EUROPE TO-DAY.

Press, Volume LIX, Issue 17882, 1 October 1923, Page 9

EUROPE TO-DAY.

LLOYD GEORGE'S SURVEY,

MARS AND MAMMON.

[The following and all Lloyd George articles copyright 'by United Press of America in all countries, copyright in Australasia by Australian Press, copyright in Britain by "Daily Chronic'.e." Reproduction in full or in nart prohibited.]

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LONDON, September 23

Mr Lloyd George, analysing the European situation to-day, writes:— Corfu shows some improvement, and Fiume is no worse. When a patient is j desperately ill, it ia something that threatened complications are not developing. If the Council of .AmbassndoM can ultimately lure Italy out of Corfu, they will have succeeded in preventing a squalid blow from festering into a dangerous sore. Fiume is back to the negotiation stage. The temperature is distinctly lower there. In France and Germany the process of slow strangulation is proceeding to its impending end. It is a great feat of national endurance that Germany held out so long. Wh*n the end comes, it will be by agreement or by chaos. Since the prospect of arrangement seems remote, the outlook for confusion is distinctly promising. Dr. Sfcresemann will find it difficult to carry Germany with him on any terms of capitulation which will •satisfy M. Poincare. It is M. Poincare's repeated insistence up\>n France's, intention to remain in possession of the most important industrial area of Germany for a whole generation which has prolonged resistance. If, when passive resistance gives way, the French Government proposes magnanimous terms, reconciliation and reparation may still march hand in Land, but M. Poincare- must conciliate two parties. First, there is Imperialist France, which only cares for domin- • ion. The other section is peasant and bourgeois France, which wonts the money back that was used in repairing the devastated areas.

lb is difficult to serve Mara and Mammon, but it hoe 'been done. There is a cloud of witnesses among the war profiteers in all landa who will testify to tho possibility. There may be glory and power in annexing the Ruhr and Rhine to France, but there is no cash ia it for the French peasant, who pre* fers ready cash to the rumble of the distant drum. In the March" elections M. Poincare will want the support of shrewd peasants and rentiers. But' M. Poincare must also think of the forge-masters and financiers, who look with greedy eyes at the infinite possibility of Ruhr coal, Ruhr furnaces and factories. M. Poincare must satisfy the peasant by showing German gold flowing into French coffers, and satisfy the iron and ebeel masters by giving them the prospect of controlling the rich industries of the Ruhr. There is no room for magnanimity in such a predicament.

Reports that come to me from travellers in Germany tell of growing chaos. Robberies for clothes and food are common. Hungry prowlera infest the night in many German cities. The bewilderment of the mark is paralysing business. No one knows what to order and what price to quote. The most agile brain finds it difficult to do business -when millions jump about like grasshoppers on a summer's; day. Life in Berlin, is like an ill-provided lunatic asylum. That nothing worse so far haa happened is a triumph for Germany's discipline and self-restraint, hut things are getting worse. Itespect for auth« ority is weaker and winter is coming. ( Something might be done to improve the situation before winter, if terms can be arranged which will not throw Germany into a revolutionary tumult. In France the jWdwia-Poincare" communique is hailed as a complete ■victory for M. Poincare. In England the Government's tame trumpeter prvK claims Mr Baldwin's triumph. I think M. Poincare persuaded Mr Baldwin that now it is too late for the British Government to take any separate action, as the French Government is in possession of irrefragable proof that Germany is on the point of capitulation. At the 'beat this means that before Christmas France, Belgium, and Italy will be receiving the monthly deliveries of German coal which were interrupted by the Ruhr invasion. As for reparation cash instalments, Germany ia less able to pay than 6he was a year ago; so France will remain in the Ruhr, and will not receive reparations.

The future will depend on German leadership. There may be intervals of integration and localised anarchy, during whioh Germany will be helpless and but the Germans are not' Russians. They are a highly educated and thoroughly trained people, with a deep sense of what is due to the State. They will pull themseres together ultimately, and, when they do, Franc? and Belgium will be cleared out of the Ruhr without any reparations. The Russian Alliance saved France from humiliation after 1870, and Russia is still alive. When she recovers from her wounds and fever, Russia will havo much to say about frontiers imposed upon her weakness. France can prevent Germany from re-arming, but she cannot prevent Germans from re-arm-ing Russia. M. Poincare's - triumph may cost France more than the brutalities of Bismarck cost Germany.