The New Zealand TABLET THURSDAY, DECEMBER 22, 1910. IRISHMEN HOLD THE KEY

New Zealand Tablet, 22 December 1910, Page 2107

The New Zealand TABLET THURSDAY, DECEMBER 22, 1910. IRISHMEN HOLD THE KEY

HE Horae elections are now practically concluded, Mr# an d the returns show that the result is almost M an exact duplicate of the January appeal to the V * < electors. A detailed comparison of the figures is interesting as showing, in a remarkt V able way, the almost total absence of change of thought or movement of opinion in the electorates. The two appeals resulted as follows:

The Government majority in January was 124; in December it is 123, with three results to come. For the purposes of this comparison, Nationalists and Laborites have been included in the Government following. » The outstanding feature of the present position. of things is the way in which Irishmen, both in the House of Commons and out of it, hold the key of the political situation. The dominant influence on probable political developments, not only of Home Irishmen, but also of the Irishmen in all parts of the Empire and of the "United States, is now frankly acknowledged by English papers; and Mr. J. L. Garvin (editor of the Observer), who contributes monthly to the Fortnightly Review a clear and accurate 'Review of Events,' gives prominence to the point. Writing in the November Fortnightly, he says: ' There is no possibility of a permanent treaty of arbitration between the British Empire and the American Republic while the Irish question remains on its present footing. To place it on a different footing has become one of the chief needs of our foreign policy. Further, we have to reckon with the sentiment of the self-governing Dominions. In one way or another the existing state of the relations between Great Britain and Ireland makes them all uncomfortable. Their chief statesmen of various political parties in Canada, Australia, and South Africa alike, are full either of Irish sympathies or of Irish blood, or both. They will have nothing to do with any definite scheme of Imperial Union while the working of the Imperial Parliament is obsessed and perverted by the over-representation of an unreconciled race. To the Dominions our dealing with this question in the twentieth century, in spite of the immense changes of the last twenty years in every single aspect of our policy, external and internal, seems to be madness.' * In the House of Commons, as the result of the late election, Mr. Redmond still remains absolutely supreme. Tho elections are practically completed, and the results at the time of writing are as follow : —Liberals, 270; Unionists, 273; Nationalists, 73; Labor, 43 O'Brienites, 9. More than eighteen years ago, just after the elections of 1892, a cartoon appeared in Punch in which was depicted a see-

saw with Gladstone' on one end, Lord Salisbury on the other, and in the centre Parnell, controlling either side at will. With Redmond 'in the place of Parnell, that is precisely the situation indicated by the present position of parties to-day. Even with the whole Labor vote thrown in, the Liberals are entirely dependent on Nationalist support to carry on. The Irish Party have the ball at their feet. They are absolute masters of the situation, and can make or unmake any Government. And, thanks to the rebuffs administered to factionism in the contest, the Nationalist phalanx will be stronger and more united than ever. * There can hardly, we believe, be two opinions as to the course which Mr. Asquith is now likely to pursue. He will —as he is fully entitled to do —accept the twice-registered verdict of the electors and proceed with the policyreform of the Lords and the settlement of the Home Rule question —with which he went to the country. A suggestion has been made in certain influential quarters that a second conference should be held; but however much, on purely theoretic and academic grounds, the proposal may have to commend it, it is likely to remain in the region of pious hopes. The first conference failed absolutely to arrive at any agreement; and it will be difficult to persuade the nation that there is any real ground for supposing that a second would fare any better. Certainly, so far as Home Rule is concerned, no further conference is necessary, so rapid and so marked has been the advance of public sentiment on the question. ' I will go so far as to say,' said Mr. Harold Spender recently in the London Morning Leader, ' that, in my belief, the Conference of eight has not directly discussed the question of Home Rule at all. Let me add that to my certain knowledge, undue importance has been attached to the various utterances of Cabinet Ministers. I have reason to believe that Mr. Birrell, in spite of all appearances to the contrary, was not referring to the Conference at all when he made that very remarkable speech on Imperial Home Rule. He was just thinking aloud the thoughts of a very shrewd and able political brain. It is not, therefore, that Home Rule is being discussed by the Conference; it is that Home Rule has become the greatest cause on which the House of Lords question now turns. . , So far have we travelled in two years. The real formula now is, "He who says Reform of the Lords' says 'Home Rule.'"' Reform of the Lords is absolutely certain; and in view of the state of public opinion—as described by Mr. Spender—it is putting the case for Home Rule very mildly to say—as Mr. Redmond himself some time ago expressed itthat ' the prospects never were brighter.'

January, 1910. December, 1910. Unionists 273 272 Liberals 275 270 Labor ... 40 43 Nationalists ... 71 73 O’Brienitos 11 9 670 667