THE FALLACY OF FIGURES

New Zealand Tablet, Volume XXXII, Issue 15, 14 April 1904, Page 5

THE FALLACY OF FIGURES

The following is the final letter of the series :—: — Sir,— A final word on the disputants in your columns who took the statistics of illegitimate births in various countries as ' tests of Protestantism versus Romanism.' 111. In his ' Comparative Moral Statistics ' fed. 1881, p. 144) Morselli long ago pointed out the absurdity of the third principal fallacy into which the overeager controversialists in your columns fell : namely, assuming that (1) the term ' illegitimate birth ' means the same thing in every country— in other words, iluit the returns under this head are collected on the same basis everywhere ; and (2) that they are accurate and com/plete. Here are some examples of what Morselli calls 'the different and irregular information ' which this class of statistics conveys :— 1. In Italy, and ■nowhere else, all exposed children are entered as illegitimate. In Great Britain no such statistics are collected. 2. In Great Britain and Ireland all children born out of lawful wedlock are deemed at law illegitimate, and remain so for ever. In Scotland illegitimates are legitimated by the subsequent marriage of their parents. The same may, with certain easy formalities, be do' in New Zealand. In New York State, all children are

entered as legitimate if their parents— even though they have never gone through a form of marriage— speak of each other as husband and wife. 3. Under certain miscalled ' Catholic ' Governments in Europe, vast numbers of children are set down as illegitimate although born, in true and hply wedlock. Of this, more anon. And now for Some Statistics. The figures of the illegitimate births given hereunder are (unless where otherwise stated) taken from % The New Zealand Official Year Boole ' for 1902, p. 340. The religious statistics are (with the excerption of the 1 Statesman's ' percentage of Protestants in Denmark) copied or compiled from ' Whitaker's Almanac ' for 1904 — Austria (23,787,000 Catholics, 1,832,000 non-Cath-olics), 14.55 per cent, of illegitimate to total births. Bavaria (4,357,133 Catholics, 1,804,134 non-Catholics),' 14.00 per cent, illegitimate births. Saxony (population in 1900, 4,199,758, of whom only 140,255 were Catholics), 12.90 per cent, illegitimate births. Sweden (poipulation in 1902, 5,198,752, nearly all of whom are Protestants), 10.80 per cent. Denmark (population in 1901, 2,449,540, of whom 98.5 in every 100 are Protestants), 10 per cent, illegitimate births, according to the ' Statesman's Year-Book ' for 1901. The German States (Protestants 62.5 per cent., Catholics 36.1 per cent, of population), 9.21 per cent, illegitimate births. Hungary (11,7,74,000 Catholic?, 7,397,000 non-Catholics), 901 per cent, illegitimate births. Belgium, 8.51 per cent, illegitimate births. France, 8.26 per cent. Scotland (1897), 7.0 per cent., varying (for the counties) fioni 3.5 per cent, in Dumbartonshire to 14.1 in Wigtownshire. Italy, 6.34 per cent. England and Wales (1899), 4 per cent.— minimum (far the counties), 2.8 per cent, in Essex ; maximum, 6.6 per cent, in Herefordshire. Ireland (74.21 per cent. Catholics, 25.79 per cent non-Catholics, in 1901), 2.6 per cent, illegitimate births, ' the rate varying from 0.7 in Connaught to 3.6 in Ulster.' A table published by Lefnngwell (' Illegitimacy,' p. 153) shows that in Mayo, the most Catholic county in Ireland, the rate is 0 5 per cent., or only one birth m 200 illegitimate. No religious cetosus is taken in i')n,gland, Scotland, France, and Italy. Same writers in your columns have whooped a great deal about the apparently high rate of illegitimacy that prevails in Austria and Bavaria. The explanation is very simple. It is contained in an article by a Protestant writer (' A Layman's View on Confession ') in the ' Ohurch and the World" (1867). It is summarised as follows by Yotmg in the 1895 edition of his book, p. 508, and he and others whom I have read witness to the existence of the same causes at the present time, though in a somewhat mitigated form m Bavaria : ' Legal marriage is practically forbidden to gicat numbers in German Austria and Bavaria Pso person in Austria can marry if he does not know how to read, write, and cipher. In both Austria and Bavaria a man must show that he possesses a sum of money quite out of the reach of a great many before he can get a license to marry. Of course they marry all the same, secretly, but, as they can show no lapn.se, all their children go down on the State records as illegitimate.' One phase of the war against religion in France and Italy is this that the anti-Catholic Governments of those two countries refuse to recognise any marriage unless celebrated be/ore a registrar. In Italy especially fervent Catholics resent, this, and know that marriages entered into before their pastors do not require the sanction of any Government for their validity. Statistics published by Minister Taiani in 1879 showed that from 1866 to that date about 1 * 400,000 had been celebrated * in Italy in the church alone. And in 1892 there were 3818 of those marriages in the district of Bologna alone. AH the issue of these true arid sacred unions appeared on the lecords of the country as illegitimate ! I will not a\ aste powder and shot upon the tricky comparisons made in your columns between the best cities and districts in one country and the worst in another I think that I have sufficiently proved that the statistics of illegitimate births form no adequate criterion of the comparative moral delinquency of peoples living in different countries and untier different conditions The case is different with ' the inhabitants of the- same country, living precisely under the same civilising environments ' (Lefnngwell, ' Illegitimacy,' p. 21. cf pp. 53,85). Where pre-natal murder, infanticide, artificial sterility, polyandry, aird marital infidelity are notably absent, or comparatively negligeable quantities, the rate of illegitimacy may, as Leffingwell opines, fairly express the moral sentiment of a people. In these respects Ireland forms, perhaps, a better ground

for stach a comparison than any country in the world. I have never seen any explanation other tdian that of the influence of religious beliefs which satisfactorily accounts for the enormous difference that exists, province by, province and county by county, in respect to Jlegitimiate births, between Catholics and non-Catholics in Ireland. Accept my grateful tjhanks for the generous space which you have accorded to me for the discussion of this subject.— Yours, etc., Editor ' N.Z. Tablet.' April 7. Some further observations on this subject will be found among the • Current Topics ' in this issue.— Ed. 1 N.Z.TV)