POPULATE OR PERISH!

Cue (NZERS), Issue 33, 15 October 1945, Page 31

POPULATE OR PERISH!

HEN the results of the census ” taken in New Zealand last month are published they will furnish a valuable survey of population trends. At a time when the post-war reconstruction plans of the Dominion are being shaped extremely useful statistics will be made available upon which to base measures aimed at meeting the urgent domestic issues of rehabilitation and housing. They will close a gap of nine years— the last census was taken in 1936 —in the information offering as to social and industrial tendencies; and they will assist the readjustment of electoral boundaries in time for next years general election. But they will have yet another result. Once again they will serve to underline, as have returns from census after census in years gone by, the inescapable fact that New Zealand, for a country with a century of progress and development behind it, is still under-populated. Not that the position has eluded notice in the past 'far from it. The Government, on the contrary, has indicated its desire for a greater population in the Dominion and its recognition of the importance of such an expansion to the development of the country’s resources. On the principle of first things first, however, it has made clear its inability to contemplate entering on immigration commitments until it has dealt with

the rehabilitation of men discharged from the New Zealand forces and remedied the Dominion’s extreme housing 1 shortage. For the time being, therefore, the matter stands in abeyance. The New Zealand Government, is ready to welcome migrants from the United Kingdom and other parts of the British Commonwealth who do not require special assistance, financial or otherwise, in establishing themselves in the Dominion, but until rehabilitation and housing problems have been overcome there is to be no planned programme of assisted immigration. Although the question of increasing the Dominion’s population has received a good deal of attention for a number of years, little unanimity has been apparent as to the extent to which that expansion should be carried out. New Zealand’s High Commissioner in London, Mr. W. J. Jordan, gave a lead a short time ago when he made the statement that New Zealand would need three million immigrants after the war. Mr. Jordon, it may be assumed, is acquainted with what is in the Government’s mind, and his assertion may indicate an'immediate population goal of five million. Less significant, but equally interesting, was the statement made some months ago by the deputy-J > rime Minister of Aus tralia, Mr. F. M. ! Forde, that' New

Zealand was destined to have a population of five million people, and ultimately one of ten million. Whatever the figure aimed at, there can be no side-tracking the urgency of the matter, and sooner or later, in two years or five, or possibly even ten, it will demand action. The reasons, of course, are obvious —the full development of the Dominion's resources, as the Government has itself pointed out. is dependent upon population expansion. But the over-riding consideration is that of future security. Three years ago this fact was driven home when Japan began her career of conquest in the Pacific, leaving both New Zealand and Australia painfully aware that from a defence point of view they were hopelessly outnumbered. Through a fortunate combination of circumstances, which they could not have counted upon to occur, their own efforts to protect themselves were supplemented enormously by those of the United States. The danger has now passed, but the lesson has been learned. There is no immediate prospect, for reasons reflected in the country’s vital statistics, that New Zealand’s population needs will be met to any extent by natural increase. Official figures reveal 'that between 1878 and 1944 the Dominion’s birth-rate declined from 41.96 to 21.58 per thousand of population. The marriage rates for 1939 and 1940 were each higher than those for any previous recorded year, yet the birth-rates for 1941 and 1942, the highest in the last twenty years, were each lower than those for any of the forty-six years from 1872 to 1918, and were little higher than the predepression rates. The size of the average family is not a reliable indication of whether or not a population is reproducing itself. The first impression that an average family of two children should be sufficient is dispelled by the fact that of those born, some die before reaching

maturity, some do not marry, and some who do marry are incapable of having children. To meet those losses in each generation an average family of three to four children would be necessary, and families of that size do not appear to be the rule these days. Rather is the average New Zealand family a little more than two, which is barely sufficient to provide a natural increase that will maintain the population. , The expansion, and even maintenance, of the Dominion’s population thus depends on what the future may bring in the way of planned immigration. The question arises: from where are the needed immigrants to be drawn? Few will contest the desirability, if there must be immigration, of confining it as nearly as possible to persons of British stock. There appear to be two schools of opinion in this connection. One leans to the view that in the years of post-war reconstruction Britain will be anxious to keep all her able-bodied men at home; the other contends that a great number of British families intend to emigrate as soon as arrangements can be made. One of the leading figures behind the movement for immigration in New Zealand, Sir Clutha Mackenzie, maintains that from the British fighting forces at present in process of demobilisation the Dominion would not have the slightest difficulty in recruiting four hundred thousand ’’splendid young people, made up of 150, . men and 250,000 young wives and children”. He has pointed out, however, that it may be a great deal more difficult to attract immigrants in a few years, when men from the British fighting services have settled down, than it would be now, when prospective. immigrants are making up their minds as to their future. There is little doubt that if immigrants in sufficient -numbers could not be obtained from Britain, people from the Scandinavian countries would

make suitable settlers for New Zealand— as they have in the —but there is an added difficulty in this connection in that the birth-rates in these countries have become dangerously low. The countries of south-eastern Europe offer a better proposition as far as numbers are concerned, but there is no guarantee that their governments would let them come, and in any case it would probably not be wise to have a large number of people in New Zealand who were not of British stock. Infinitely preferable from all points of view, in any endeavours to increase the Dominion’s population

would be a planned scheme embracing a combination of a natural increase—the raising of the birth-rate and the lowering of the death-rateand the bringing in of British immigrants. By those who favour systematic immigration it is contended that the introduction to the country of hundreds of thousands of new inhabitants would not threaten employment stability; it would, on the contrary, be a big factor in providing employment, as an expanding population means a growing market for all products. A 25 per cent, increase in population automatically means a 25 per cent, increase in the amount of work offering for carpenters, ■electricians, painters, doctors, dentists, teachers and- workers in -every class.

No large-scale movement could be achieved without difficulties and inconveniences, and no matter how carefully laid any future immigration plans may be the influx must be accompanied by a process of adjustment. (Probably, it would be advisable, when the time comes, for the Dominion to act not independently but in concert with other nations of the Commonwealth. In a recent article in the ’’Sunday Express,” London, Lord Strathspey advanced the suggestion that a permanent organisation should be set up as soon as possible, under the aegis of the British and Empire Governments, to act as an information centre and control room for Empire population movements. Its files would record officially, month by month, just how many immigrants of what ages, sex and occupations were needed in Canada, Australia, New Zealand and so on; just how many immigrants of what categories Britain and each other country could 1 spare; how each trade and group could best be served in each country; and how suitable emigrants could be attracted and helped to make the passage and find suitable new employment and homes. It is possible that the people of New Zealand would be happier and better off if the population of the country remained at about a million and ahalf instead of being increased to five millions, with all the reshuffle and adjustment that that would entail, but it is problematical whether the country can be held indefinitely without population. The war is over and for the moment the danger has passed. But without knowledge of what the future holds in store there can be no guarantee that the danger may not some day return. Not long before the war New Zealand heard the slogan, ’’Populate or Perish I” from those who- believed a greatly increased population vital to the defence of the Dominion. In spite of the passing of the recent crisis that slogan will have to be borne in mind in the coming years, - •.