The New Zealand Tablet THURSDAY, DECEMBER 7, 1916. POLITICS AND THE WAR

New Zealand Tablet, 7 December 1916, Page 33

The New Zealand Tablet THURSDAY, DECEMBER 7, 1916. POLITICS AND THE WAR

SN the early stages of the present struggle press writers of the 1 expert ’ type were fond of telling us that it was and would be a psychological ’ war, and there is a sense, of course, in which that is true. But as events of the past few . weeks have abundantly shown it is becoming, also, more and more markedly, a political war. Not one of the great belligerent countries but has its political ferment, or its political dissension, division; or dissatisfaction. In Britain the discontent has shown itself in the agitation—whether spontaneous and

, - ■ * • • -■ . l '~ genuine or merely engineered for party purposes is not easy at this distance to determine—for the removal of Mr. Asquith from a position of active responsibility tor war administration. At the moment of writing, it appears that the trouble has been smoothed over, though the personnel of the reconstructed War Council has not yet been made public. Germany, too, has her political difficulties, the chief of which is a determined movement for the removal of the Imperial Chancellor, Bethmann-Hqllweg movement which so far has failed to attain its object. So important is this political development in the fatherland that the position of Bethmann-Hqllweg affords a very real and valuable political key to the military situation. As* long as Bethmann-Hollweg remains at the head of the purely political combination in Berlin, the world may rest assured that no intolerable military pressure has been brought to bear upon Germany. The appearance in the capacity of German Chancellor of such a man as mice von Billow would encourage the French and the English beyond measure. Even if the Prince—whom the Emperor is said to dislike—did not return to his old post, the resignation of Bethmann-Hollweg would mean the last desperate stand of the Prussian Junker m the taco of a world collapsing about his ears. It would indicate that the War Lords no longer had the country behind them; it would mean, in short, something very like the beginning of the end.

But of all the belligerents, Russia furnishes the most striking illustration of the way in which the political strings have been pulled to control the course and crisis of -the war. It is little more than six months ago since Mr. Stunner, a noted aristocrat and reactionary with an unmistakably German name, was appointed Premier in the Russian Government. There is no doubt that, in spite of his professed loyalty to Russia s western ally, Stunner was distinctly opposed ■ to the war. The new Russian Premier regarded the war as the gigantic mistake, of that commercialised imperialism which first won England and later took root in. Germany. Wisdom, according to him, suggested a termination of the struggle before the masses in Europe get out of hand. While conceding that until Paris gives the word the Czar must, be for war, he held markedly aloof from bellicose Pan-Slav cliques like that ° ... . Grand Duke Nicolas. This feature of his political temperament made him, to the German press ‘ a welcome exchange for Goremykin. Immediately upon his appointment, German journalists received orders from theHiead of the press-bureau at the Wilhelms trasse to annex Premier Sturmer— to make much of his failure to- change his German name, to dwell upon his freedom from the Jingo spirit, to suggest that he was sick of the war. The Norddeutsche Alh/emetne Zeitung and its inspired Berlin contemporaries promptly took up the parable, and dwelt upon the wickedness of England in thrusting herself between Germany and Russia as an interested third party making trouble. This was the cue of the organs of the Wilhelmstrasse to prove that Berlin and Petrograd were on the best of terms until Downing street began the intrigues ending in the Entente, the admission of John Bull into the Dual Alliance. These insinuations were ridiculed by leading Russian papers, but the leaven quickly began to work & Organs of the Central Powers, especially Austrian organs, reported a disillusion in Petrograd society on the subject of England. Symptoms multiplied, according to the Vienna Reichspost, ,of a profound reaction against John Bull m the Muscovite mind. England observed the Neue Freie Presse, promised to wfn the Dardanelles. In Salonica Russia has no fish to fry The J Petrograd correspondent of the London Times alluded not long ago to Russian disparagement of British prowess. It will be remembered that Ambassador Buchanan denied ‘ malicious ’ reports to the effect that if Russia and England were not in harmony Foreign Minister Sasonoff emphasised the cordiality of

relations between his Government and that of Sir Edward Grey. These declarations in public simply revealed to the Vienna dailies that an uneasy something in the minds of the Allies made them protest too much'. Russian popular opinion, according to the declaration of the Nene Freie Fresse, was anti-English. The situation became so serious that drastic action had to be taken; and, accordingly, the late cables announce" that Sturmer has been deposed, as being concerned in the bad organisation of the Russian food supplies and in an attempt to promote a patched-up peace. If professions go for anything, the new Premier, together with the Czar and Duma, is solidly with the'Allies. ‘ When the Duma re-opened,’ says the cable, ‘the Premier (General Trepoff) stated that Russia would never -lay down her arms till complete victory had been attained, whatever difficulties and temporary checks were encountered.’

For the moment these important political happenings are over-shadowed by the events near Bucharest, and the world is watching with eager interest the great conflict between Rumania and the German Powers. The invasion has been organised by Hindenburg, and is being carried out by the two foremost generals of Germany, Falkenhayn and Mackensen. What defeat or victory will mean has been admirably indicated by Professor N. Basilesco, a member of the Rumanian Parliament, in a letter to the London Times. ‘ A victorious Rumania means the cutting of communications between the Austro-Germans and their Turco-Bul-garian allies. It means the crushing of AustriaHungary, that is to say, an open door into Germany ; and, sooner or later, the defeat of Germany herself. The defeat -of Rumania would mean, on the other hand, the consolidation of German mastery from the North Sea to the Persian Gulf, the invasion of Russia from the south, by way of Bessarabia, the control of the Black Sea, and perhaps decisive victory in the East. Germany therefore feels that the Rumanian thorn must be extracted from her vulnerable heel, and that quickly. By the defeat of Rumania the authority of Germany in the East would become absolute. * All Eastern States, including Austria-Hungary, would be incorporated or -placed in a feudal relationship to the German Empire. Aggrandised by their alliance with Germany, the Bulgarians would be riveted to her. Turkey has already become a kind of German Morocco, and would fall into the position of a German colony. Serbia would no longer exist, and Rumania would become an Eastern Reichsland. Alongside of these military and ’ political motives run the economic interests that iirge Germany to crush Rumania. The Germans have lent to the Rumanian State nearly <£80,000,000. They have, besides. invested in Rumanian banks, trade and industry more than .£40,000,000. . . . By the conquest of Rumania, Germany would secure immense stores of corn, petroleum, benzine, mineral oils, salt, and timber; a good railway system, and the Danube as means of transport, besides all the crops which the fertile soil of Rumania con produce. The spectre of famine would be for ever banished from the German Empire. Could they once get Rumania into their grasp, the Germans would never relax their hold.’ In the light of Professor Basilesco’s facts, it is easy to understand why Germany was willing to take the great hazard, and to stake every available resource in the effort to secure so tempting a prize.