The New Zealand Tablet Fiat Justitia. FRIDAY, JANUARY 14, 1898. THE ORIENTAL OUTLOOK.

New Zealand Tablet, Volume XXV, Issue 37, 14 January 1898, Page 17

The New Zealand Tablet Fiat Justitia. FRIDAY, JANUARY 14, 1898. THE ORIENTAL OUTLOOK.

§HE world's first question in the Now Year is as to what is likely to happen in the East. Not the East to which eyes have turned in faith and devotion since the uprearing of the Holy Cross, but the F.asL which represents Paganism f in weighty and obdurate and almost hopeless magnitude — the East of the "No Savce " in * all that pertains to civilisation and culture, and is credibly supposed to be even indifferent to the common decencies of life as these arc understood according to Western ideas. China, the despair of the philantluopist, the puzzle of the missionary, has now also become the vexation of the diplomatist, and according to the popular notion her soil stands a chance of being the battlefield of armies. It will be conceded that this apprehension is not altogether founded in fancy. Recent events look serious, not to say menacing. To refer only to the later complications, we find Germany sending thither her warships and landing an armed force to occupy Kiao-Chau, situated in the Shantung Peninsula, on the Yellow Sea. Immediately afterwards comes the news that Russia has taken possession of Port Arthur, some 250 miles farther north, in the enclosed waters of Korea Bay. A fortnight- later the Prussian occupation of Kinchau-fu, a town of Manchuria, is reported. This is followed by the seizure, on behalf of the French, of Hainan, a large island in the extreme south, separated by the Gulf of Tonkin g from the Annain coast. These moves were made with more or less secrecy, and they partook of the character of a surprise, thus begetting the idea that the movers were in a hurry to secure a foothold before their acts could be challenged. The manner in which the several seizures were effected was certainly calculated to give rise to the suspicion that grave business was on hand, and the rumour that Austria is also on the alert, that the United States are looking on with anxious eyes, and that Japan is increasing her navy with marvellous rapidity, coupled with the more certain information as to the reinforcement of the British squadron

in those seas — all these things tend to make the world fidgetty. Yet, on the information to hand, there is reason to hope that the threatened war may be averted. The sheetanchor of this hojie is the seeming lack of concert in the designs of the Great Powers who ate making this demonstration. Only one of them seems to have a settled plan to work out.' We refer to Russia, who is now finishing her Siberian railway, and in order to the completion of her schemes, she urgently desires an outlet in Eastern waters — some port that will bo accessible during the portions of the year when Vladivostok is sealed up in ice. The holding of Vladivostock gives Russia practically the command of Maritime Manchuria, and somehow or other, it does not strike one as strange thafc she should seek to make full use of her advantage by taking the other Manchurian town and port inside the Korean Peninsula. What is not so clear, nor from what we know so justifiable, is the position taken up by Germany. Ostensibly she sent her ships and men to Kiau-chau in order to protect her missionaries. This reason may or may not be genuine. The question that puzzles everyone is whether there is any understanding between Germany and Russia in regard to their "action. Possibly enough there is no more actual concert between them than that which links together temporarily in common cause two parties of brigands who come across one another in their foray. The situation would be seriously disturbing if it were shown that Germany and Russia were playing one game ; but there is no proof that such is the case, and if, on the other hand, it should turn out that they are "going alone,"— well, Russia's moves may be a matter of concern, but the Kaiser's force need hardly be regarded with apprehension. Germany's fighting agent is her army, and inasmuch as she cannot transport it to China, her capacity singlehanded for mischief is limited. Another consideration of a comforting nature to those who pray for peace is that there cannot possibly be any alliance of forces between Germany and France. Race hatred intervenes, and unless Germany should offer to France such a bribe as the restoration of Alsace and Lorraine, the old feud will not be patched up. France and Russia may perhaps have a friendly understanding on the subject, but there is no evidence that such ian understanding exists. This, then, is the groundwork of the hope that there will be no war over China. The Great Powers mentioned appear so far to be acting separately, and unless two or more of them come together there is no danger of a breach of the peace, since no Power is likely to assume the offensive by itself in a part of the world so far removed from the base of supplies. The policeman of the j district is Japan, hhc has vanquished China, and is not likely to sit down with folded arms while other nations 1 divide the spoil. She would be an ugly foe for either France or Germany in those waters, and the policy of the only Powers that could tackle her single-handed, namely, Great Britain and Russia, is not war but peace. Britain is' anxious to open up trade ; Russia desires to get as peaceably as possible an outlet for her business connection. In spite, (.hen, of an<>ry words and ominous war clouds, there is room to hope that the world's peace will not be disturbed. Another consoling reflection so far as the colonies ;ire concerned is that this Europc-in demonstration in the East may gi\ c Japan occupation and divert her attention from the Austrahas. Holding the master hand in her own latitudes, she would naturally look about for places whereon to place' her surplus population, and, with peace assured, the hope of trade might cause a descent on our shores. Now that the navies of the world are represented by formidable squadrons close by her own coasts, Japan is not so likely to look abroad. For this relief much thanks. We have all proper respect for the Japanese, but prefer that they should not over-run our inheritance.