U.S. PRESIDENCY.

Auckland Star, Volume LIX, Issue 119, 22 May 1928, Page 7

U.S. PRESIDENCY.

FACTORS IN CONTEST. Race Issue Will Play Bis Part. MANY POSSIBILITIES. (Australian and N.Z. Press Association.) NEW YORK, May 21. The apparent victory in the Oregon Democrat primary for Mr. Al. Smith, Governor of New York, will add ten delegates to the impressive following of which he was already assured at the Democrat National Convention for the selection of a Presidential candidate. Efforts are being renewed to arrange for his nomination by acclamation. This intense optimism is very characteristic of American political campaigns when the favourite aspirant for nomination seems to be headed for victory. However, there is another side to it. Mr. Smith must have the solid support of the Southern States to obtain nomination. On Saturday the Southern Baptist Church, with a membership of 3,700,000, and with an immense political influence, at its annual convention at Chattanooga pledged itself to break the party lines rather than to see an "unnamed friend of the liquor interests" become the President of the United States. Considerable discussion occurred before this action was taken, but the threat to cripple the Democrat party is no little menace. Mr. Smith has yet to overcome it before he can obtain the nomination.

The movement for Mr. Smith's nomination by acclamation, however, is of Southern origin. His supporters there are intensely beset by the problem of overcoming the South's inherent suspicion of the Catholic and the "wet." They are nevertheless determined that an issue of a similar .iture may succeed in overcoming the Southern disinclination to nominate Mr. Smith.

These supporters of the Governor have pounced with great glee upon an order issued by Mr. H. C. Hoover, the leading Republican car. lidate, and Secretary of Commerce, abolishing the practice of segregating the negroes from the white employees in his Department. A story is in circulation in connection with that order to the effect that it was due to the wish of the President, Mr. Coolidge, but nevertheless it brings up the race issue. That may very well remove the last vestige of Southern dislike of Mr. Smith, since it is being whispered that he would revoke Mr. Hoover's order if he were elected.

One cannot lay too much stress upon the importance of the race question in the South. Many things can grow from it. For instance Tennessee, which sometimes goes Republican in the national elections, is going solidly Democrat next November.

Alabama, Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, Mississippi, Missouri, South Carolina, Tennessee, Tesas, Utah, and Virginia, with 254 delegates, are classed at present as being opposed to Mr. Smith's nomination. Will the magic of the race issue swing them toward him ? It is possible.

It is, moreover* understood that some pressure is being brought to bear to induce Senator J. Reed, of Missouri, the runner-up in the Democrat contest, to withdraw and to declare for Mr. Smith, but Mr. Reed's attitude is sucli that he is not likely to yield. He holds that a good general does not surrender his army when "his skirmish line" is driven back.

Mr. Reed may not succeed in securing nomination himself, but as 734 Democrat delegates are needed to assuie nomination it can be seen that he may possibly control enough delegates. These, added to the delegates of the Southern States opposed to Mr. Smith, may block the latter's nomination at the last, moment.

The position of Mr. Hoover, in spite of his defeat in Indiana, continues to be the best of any of the Republican aspirants. His friends claim that 500 delegates will vote for him. Only 04."i votes are required for nomination. Mr. Hoover's less optimistic supporters are inclined to be a little bitter about what they call the "Lowden-Dawes game." referring to the activities of the two rival Republican candidates, Mr. F. O. Lowden, ex-Governor of Illinois, and the vice-President, Mr. C. G. Dawes.

This "game" consists in keeping Mr. Lowden before the public eye as an important contender for the Presidential nomination, while actually this honour is sought for Mr. Dawes, who continues to be probably the least discussed of all the possible nominees.

Mr. Low den's line of political argument is the same as it was in 1920 and in 1924, namely, agricultural relief. He came three days ago to New York, ami in this frankly and even brutallv industrial and financial centre he would talk of nothing but the farmer and his needs.

Some commentors have gone so far as to say Mr. Lowden was a farmer come to the city.

Mr. Hoover's friends are far trom losing sight of Mr. Lowden's sharp and unwavering line of attack. They coin:'.cr it by laying stress upon Mr. Hoover's great popular appeal. A manifesto issued last evening by his Washington manager stated: —

The convincing tiling about Air. Hoover's candidature has been the fact that his strength is confined to no etas*. Probably the manager, however, did not forget that the very same argument will be advanced on behalf of Mr. Dawes at Kansas City. Mr. Hoover's supporters would like it better if Mr. Dawes" candidature were brought out into the open.