OUR ENGLISH WOOL

Press, Volume XLVIII, Issue 14523, 27 November 1912, Page 7

OUR ENGLISH WOOL

LETTER.

WILL THE BALKAN WAR AFFECT

WOOL VALUES?

(SPECIAIX- WRITTEN FOB "THE PBESS.") BRADFORD, October 18. For the timo being interest very largely centres in tho Balkan question, and upon the forces which, generated by tho martial movements of the contending parties, are operating in other spheres of trade and commerce. After all it is not the amount of raw material, or for that matter the manufactured article, consumed by the South-eastern I portion of Europe, but the financial [ sido of tho question, which directly afi fects wool interests, and is exercising tho minds of those engaged in the toxtilo world. Wo therefore find that everybody to-day is assuming a somewhat different attitude from what has been in evidence during recent months, and all alike say that they will now sit still and sco what is actually going to bo tho outcome of the Balkan affair before committing themselves further. That is tho outstanding feature of the wool's market, and tho situation can be summed up to-day by saying that tho whole trade is calling for a halt, and that "Caution" is tho watchwofd of tho day. MERINOS STEADY AND FIRM. Thero has been a distinct slackening in actual sales during the week ; though Thursday's market was an improvement on what was witnessed last Monday. Somo venture to say that earlier in the week a softening tendency was in evidence, but while it is too much to say that topmakers were disposed to accept less money, it is nevertheless an actual fact that 26_d was taken in more cases than one for average standard Gi'a tops for January delivery. When news came to hand of the opening of tho Melbourne sales, and firm reports also emanated from Sydney, holders soon stiffened their backs, and put up their price at onco to 27d. One cannot fail to observe the present feeling of users. Thero aro to-day plenty offers about at 26_d, but no sellers. Many aro hoping that this Balkan question will bo the means of causing prices to ease, for everybody aliko is wanting a chance to obtain cheaper supplies. Tho fact is not at all remarkable that importers of both merinos and crossbreds aro quito prepared to sacrifice a profit by getting out with their present stocks in order to mako a future profit on imported material, if that can only bo bought cheaper. I havo said all along that no ono likes 'having to face a new season with _4's on a basis of 27_d, and 40's at U2d-l_d. The fact is that practically all the merino and crossbred wool which is at present in hand, is mortgaged^and if values had to decline oven slightly, very few indeed would enrountar any serious loss. What is troubling tho trade the most is; having to face a new. season with prices ivhere they now stand. It is quite'true that growers and selling brokers "down-

s under" cannot sco tho least chance of a easier values, but on this sido there aro those who aro still very confident that g wool will bo cheaper beforo Christmas, I and but for their feelings of reserve, - they would bo freo sellers to-day ot j Gl's at 26_d. For tho moment they j are simply awaiting developments, for x j things aro in such a peculiar state, that they think it wisdom to hold their i hands, and if wool becomes cheaper, j j then it will be time to buy. However, . I cannot see any lower prices as yet . likely. 3 A REASON FOR GERMANY'S I : 'ACTIVITY. * What users on this side cannot yet "! comprehend is tho : determination of ; German buyers to ''prop" colonial mar-' 1 i kets, tho West-Riding , 4 trado being • ; greatly -surprised, at thq "_trength. <lis- >, played at tlie Australian 'sales. This > circumstance appears all the more sur1 . prising in view of the outbreak of hos- »] tilities in the south-eastern part of i j Europe, and if there is any limitation of i j credit, German manufacturers will be j ' . the first to suffer. It will bo reinem- ► bored that a similar surprise was ex- ' i pressed exactly twelve months ago, and ■ | it afterwards transpired that tho Ger- < j man firms who bought wero spinners i arid manufacturers, and not importing | speculators. Tlie same thing is hapj pening to-day. Tho writer conversed j with several German buyers at the re- > cent series of London sales, and they admitted having in hand a fair weight j of new business, several spinners stating that they could see six months ahead, and the operations at Adelaide, Melbourne and Sydney, bespeak the fact that their experience is shared by others. There is no doubt that Bradford is feeling the firmness of colonial selling centres, otherwise we should see importing topmakers quite prepared to accept less for next year's delivery. Today's market is steady and firm, without any pronounced activity. Topmakers are finding a nice little business doing on spot account, but 27_d to 27i[d is a fair mar■i kot price for an average 64's top. Some of tho best makers say they can obtain 28d, but they are exceptions. At the same time, several firms this week have cables that 64s combed out of wool bought at Sydney and Melbourne will I cost 28d, and I do not suppose that tho ' raw material will be bought at Adelaide on Monday at any lower prices. Many havo asked the question this week if tho present is not an opportune ■ timo to inaugurate a "bear' campaign. Some go tho length of saying that if j the opportunity is not seized by BradI ford and the Continental terine markets, it will go by for the coming season, but nobody seems at present prepared to venture on that somewhat dangerous slope. Trade is still gocd, too good for tho majority; they admit that they are well sold ahead, and still have plenty of business offering without having to tako a fraction le_s. When all the outside '''trimming" is pulled oft, tho situation is sound, as is shown by the large consumption which is going on everywhere. "So long as wool continues to sell in tho way it is doing, nobody can grumble. it will be. a thousand pities if tho war develops, and we sec in two months' timo lower prices when fair weights begin to arrivo on this side, but the feeling is general that the Great Powers will keep their hands cut of it, and the trouble will remain local. CROSSBREDS HOLDING THEIR OWN. Thero is not much new to say in ( regard lo cros-breds. Topmakers aro j mostly engaged. on old contracts; the . majority seem comfortably situated, I and are taking a very philosophical j view of the situation. Business has ' perceptibly slowed down during the i past week, which is perfectly natural. | So long as machinery can be kept going, there is not much fear ol prices • easing, but importing topmakers would J < welcome a setback. So far little has J been done by way of "bearing' opera- i ions; in fact, no one seems at present ; disposed to risk the future, although we know it to bo a fact that a few ! firms have taken a trifle less for Janu- j ary, February, and March delivery. 1 There is a great scarcity of _2's ami [ i -G's; 40's rather drag, and although ] j many firms aro quoting lod, is j j nearer the actual selling price, while ( j carded sorts are moving steadily. We ] hear that late on Thursday afternoon j somo rather important contracts were \ fixed up for low crossbred noils for next z year: prices paid wero on a full parity t pith current rates, and in some cases a t fraction more was actually made. Fine noib are just about holding their own, but the demand .remains unabated for _G's to 4_'s. Yarn spinners seem to bo the most troubled about the outbreak of hostilities in South-Eastern Europe, but it is no use assuming a pessimistic mood, for as far as one can see there is S little yet to cause actual despondency, a

| the market on Thursday being, if anyI thing, a shade brighter and more hopeful than on Monday. COMPARISON OF VALUES. j I have said for somo weeks that con- ! dition_ obtain to-day in the' wool world i which are very similar to 1907, there being a good trado everywhere, with a | prospect of a lessened clip fronv Australia, and also general confidence in the future of the raw material. Yet when I come to turn up average quotations during the September-October sales in that year I find that to-day's average prices are generally below what were current thon. I mention this fact because of the repeated statement among buyers that values are to-day getting too high and risky, but' one cannot resist the thought that if the trade were justified in operating at higher values in 1907, surely they are justified in buying on to-day's level. Tho following shows the comparative values of New Zealand and Victorian crossbred wool in 1907 and 1912:

September. September. Average. Average. 1907. 1912. s ds d sds d Grease Crossbred. Victorian — Halfbred, super, 50's—56"s 15 16 12 13 Crossbred, medium, 46's 1 1 1 1_ 1 0 1 0. New Zealand— I Halfbred, super, 50's—SG's 1 3 1 4 1 1* 1 2i Crossbred, me- | dium,46's 1 0_ 1 I'o 11 1 0 Crossbred, j coarse. 40's 0 11* 1 0 010 0 10. Crossbred, coarse, 3(>'s' 011 011 J- 0 9J 0 10 No ono can impartially look at the abovo figures without acknowledging that prices aro on tho wholo fairly high, but in fnco of the present good trade and a certain prospect of less wool from Australia and probably New Zealand, one cannot see much chance of easier values. The outstanding feature of tbe textile trade is that business is good everywhere, and it i.s upon this that hope is placed regarding the future. As I have previously said, the whole industry seems to lie too near tho sheep's back to allow prices to decline much, and. if we had. to see a set-back on account of dearer money and a financial crisis on tho Continent, it could only be temporary. If conditions in Germany remain intact, no ono need havo the least fear about the future.