Current Topics

New Zealand Tablet, 16 December 1915, Page 21

Current Topics

The Judas of the Balkans Probably King Ferdinand of Bulgaria troubles very little about what anybody may think about him, but if anything at all could make him feel small it would surely be the scalding telegram sent to him by his own cousin, the Due de Montnensier. It was in these scathing terms:— Cousin,— -Three years ago, after your victories over the Turks, I sent you my warm congratulations. I was proud of the. relationship between us, I followed with pride the progress of what you yourself termed tlt.e "Holy Crusade," and I divined your soul's secret ambition to make your charger's hoofs ring upon the steps of St. Sophia of Constantinople. To-day, bursting outrageously the ties of gratitude which-bind you to Russia, who set Bulgaria free, betraying . the national aspirations of your people, you, a Prince of French blood, threw yourself into the arms of those very Turks, your enemies of yesterday, who have now become in addition the enemies of France. Given the choice between the generous and noble soul of France shedding her blood in defence of her threatened homes, between those glorious Allies generously fighting for the noblest of causes, that of the liberty of the peoples; and the band of barbarians, pillagers, assassins, and traitors, your degenerate heart is drawn towards the latter. Your saintly .mother, my aunt Clementine, daughter of a King of France, and herself a faithful Frenchwoman; your uncles, those noble, unsullied soldiers, Orleans, Aumale, Ncmours, and. Chartres, if they hear the earth's uproar, must rise .in their graves to hurl their curse in your face. And I, who so often sent you my affectionate and loving wishes, especially on your name day, which is mine also—l, who saw in you a son of France doing honor to his house, disown you now. 1 know you no more ; I abandon you to your apostasies, your remorse, your Turks, and your Bodies! ' Ferdinand of Orleans, 'Duke of Montpeusier.'

Mathematics and the War We are a little distrustful of dogmatic mathematical predictions regarding the war, for the war, somehow, does not seem to proceed on mathematical lines, and mathematical predictions, like all the others, have a habit -of being falsified by the event. There must, however, be. some place for figures, statistics, and calculations ; and if there be any virtue or value at all in conclusions drawn from arithmetical reckonings it would seem clear that it is only a matter of time when the tide must turn definitely and strongly Against the Central Powers. According to official statements, the war has hut to continue to arrive by an almost mathematical process at the term which the Allies desire. For months past the War Offices of every Allied Power have been absorbed in a calculation in which every kind of intelligence and evidence procurable has been used, and the outcome of which, we are informed, is a result which is very nearly the same in the case of every competent observer. The figures have been corrected under every possible check and.counter-check, and the general result is thus stated by Mr. Hilaire Belloc : —'No one in Europe occupying such a positionof the hundreds, or rather thousands, engaged in the work— the decline in the enemy's effectives later than the turn of the New \ Year. No one puts it earlier than somewhere in the month of November.' In other words, it is affirmed, with what the authorities regard as practically -mathematical certainty, that at the present moment the enemy is coming to the end of his reserve of men-. The method of calculation is quite simple. It is known as a matter of certain knowledge (without any guess-work) that the enemy must use upon, his various fronts and their communications not less than five million men. Within : a certain margin of error his rate of wastage is

known, and also his total man-power. If the rate of wastage continues : (as»it has) it is a mere ■ matter of elementary arithmetic to work out at what date his -units can no longer be kept :up to their full strength. When that point is reached it is said that his ‘ effectives begin to decline and according to the official calculations that period has now practically arrived. It is, perhaps, a - realisation of this fact that constrained Herr Harden to declare, in his Berlin lecture the otherday : ‘ Germany -must avoid a war of attrition at all costs.’ It is satisfactory to know that in the case of the Allies, as a whole/ a different state of things prevails. According to Mr. Belloc, whether we turn to Russia, to Britain, to Italy, or even to France, we find everywhere that the reserve of man-power for keeping units in the field at their full strength is ample’, and the end of it is not even in sight. It is upon the two great fronts, the Russian and the Western, that the decline of enemy numbers will produce the most striking results; and it is there, and not in south-eastern Europe, that the final decision will be made.

German Business Activity ' All reports that Germany was seeking peace,' said Dr. von Bethmann-HoUweg in his speech in the -Reichstag last week, ' were foolish legends, which "the Entente Powers were spreading in order to cover their military failures.' German peace reports may or may not be legendary, but it is certainly the case—and the fact is surely not altogether without significance—that German business men are making strenuous .preparations for the days of peace. With a spirit of push and enterprise for which, under the circumstances, they are certainly entitled to credit, they are already making business overtures to both North and South America. In respect to North America, United States business men are being eagerly invited by the American Association of Commerce and Trade at Berlin to visit Germany in view of the ' assured reopening of commercial relations.' In order to do away with the 'distorted impressions' that have been created by the war literature of the day, American visitors, ' business men and intellectuals,' are afforded every opportunity by the Association to meet representative Germans and obtain an ' inside knowledge ' of the actual conditions, in the interests of ' business and a better understanding.' To 'correct false impressions,' an answer is given to the accusation of the New York " Wall Street Journal that the country is being flooded with an unknown volume of paper currency issued by .private banks. ' Since the outbreak of the war and up to July 1, 1915,' says the Weekly Report of the above- Association, ' paper currency aggregating 314 million dollars has been issued. In the meantime, more than one-half of this amount has been withdrawn, so that at the present time 176 million dollars of paper currency is in circulation.' This currency refers to the special notes on the loan banks 'covered by various kinds of collateral' —a conveniently vague phrase, which has a distinctly dubious and unconvincing sound.

In regard to South America, a similar activity is being’shown. America, to which we are indebted for the fore-going-particulars, records, also, that the German manufacturers and exporters have recently established a German Trade .League for South America. At the head of the League is Dr. Bernhard Dernburg, whose misdirected activities some time ago brought about his compulsory retirement from the United States. In his speech at the first meeting of the new association, as we 'learn from our contemporary, he called attention to the great dividends earned by the South American investments, and the valuable orders and contracts they assure. He pointed to the advantages of Germany, but feared that if the war should last very long the recapturing of lost export territory, - would ; not be ' easy:- - A ;solution of the - difficulty would be* A found s ■ in ; South American ipyes£pieijt : ‘South America,. prgeti-

cally without coal or iron ore, will remain tributary to industrial countries indefinitely, and for this reason a more extensive investment of German capital in South America will not only pay, but will also accelerate recapturing eventually lost export territory. Of importance is not only the • strengthening of our economic influence, but also the gaining, of a certain spiritual influence. No doubt, Germany's energy and pluck is remarkable, but Latin and Anglo-Saxon people do not like to be made conscious of this fact, or have it “rubbed in." ’ Which is very nice and considerate of Dr. Dernburg. As a foreign trade territory South America will be of special value to Germany, he added, ‘ because we do not know how relations to our enemies of to-day will shape themselves after the war, and for this reason we must eventually look for compensation. This spirit of looking ahead, and of not only seizing but making opportunities, is one of those things in respect to which it would be quite permissible for the Anglo-Saxon trader to learn from the enemy.

The Pope and Peace

Under this heading, a leading article appeared in Wednesday’s Evening Star, criticising the Pope’s recent peace utterances and his general attitude in regard to the war. The following communication, addressed to the Editor of the Star and posted on Friday appeared in Monday’s issue of the paper; ‘ Sir, —I think you will agree with me that the less we have of squabbling and contention amongst ourselves the better at a juncture like the present, when quotas cannot be made- up and when we are “up against it’’ good and hard on practically every front. At such a crisis we have neither time nor energy to waste upon domestic quarrels,, and I propose, therefore, to make my. comments upon your article on the above subject as brief as the necessities of the case will allow.

‘ In company with some other impatient critics, you upbraid the Pope because he has not, as you say, publicly condemned what you comprehensively call “the sack of Belgium,'’ by which 1 understand you to mean the violation of Belgium’s neutrality and the massacres and other outrages which accompanied it. (1) The sack of Belgium, and the sheeting home of the responsibility therefor, is primarily a question of fact, or, rather, of a series of facts; and those who, like yourself, have suddenly discovered in this time of stress that the Pope is the supreme judge, not only in the sphere -of faith and morals, but also in that of mundane facts, are thrusting upon the Sovereign Pontiff a claim to authority in worldly matters which the Church itself has never put forward, and which, under other circumstances, you would be amongst the first to deny. ' ‘2. The claim that the Pope should be accorded any sort of status or recognition in international affairs .has, in point of fac,t, been formally, officially, and expressly denied by some of the very Powers in whose interests a Papal pronouncement is now desiderated. When the Hague Peace Conferences were inaugurate! in 1899, the Holy Father was flatly refused recognition, on the ground that “international, questions are the sol© affair of the nations concerned,” and the Papal representatives were voted out. Italy led the opposition to their admission ; and two of the Powers which joined with her in slamming the door in the face of his Holiness were Great Britain and France. 3. The Powers I have named have for years studiously abstained from recognising the Pope as a factor in international affaiTs. For years past neither Great Britain nor France has been represented at the Vatican. At a late stage of the present crisis Great Britain bestirred herself and sent Sir Henry Howard, who during his short period of service has done excellent ■work for the Allies. France is still unrepresented. All these considerations are absolutely relevant as showing the general attitude exhibited towards the Papacy as an arbiter in international affairs by those countries in which complaint is now made regarding the Holy Father’s alleged inaction.

4. Coming to the main point of your criticism “Why did not the head of the Homan Catholic Church openly characterise, as only he could do, that unpardonable crime known as the Sack'of Belgium’’? I reply; Any decision regarding a specific act or series, of acts which was not judicial would be worthless, and no judicial decision is possible until both sides to the quarrel have been fairly heard. It may ,be urged that the Report of Lord Bryce’s Commission of Inquiry might be regarded- as affording sufficiently conclusive evidence. I acknowledge that it would be difficult to conceive, within the limits of its scope, any examination of the facts more thorough, more conscientious, or more convincing. Benedict XV. could hardly, any more than - any other fair-minded reader, have risen from a study of its pages with any doubt left as to the reality, the number, and the revolting character of the outrages committed. But the question is not as you seem to think——what the Pope as an individual thinks or knows regarding the matter. However much he may be personally convinced, if he is to act officially and judiciallythat is, in his capacity as Pope— is plain that he cannot base an accusation upon what is, despite its excellence, an ex parte statement, emanating from one side only of the belligerent parties. A Supreme Court judge may be perfectly satisfied in his own mind that the prisoner at the bar is guilty, but unless full evidence to that effect, with ample opportunity to the accused for rebuttal and reply, is formally .and officially before him, he could not and "would not pronounce judgment. For the sake of illustration, let us suppose that the position was reversed, and that—per impoanibil eour troops had been accused of similar excesses, would we not have resented it keenly if the Holy See had proceeded to launch a public denunciation against the honor of our Army, solely on the strength of a Report drawn up by our adversaries?

‘5. Under the circumstances, all that was possible to the Holy Father was a general condemnation of: the violations of the principles of humanity and of international law, and this has been already made. In a Cousistorial Allocution of January 22 he “strongly reprobated all injustice, by whatever side and with whatever motives they have been committed,’’ and expressed his grief that “both. on land and sea methods of offence have been employed that are contrary to the dictates of humanity and international law.’’ In the case of the violation of the neutrality of Belgium—in respect to which evidence was not required, the fact being admitted by all parties— the Holy See has specifically condemned Germany’s action. In a letter sent to M. Van den Heuvel, Belgian Minister at Rome, on July 6, and authorised by the Sovereign Pontiff, the Cardinal Secretary of State states: “That the violation of the neutrality of Belgium carried out by Germany, on the admission of her own Chancellor, contrary to international law, was certainly ‘one of those injustices’ winch the Holy Father, in the Cousistorial Allocution of January 22, ‘ strongly reprobates.’ ” These protests have been accepted by the country most concerned as entirely satisfactory. “The Pope,” said the Belgian Minister to the Holy See, in an interview with the Italian Trihuna, “did protest in his Allocution, and the Belgian Government has already expressed its gratitude for this to his Holiness. Given the character of the Holy See, the Pope’s protest could not go farther.” It is stated that an explanation. was demanded by Germany both of the allusions in the Allocution and of the statement in the official letter to M. Van den Heuvel. These protests, presumably, do not go as far as you would desire ; but seeing that they have pleased Belgium, and displeased Germany, even the Evening Star may fairly be expected to view the situation with reasonable composure.

‘ 6. With regard to theT'peac© question, I entirely, agree with you that anything in the nature of a merely patched-up peace would be an unredeemed calamity, and that the time for a peace settlement is not yet.'. I am also, as you are aware, "at one with you as to the necessary and essential conditions of a satisfactory peace, as laid down in your leading columns with con-

spicuous .„": ability and with untiring . energy If or'] many weeks past. But Ido hot • share , your view that the Pope's peace agitation is either foolish or ' futile. Through the powerful influence.of the members of the Consistory it is calculated to have a distinct effect upon public particularly upon public opinion in Germany— may quite conceivably induce that misguided country to call a halt before it has been actually beaten to its knees. May I point out that from the> expressions used by his Holiness it is clear that he is under no illusion as to the necessity for a "just" and "lasting" peace. The Pope was not born yesterday, and on points like these we antipodean editors cannot teach him anything. Thanking you, in anticipation, for your generous grant of space,-—I am etc., ' Editor N.Z. Tablet. ' December 10.'