have founded. Chiangkaishck nnd his Russian guides havo got his army up to that river, and seem to hesitate about a fur*hcr northerly movement. Their resolve to fix their capital at Nanchang, just to tho south of the great river, seems to indicate that Bolshevik propaganda has not had tho samo malignant influence over the farmers of the north; and thcro aro indications of a reaction oven in the south. Canton has rioted since Chiang went north, and in his nativo province, Chekiang, to the south of Shanghai, the large city of Ningpo has fallen again into the hands of Sun-Chuan-fang, his opponent. But ho is bound to push further north; in order to connect up with Feng, who, though temporarily worsted, is drawing funds from Moscow, and forming with his peasant army roads from the boundaries of Mongolia through Kansu, so as to mako the' march on Peking easier, and driving the missionaries beforo him. I travelled wit! young Cantonese, who were returning from American universities; and they were all confident that Chiang, with his Cantonese armv, would mako good, and march north; this was beforo lie had attempted to leave tho southern capital or the south-east, and the fulfilment of their prediction seems to give some colour of reality to their further forecasts. They declared that be would defeat the other war lords who an. in the field, and ultimately unify China. That the wish was father to the thought was a suspieior that rushed into the mind when they proceeded to predict that he would then throw off the yoke of Russia and clear China of all Bolshevik influence. A scholarly Chinese delegate to the Pan-Pacific Science Congress from Peking with whom I journeyed to Kobe discussed the position in China with me; and I gathered that he had, like myself, grave doubts as to its reunification. His knowledge of Peking and all that had taken place in the north made him sceptical about the

stability of any Chinese Government that might be set up. China May Fill Russia's Empty Purse and Blake Her tho Master and Devastator of the West. Frr.ni conversations with m™ °J-' Northern China, I judge that fait" £ Bolshevik fair words and promises is not y.-v s!roi:? there. There is a misPimm that it was not merely disinterested generosity that mado the Soviet Union give up tho l.Msmu share of the Boxer indemnity ami oner to abandon all exterritorial rights. Jne eagerness with which it schemes to ».« all non-Chinese elements except its own agitators iettisoned from tho country Knv, s a misgiving as to its ultimalo ambitious. It is not mere evangelistic fervour that inspires its "tm-S }<* u knows what an impossible t:>--k it win be to Bolshcvisc the Cl' : —' f;;f '" cr f' and so to revolutionise China. it « rot blind to tho iiiiosploit-:-! ties of tho country; it has enormous coal and iron fields practically yet untouched; as a market for the manufacturers of a countrv that is both Oriental and Occidental it holds out great prospects, and as a quarry of cheap and virile labour it is unsurpassed. m° people that masters tho exploitation ot China will have tho chance- of _ growing rich. If tho armv that Russia backs with moncv and muuitions advances to complete victory over tho other armies 5u the field, the Bolsheviks will never loosen their grip on a prey «" r JP» ,n commercial and industrial possibihtlea. If thev havo trained and directed the successful army, what vistas it opens out to world-wide ambilioul What vast hordes they could train against recalcitraut aud unconverted Luropcl Stain, the new master of tho Soviet oligarchy, has all tho makings of a Zenß h »?s" n ' he is of Georgian peasant descent from beyond tho Caucasus, and boasts 01 be*ing more, an Oriental than an Occidental; his stalwart form has within it a steel-strong will (whence tho name Lenin gavo him), and a rugged character that, can ruthlessly follow, out, nn aim whilst concealing it at tho bjuio time.

It is true that he differs from the colleagues whom he has ousted from power iu placing less faith in revolutionising the rest of the world than in raising the status and standard of tho Russian peasant first of all. But lio cannot abandon tho destructive propaganda that has become all over tho world tno chief activity of tho Bolsheviks, especially in tho East, whither his own sympathies tend. And China offers an especially attractivo field for the operations of his Government: it is, in the centro and north at least, a land or, peasant farmers like Russia, uneducated and incapablo of organising public opinion or united action; and tho introduction of a professed republican form of government has placed its millions, like those of Knssia, at the mercy of any adventurers who can raiso and pay au armv, especially filled as they uro with the "scorn of the soldier and tho soldier 8 lifo that all Chinese history has given them. There is no limit to tho possibilities of a great organiser with a strong will and an inspiring character and career in this land of hundreds of millions, provided ho has the money to equip, feed, and pay armies. For a large proportion of the peusants have such a hard struggle on their farms to make ends meet, that a drought, a flood, a famine, an epidemic will set tens of thousands, often millions, adrift to save themselves from starvation by any means, fair or foul; and this widespread beggary or banditry is tho natural rocruiting ground for armies. The majority of tho million or more- soldiers that are now in arms throughout China under the various warlords consists of this material. Feng's army in tli3 north-west, in Kansii, and tho borders of Mongolia, is wholly peasant, like himself. It is only tho financial question that puts a limit to numbers. An army will soon strip a province bare of funds, and food, and even labour; and a warlord must have somo other source of revenue than tho region on which ho battens with his army. If ho lasts, we may be quite sure thnt he has some other backing than taxation and plunder. Russia was behind Feng's army in tho north-west. But it is evidently concentrating now on Canton and Chiang's army, and Feng's is fangless for the time. I

The mystery is wheiico Russia gets all the money for these purposes; its manufactures arc run at small profit, and tho factories need renewal or' their plant; whilst their exports and imports are burdened with tho number of offices and offcials that have to authorise them. It must have somo secret source of wealth, somo Sinbad's valley of diamonds, on which it can draw without stint. And with such an Arabian Night's trcasure-houso as the backing of Chinese armies added to the ruthless propaganda throughout the world seems to imply there is no saying how far the Oriental dreams of Soviet Russia might go towards realisation, especially with a powerful personality and Eastern leanings like thoso of Stalin directing them: we know what a nightmare tho nomad hordes of Asia became to Europe, when Zengbis Khan, or Bajazet or Timur, or Othman, armed and led them, and we know, too, what a conquering empire China became when a Mongol or Tartar dynasty sat on its throne. With one-third of *the population of the globe to recruit From and a low standard of living close to tho starvation line behind the recruiting sergeant, what armies might not tho Bolshevists raise, nnd what havoc might not tho Bolshevik craze for destruction work amongst tho civilisations of the world! Nor is it a secret how vigorously Russia is equipping and training her army and especinlly the aenal section of it; it is not only buying layijhlv huge and powerful aeroplanes, but it is erecting, in somo cases in allianco with German firms, factories for their manufacture, and is impressing on the peoples republics, especially its Asiatic peoples, tho passion for flying.

Russia's Opponent in tho North. Changtsolin, has the Master of Korea and Manchuria behind him-

Whether tho Bolsheviks harbour these Oriental dreams or not and whether they are developing the new division of army equipment merely for commerce or amusement, it is fairly clear that they are not helping tho Chinese war lords for mcro amusement. They mean Chiang and his Cantonese army to go hcyond the \angtzo, as soon as tho country is prepared lor it by propaganda, and to junction with Feng's north-west army, which, when the right timo comes, will spring to action and march eastwards, ino chicf obstacle to this advance northwards will bo Cbangtsolin and his Manchurian army. His base is Mukden, which is the centre of Japanese control of Manchuria. It is dificult to think that .no could hold this northern province so long, and with such a firm enp unless Japan were backing him tntn finances and munitions. She has sw£ .-o much capital in it that it s n*Korea, close to her innermost wtere .1 ■• Dairen, and Port Arthur, and the whole Liaotuns peninsula sho *° with so much expenditure of lives that «lic would doubtless count anv attempt to dispossess her a «■ nt'her head, as she would any attempt to seize Korea. Chan*, it is noM*, rash to assume, is her representatrrc. and defence He has also oommana o7shanK: and all the> Chinese.coast on the other side of the \* flow Se» from Mnnchuria and Korea. W«s army from tho south to Peking.

It h difflcclt to belicvo tliat the Cantonese army will challenge Chang and his backer unices Russia has new resources and now navy. If Chiang leads liis Cantoncso army north, ho will leave on his rear and Hank one of tlio outposts of Japan and tho Towers, Sunchuanfang in Shanghai and on tho coast of Chekiang. But .still more significant, he will challenge Changs positions in Shantung and Manchuria, or in other words, challenge tho most efficient and watchful of Eastern nations, Japan. I greatly doubt whether Bolshevik Russia with all her insinuating bravado, will havo tho hardihood to rouso this sleeping tiger; she cannot have forgotten the previous Russo-Japanese war, and the lessons it taught. If she docs incite tlio Cantonese army to giro Hie challenge, it will mean that she has been preparing long for this move, and i ? confident that she has China behind her. She must realise that a eonfii' t with Chang is a repetition of tho conflict with Japan in the Mauehurian field of battle. And without a navy this is to invite defeat. It semis to me that the rcsoluiim to make Nanohang to tho south A the Yangtso, the capital of the new southern State, means realisation >f the difficulties of the northern march. Chiang and his advisers shrink fror.i this foolhardy enterprise, for the present, at least". They will probably tim south-east and trv to regain S'ingpo and the coast of Chekiang: and wlrjn that is achieved, they will clialhigc tho Powers auil .Sunehuanfang in Shanghai. Unfortunately for them, ih.i sea is a factor in tho situation, and tho navies of tho Powers will be drawu into the conflict. It is possible that tho Bolshevik development of fighting aeroplanes may be a. preparation for this dilemma. But tho distanco from tho Russian base makes this improbable. Another Tragedy of the East Staged. Of courso tlio lessons of tho Great War have not been lost on the East, and especially on China. And tho expulsion of the Germans from Shantung gavo tho cuo to the present agitation to drive the foreigners into the sea. Tho Powers all shrink from tho idea of n war with China. And yet how can they endure tlio humiliation of getting thrust out, and all tho property of their subjects being forcibly taken from them? If China had a Government that was a reality, something might bo said for tho movement; but auy that there is is divided and unable to protect cither nationals or foreigners from lawlessness and injustice. Wero tho Chineso to take over tho Customs and fix tho tariff, the interest on tho loans that the Powers havo made to the country would disappear—a courso of action quite in accordance with the principles of their Bolshevik advisors.

As far as one can bcc, tho position is a hopeless impasse, and China cannot help falling to pieces with a Government, an army, and a self-constituted general for eac'' piece. And the only picco that will have stable and vigorous government will be Manchuria, for behind tho Administration will bo the strong hand of Japan. Whether Japan means to do what many of her critics liko tho Russian General Golovin aud Admiral Bubnov, in their book, "The Problem of the Pacific in tho Twentieth Ccutury" (1923), assert sho is going to do, whether in short she means to take command of China is a difficult problem. They seem to have no mere fanciful basis for their assertion in the Twenty-ouo demands which sho presented to tho Chinese Government in tho beginning of 1915, and tho "fifth group" of demands which was kept secret; supported by tho European Governments and America, it refused to agrco to them. Japanese" were to help tho Chincso to polico China, to adviso tho Government on matters political, financial, and military, to join it in operating an arsenal, to bo allowed to build important strategical railways, to have tho right of missionary propaganda, and no foreign capital was to be accepted unless Japan was first consulted. The Russian critics add* "Had China accepted theso conditions, sho would practically cease to exist as an independent nation. This may bo the reason why the Chinese patriots of tho south have so welcomed advice and money and munitions from the Bolshevik Government, which has fallen heir to tho imperialism and tho ambitious Oriental dreams of the Czarist regime; it has oven less scruple than its predecessor in dealing witn other countries, especially with those of the East; and if Japanese diplomacy is secretive and penetrative, BolsneviK diplomacy is even more astute and insinuating. Japan is acting with great reserve, if not timidity, in the present Chinese imbroglio: sho may be trying to allay the suspicions and hostility that these • demands naturally raised in the Chinese mind; whether she will succeed in this is a question of L ime, a very long time. But she cannot remain inactive should the Cantonese army, under Bolshevik incitement, junction with Feng's army and venture through Manchuria to the borders of Korea. Thus, there is staged in China a drama of the future, probably the far future, as both antagonists nnj playing for time and finance, and both see that the exploitation of this the greatest market of the East, as well of its mines, and its vast quniry or virile labour will be o source of great wealth to the winner of the prize.