World Cattle Numbers in 1958

New Zealand Journal of Agriculture, Volume 99, Issue 4, 15 October 1959, Page 333

World Cattle Numbers in 1958

INDICATIONS of possible effects in the level and direction of world trade in beef were contained in a survey of recent movements in cattle numbers in . many parts of the world in the April issue of the United States Department of Agriculture's "Foreign Crops and Markets". A summary of this information follows.

IN 1959, for the first time in history, the number of cattle in the world is expected to exceed 1,000 million. During 1958 numbers increased steadily, the total (992 million) being 1 per cent (14 million) above the 1957 figures and 8 per cent (77 million) above the 1951-55 average. The prewar figure (1938-39) was approximately 700 million. Numbers were seriously depleted in many countries during the war and the increase over the last ten years has been substantial. The expansion of approximately 14 million in 1958 was made up of a 4.1 million increase in both the U.S.S.R. and North America, 2.2 million in South America, 1.9 million in Europe (mostly Western Europe), 1.8 million in Asia, and 600,000 in Africa. There was a slight decline in Australia. As compared with 1951-55, cattle numbers by 1958 increased by 16.7 million in Asia, 15.5 million in South America, 13.8 million in the U.S.S.R., 13.0 million in Africa, 11.7 million in North America, 4.9 million in Europe, and 1.5 million in Australia and New Zealand.

Decline in Argentina

Many of the countries where there has been a marked increase in cattle numbers are not exporters of livestock products and the most significant development during. 1958, as far as meat exports go, was the continued decline in cattle numbers in the Argentine. Since 1956 these have dropped by 13 per . cent and the Argentine Government has been compelled to adopt stringent measures to reverse the trend. These have included higher, prices to producers and -much higher internal prices for meat to discourage the very high level of local consumption. Notwithstanding this, however, Argentine exports are not expected to recover for several years.

Cattle numbers in two other major exporting countries Australia and Uruguay—have also declined, but in Australia the effects of the drought in 1957 and 1958 have been overcome and they should soon recover. Present killings on a heavy scale may, however, retard recovery.

In Uruguay the meat export industries face a number of difficulties and any immediate improvement in cattle numbers is unlikely.

The other important beef exporting countries New Zealand, Denmark, and Ireland continued to show

steady increases, but in Canada the total has dropped, which in time will bring about a reduction in slaughtering and in exports. Of the major importing countries, in the U.K. cattle numbers increased during 1958 and are expected to do so again in 1959. The annual price review for both years has laid emphasis on the need for an increase in beef production. In 1958 the cattle population of the United States was 96.9 million, 4 per cent above the low point reached in 1957, and by the end of 1959 can oe expected to reach the 100 million mark. Elsewhere in the world no great changes have taken place, though the marked expansion in Central America may lead to this area playing a more important part in world trade. In Western Europe cattle numbers are rising, but this is hardly keeping pace with the increase in population and improvements in standards of living.

Attention has also been focused on developments in Africa, south of the Sahara, where the increases have' been only moderate but where important changes in the structure of the industry are taking place. European farmers there have devoted more attention to commercial production and African owners, too, are becoming, increasingly aware of the importance of producing for the market. With their low domestic per capita consumption and the limited domestic market for better grade beef, several countries in this part of Africa are now seeking export markets. If living standards rise, however, in this. part of the world, this could absorb any potential export surplus. The quantity of beef that enters international trade is only a small part of total world production, but it is well known that relatively small changes in production can have a marked effect on the level and the direction of world trade. During the past year the decline in Argentine exports and the increased demand in the United States have both influenced the market; predictions as to just how long the American demand will last are difficult to make, but it is abundantly clear it will be some years before the Argentine . attains its former level of exports. . ?

Eminent American Bacteriologist at Wallaceville Animal Research Station

ONE of America’s leading veterinary bacteriologists, Professor H. S. Cameron, of the University of California, is working at the Department of Agriculture’s Wallaceville Animal Research Station on a Fulbright Scholarship. Professor Cameron is Professor of Veterinary Science in the School of Veterinary Medicine at Davis, California. Professor Cameron is an authority on the Brucella group of bacteria, members of which cause contagious abortion in cattle, and epididymitis, a form of sterility in rams. Both these diseases are well known in New Zealand and considerable research on them has been done at Wallaceville, particularly in the field of prevention by vaccination. Of some 61 papers on veterinary subjects Professor Cameron has had published, 30 have been on the Brucella group and the diseases they cause. Professor Cameron was born in Scotland, but has been a United States citizen for the last 30 years. He has the degrees of Doctor of Veterinary Medicine, Master of Science, and Doctor of Philosophy, all from Cornell University. He has been associated

with the University of California at Davis since 1936. Professor Cameron will be in New Zealand for about eight months.