THE NEXT POPE.

New Zealand Tablet, Volume XX, Issue 22, 18 March 1892, Page 23

THE NEXT POPE.

(Correspondence of the New York Sun.') THE Powers, the Holy See, the Catholics, and public opinion in Europe are all occupied with the question of the successor of Leo XIII. Never before, perhaps, has the Conclave had so much interest for politicians and men of intellect. This question is, ia the woris of the poet, " Mise au centre de tout, comme uo echo sonore." The intereste of general politics, the future of the difficulty between the Vatican and the Italian State, the future form of the central Government, the relations between the Pope and the German Catholic cabinets, the destinies of I aly and the development of the Papacy, are all so many problems turning upon the future choice of the Roman Catholic Cardinals, as upon the pivot of moral aud human affairs. The accredited ambassadors bjth to the Holy See and the Quirinal are makiDg investigations and preparing their poiutinps. The Triple Alliance has concerted its plan. Russia has gathered all poesib c iuf irmation ou the subject ? France has ana ional interest in it ; P> rtugal, Spain and England openly profess their preferences and sympathies. At the Va'ican and in the Cithohc world it ia the dominant question. At the present time the diffdient groups are engaged in their calculations. Newspapers and books have dealt with the question, and we see everywhere political pressure, diplomatic movements and compaigns. But this delicate subject has noc yet been treated wiih competence and wholeness. Its very complexity arrests, so to speak, the commentators. One must have a knowledge based on cons aat study of tbe elemaniß which constitute the problem, to be able to follow

with interest and benefit the unfolding and the secret action of all the factors that will influence the choice of the Conclave. Moreover, these contradictory interests and political passions obscure the true evidence. It is true attempts have been made to Bet forth the nature of the problem. One of the first came from M. de Cesare, a liberal Italian writer who has made a specialty of ecclesiastical affaire, a sort of journalistsc Paolo Sarpi, In 1886 he wrote a heavy volume on the last and tbe next Conclave, just at the moment when the Government of Italy, unable to bend the inflexible political conscience of tbe Pope in the matter of conciliation, brok with Leo XIII and began to concentrate all its anxious hope upon the chosen one of the next Con* clave. . But, after all, this work is only a chronicle of more or less good taste. It ia a mixture of vague hopes, fantastic conjectures and poor portraits of the Cardinals considered papabili, the whole enhanced by a dissertation on the liberty of the Conclave, which, in his opinion, proves the liberty of the Pope. On the Ist of October, 1891, the same anti-clerical anecdotist published in the Nuova Antologia, a sort of Italian Revue det Drur Mondes, minus the ability and classic elegance, an article on the next Conclave. This article is of high importance ; it is a manifesto. The Italian in this way tries to enlighten tbe public on this important subject, and to present the judgment of political minds. Its programme consists in the affirmation that it is Austria, a Catholic power in tbe Triple Alliance, which must in the name of the latter play the role of the Holy Ghost and the Grand Elector in the future elective assembly in the Sacred College. The Pope preferred by the Italian Government would be a good old man, gentle and pious, somewhat timid, not too brilliant, who would do the Italian Ministers the favour of disappearing from the scene and making the solitude of the Vatican into a Trappist monastery, cloistered and shut against all tbe storms and aspirations of the century. The lofty statue of Leo XIII,, his modern spirit, his great diplomatic intellectuality, bis intervention in favour of democracy and of republics, his active, incessant and enlightened participation in the problems and preoccupations of the present hour ; all this work of social recom posit ion and moral orientation on the part of the Church, vexes and exasperates the hostile and frondeur Italian Government far more than any claims in favour of the temporal power, the restoration of which no superior and intuitive mind dreams of now in Rome, either in the Vatican or anywhere else. The future will create a new sovereignty, and a Pope adapted to the needs and conditions of the contemporary world. The manifesto of M. Ie Cesare has been widely commented upon, because it gives undeniable proof that official Italy and the Triple Alliance will put everything ia motion to prepare and dominate the coming Conclave. All who are familiar with Leo XIII. share this conviction, which has become a sort of religion among the company of his friends. They love to speak of tbe advanced age of his relatives, the almost indestructible constitution of the Peccis, which astonishes the whole country by its freshness and longevity. Living with the monastic sobriety of the earlier days, his b^dy has the immateriality and the diaphanousness of a flower. He is transparent, like a soul covered with a thin veil. Those who have approached him in one of his happy momentß, when his mind is full of energy and elasticity, have been amazed at his power, his facility of conception, and his extraordinary memory. Mr Dana, the editor of the Sun, when speaking upon Dante and literature with Leo XIII., had a cbance to admire this intellectual power, for the Pope, carried away by the ethusiasm with which the Florentine inspired him, recited with splendid effect some of the most beautiful passages in the divine comedy. It was probably the first time since the days of St Peter that a Pope dieplayed so much emotion before an American journalist. The place for holdi ig the next Conclave is the first question. Where will it be 7 Will it bn iv Rome? Will it be abroad ? The tradition is in favour of Rome, but the Piedmontese invasion of the city has modified the situaMon. Immediately after the occupation, Pius IX. drew up a bull indicating the new conditions of the future Conclave. This buil, amplified in # 1876, and later on in January, 1878, immediately after the death of Victor Emmanuel, declares that the rule of exclusion of States is suppressed, and leaves to the majority of the Cardinals present at Rome the choice of the meeting place of the Conclave. It is entirely new legislation that L-o XIII. is perfecting, we are told, at the present time. Later on 1 will come back to ihe attitude of the present Pope. It is, therefore, the dawn of a new epoch in ihe history of the Church and the Papacy. In 1878, when Pius IX was reposing in St Peter's, tne great majority of the Sacred College of Rome, that is to say, the Cardinals of the Curia, had at first aa idea of cirrying the Conclave abroad, but Lao X 1.11., then Cardinal and Camerlengo, that is to cay Charg6 de l'lnterieun made a splendid speech, in whicD he showed clearly that the situation was not so exceptional as to warrant such an important decision, and that tbe powers and public opinion would not unde r ßtand the motive of such a preceding. His argument was decisive and won the victory. It is said in the ecclesiastical world of Rome that to that powerful and highly politic address Leo XIII. ow.'S the possession of the tiara, But from 1878 to 1891 history has advanced ; the

■itnation has changed under the action of several extraordinary and powerful agents. la the past ten years the question of the Papacy has made great progress, and the problem of the conclave is naturally linked with it. In the first place, the Pontifical cause has taken on another aspect. From our initial sn pin en ess we have reached a paroxysm of contention. Immediately after Leo XIII. mounted the thione he made the Pontifical question the centre of his operations, the ideal of his Ap stolicil labours. Pamphlets uj,oa the subject greeted the new Pon lficate as a display of fire-works intended to show its dominant aim and supreme inspiration. From 1880 to 1886 L-30 XIII. thought that a reconciliation with the King was possible upon the basis of a bilateral understanding. Comprehensive genius and ardent patriot as he is, be hoped that the Italians would understand immediately the benefits of peace with the Holy See, and that it wonld suffice for him to advance until the contract of conciliatory ideas would force the Government to sign a treaty of alliacce. While in the heart of Italy be was seeking to create a patriotic movement, he was drawing a line round the Quirinal in making, or endeavouring to make, peace with the sovereigns and the Powers. Bnt, alas ! this generous idea was illusive. Overawed, especially atter the articles of the P»st and the double game of Bismarck, official Italy defended herself by the Triple Alliance, because she did not believe in eincer* peace, and hoped by force to compel the Vatioan to submit or to resign. It was on the arrival of Crispi in power that this disagreement, before latent, became inflamed. When truces end in diplomatic checks, the war passion flames with more intensity. Crispi embittered the battle, and Leo XIII. increased his resistance and multiplied his demands. This duel brings us down to the events of October 2, which had this signification for the Vatican, that the Quirinal, rather than yield, was ready to go to any extreme. It is a combat to the death. Henceforth the question resolves itself in this : Which will drive the other out of Borne, the King or the Pope ? Those who follow the development of the drama are aware that this is the point at stake in the struggle. Now this new situation reacts fatally on the theory of the Conclave, and Leo XIII. thoroughly understands the modification of the qnestion. He has declared to aH his friends that the Italian revolution was treating him as a hostage, and that the Btruggle in Borne might finish, like the Commune in Paris, by the massacre of hostages. Hence the necessity of new measures. The intention of preparing the exile of the Holy See is attributed to Leo XIII. and Cardinal Bampolla, as well as more severe legislation io regard to the Conclave, so that the Sacred College may have laid npon it the duty of taking it away from Borne. The reason of the Vatican are easy to understand. In the painful crisis through which Borne is passing, would the Conclave be free in the Eternal City 1 Would the Italian Government respect tbe choice of a new Pops who might not be agreeable to the Quirinal j Would diplomacy support the views of the Government? Would not the populace of Borne, excited by agitators, be inehned to rush upon the Vatican and dictate its despotic will? Certainly it is said that tbe Conclave of 1878 took place in perfect tranquility ; but has not that situation caanged ? While the Quirinal holds the Vatican so near at hand, would it without intervention permit the development of an episode so important as tbe election of a new Pope ? Besides these inspired political essays we have some literary attempts. Take, for instance, the work of M. Berthelet, L'Elezione del Papa, written in concert with the Italian Government. It is a collection of documents taken out of old and dußty libraries, intended to furnish the anti- Pontifical journals with arguments against the Pope, to revolutionise public opinion, and to familiarise it with the idea of making the next Pope. I will cot dwell now upon 'his piece of tactics on the part of official Italy, having to come back to it at a later period. In January, 1891, the organs of Crispi opened the campaign, showing that the part of diplomacy for Italy and tb*3 Triple Alliance must consist henceforth in preparing the election of the successor to Leo XIII. Among Catholic journals only one, tbe Moniteur de Rome, had the courage to discuss this eventuality, and that for reasons of delicacy easy to be understood. Thiß journal, whose mißsion has often been to sound public opinion and to bring out ideas of presentiment, unmasked during the past Bnmmer the tacticsof the Government ; but the pressure of the Triple Alliance finally brought it back to silence. A great number of persons were interested in keeping the debate from growing into contradictory polemics. Nevertheless, the shot hit the mark. The anger of the officials proved that the Government was concentrating all its diplomatic energy npon this point ; to elect the next Pops. This literature on the subject of the Conclave has not the merit of impartiality and serenity. It cimsis s in timii attempts or prejudiced manoeavres. Up to the present time we find in it no objective point, no clear exposition, no accurate photograph of the question ; and this is the work wbicn I would like to undertake. No doubt it mpossible in a few brief articles to give a resume of the entire situation, or to trace even an imperfect sketch of the tableau of facts

contained in what I will call the question of the Conclave. Bat for all that, it will be useful to follow the discussion somewhat closely and to indicate to the intelligent public the elements that compote the entirety of the problem. The work is not easy. It is necessary to point ou^ the respective positions, the part of the Italian Government, the connivance of the Triple Alliance, the attitude of the Powers less interested, perhaps, whose interest, however, is aroused ; the current of ideas in the Catholic world, the Bentimant of the Sacred College, and the conduct and preoccupations of the Pontifical Chancellery. It will, be npcesaary, also, t-j point to the probable candidates, to show the ibfluence of the Roman question on the Conclave, and the transformations, moral and political, of the Roman hierarchy ; and, flaally. to discuss the hypothesis of radical and profound changes to be brought about either by the possible election of a foreigo Pope, or by the location of the Conclave abroad. A whole world opens op before us, and it ia no exaggeration to Bay that among all the Continental questions of the moment not one is more interesting or more universally studied, because the international groupiog of the Poweri depends upon it ; and perhaps, also, the political future of Europe in the grave perspective of probable international complications. What shows the importance of this question is that, not being open, it engrosses the whole diplomatic, ecclesiastical, and political world. Leo XIII. is a hard man to bury ; he is an intellectual man. It was once said of Joubert that he was a soul that by chance had met with a body. Leo XIII. belongs to that sort of a family, He is almost purely spirit. He has preserved all through his immense labours the full vigour of his intelligence and of his moral and mental faculties. He is an oak or a pine from the mountains of his native country, where the race has a tenacious fibre. Dr Ceccarelli, his medical attendant, said to me one day : " Leo XIII. will die very late in life. He has no infirmities. Time has bad little influence upon bis netvous body, which is inhabited by an indomitable soul. He will go out like a flame, unless some great misfortune or some great emotion should carry him off i > an instant."

(To be continued.)