WAY OF THE PROPHET

Auckland Star, Volume XLVI, Issue 70, 23 March 1915, Page 6

WAY OF THE PROPHET

IN THE MATTER OF WEATHER. PREDICTIONS THAT GO WRONG AUCKLAND'S QUAINT RECORD. The weather is frequently referred to tut a fickle jade, hilt what about the weather prophet? Auckland has juet •been through a remarkable (summer, phenomenally dry for the most part, but culminating in tropical downpours of a most unusual character. For instance, during the last six days over four inches of rain ha« fallen, representing about 400 tons of water to the acre. Presumably no one has been more surprised than the Government meteorologist, the Rev. D. C. Bai.ee, for his weather forecasts somehow seemed all amice. For instance, a week ago to-day Auckland people wondered what the weather would be like for the holiday, St. Patrick's Day. On that day Mr. Bates' prognostication read: "Prospect of fino weaH-her. Dajß bright, nights cold. Barometer hae a rising tendency." Holi-day-makere who ventured out on the Wednesday morning, lightly clad in summer clothing, remetnlier that it rained the live-long day. 75 points being reoonled. (>n the 17th Air. Bates iseued a further forecast: "Weather appears likely to be cloudy and unsettled at times. Tides good; seas moderate." Am-klaJiders know that the weather was certainly "unsettled." They also knowthat the se,is were not moderate. It kept on raining, and every bay along the East Coast was sheltering steamers and small craft, which were unwilling to face the gale. On Thursday Mr. Bates telegraphed "rain probable." It was no probability: it vac a certainty, and another !).-> points fell. List evening Mr. Bates , forecast read: "Wind will veer to south, nip-ht cold and showerr. Barometer rising." It ehowered, it rained, it teemed. From 7 p.m. until 7 a.m. it never ceased, and deepite the weather prophet's promise an inch and three-quarters was recorded hi the 12 hours. A BRIEF REVIEW. Just as interesting is a etudv of the Government metorologist> reports during the earlier part of tfie summer. On the evening prior tf> Anniversary Day prospective holiday-makers were informed that they might "expect warm and humid conditions, with increasing haze and cloudiness. Barometer shows little movement, but falling shortly." That hardly prepared the public for a downpour of over two inches. Again, take February. That was tiie driest month on record for many a long day, only a little over half ail inch falling throughout the month, and only three slightly damp dave being recorded. Yet, Mr. nates would have had the city man armed each day with an umbrella, the farmer building hopes on eerly winter feed, and the mariner making ready for heavy weather—in each and every case without the slightest justification, since there were only three days on which slight showers fell, the biggest fall on any one day not representing more than a quarter of an inch. Summarised, Mr. Bates' predictions in February ran as follows:—2nd: Expect dull 'weather; barometer falling after 30 hours. 3rd: Change coming. 4th: Weather cloudy and unsettled, with rain following. sth; Barometer will fall after 24 hours, (itii: Misty rain is to he expected. Bth: Weather will probably prove cold and showery. Sea rough, Jrch: Barometer has a tendency to fall soon. 10th: Weather clouding over, rain later. 11th: Weather cloudy. 12th: Barometer has a rising tendency. 13th: Weather overcast expect very low barometric pressure, loth: Changeable, with passing showers. Kith: Barometer will fall after 24 hours. 17th: Squally and changeable with scattered showers; sea rough. 18th: Cloudy and unsettled, lftth. Cool anil changeable. 20th: Barometer will fall in 20 hours. 22nd: Much rain is to be expected; barometer falling. 23rd: Rain later. 24th: Weather will be dull with scattered showers. 26th: Indications for electrical disturbances. 27th: Rain probable. 28th: Wind freshening for a storm from the west alter 48 hours. A DIFFICULT UNDERTAKING. Krom Mr. Bat<e* point of view it hae to be admitted that the difficulties of w<>a.t.ber prognostications are considerable. Iv Australia the Government Metoorol'ogLjt hae a vast area from whioh to receive reports upon which to base 'his forecaste. In New Zealand tire climate has to be oomeidered in relation to foirr main features: (1) Ifas position, •stretching for nearly 1,000 miles southward of latitude 34deg. iS.: (2) its insular oonditron, situated ac it is in the widest ocean in the world, from which no part, of the country i» distant more nh'.in 75 miles: (3) Uβ physical feature*, mountain cl»ins running mostly north and Bout'h, end affording different aspects, and (4) the w<v,i.tflwr changes to which -three parts of the caTtih are subjected. HOW FARMERS ARE AFFECTED. The question of weather pred.'etione is one in w*hidh the Auckland Farmers' Union had 'taken some interest, and an afeberapt was made laet year to obtain meteorological reporte which would be more direcWly applicable to Jocal oonditfons. Jf the farmer can be told, 24 hours ahead, what the weather is likely to be, die can wibh more confidence undertake (harvesting or cropping operations. Wrtlh this object in view tftw- Union made arrangements with Mr. Devereaux, F.R.A.S., of Waftii, aTid a very satisfactory eervice was maintained until Mr. Devereaux left itflie district. The fact that the beat known meteoroliogiet in Außtrataeia, Mr. Clement Wragge, ie mow- a resident of Auckland should be a point worthy of consideration if the Parmere' Union reeoivee to proceed 'further in ite desire to obtain local weattaeT forecasts. A MARINER'S OPINION. Captain Nead, well-known in marine circles, erstwhile harbourmaster at One- ! liunga, and ateo art one time captain of the Government steuuw Hinemoa, was tftiis morning asked by a "Star" ■representative how master mariners view the Government weather reporte. .On the wihole, Captain Neal eaid be thought they were to be regairded us satisfactory, since New Zealand wue in euoh a peculiar position geographically that it was difficult for a meteorologist to make a definite prognostication in regard to each part of the Dominion. Mr. Bates, no doubt, wee largely guided by the report* telegraphed to him da% from each part of the Donmraom Likewise be was guided by reports cent from Sydney and Norfolk Island. But ftormn passing tjhrough tfeoec places might very easily be deflected When creasing the intervening ' e-bretoh of ocean, and in t.hie connection Captain X«al euggeßte that if am arrangement were made, wthereby ships two or three hundmed miles oirt to eea could enpIply wireltwe indications of weather eondrt.ione, tihe meteorologist in Wellington J would be able to iesu« his forecast* with [greater accume;.