NOTES OF THE MONTH.

New Zealand Illustrated Magazine, 1 December 1904, Page 239

NOTES OF THE MONTH.

HE Dogger Bank incident has not led to war between Britain and Russia. When last month's notes were penned the situation was extremely grave. An outrage had been committed upon inoffensive fishermen while plying their calling, and the circumstances of the case pointed to either panic or vodka. But the Russian bureaucracy, instead of frankly disavowing the acts of the officers of the Baltic Fleet and making what reparation the occasion demanded, added insult to injury by declaring that the trawling fleet had been used as cover by torpedo boats belonging to Japan which had been sheltered in England. The public feeling in Great .Britain was dangerously hot at first, and the tone of the Press was more hostile to Russia than it had been at any time since the Crimean War. At the same time the anger, though righteous, was not unreasoning, and there was a unanimous disposition in favour of permitting the Government to act unhampered. Even in Hull, which is the headquarters of the trawling fleet, counsels of calm wisdom prevailed, and it remained for sundry ultra-Im-perial coteries in New Zealand to hold public indignation meetings, and to flood the newspapers with letters of angry denunciation. This, though somewhat comical, was

characteristic, since the movement received its impulse from the Premier, who induced Parliament to pass a resolution in effect assuring the Home Country of the support of New Zealand. The Commonwealth followed, using- milder language, and conveying slightly more attenuated guarantees of help. Fortunately, for several reasons, there seems to be little room to fear that we shall be again called upon to organise military contingents. The crisis was not dissipated in a day, hut a " via media '" was soon discovered. The proposal that the case should be remitted to a court of inquiry, in. conformity with a provision of the Hague Convention, was accepted by Russia, and though it took tijne to adjust the details, the court has now virtually entered upon the task assigned to it, which is to determine who is to bear the blame of the unfortunate " incident.'' No nationality is specified, it being- assumed, for the purpose of soothing 1 the amour propre of Russia, that the whole business is shrouded in mystery. The court consists of two representatives each of Britain and Russia, with a fifth nominated by the Emperor of Austria. At first it was announced that the Baltic Fleet would be detained at Vigo pending" the inquiry, but to this proposition Russia refused absolutely to assent, and as it was only possible to hold back Admiral Roshdestventski by means

ol the big guns of the Channel and Mediterranean Fleets, he was perpermitted to proceed to the Far East, where Admiral Togo anxiously awaits him. It is likely that he will get all that the British public wish him without the expenditure of a drop of British blood or an ounce of British powder.

It is, perhaps, difficult to follow the course of events without experiencing a suspicion of humiliation. Even though we are assured that the magnanimity of Britain is appreciated at Washington, Paris, Vienna and Eome, it is irritating to l:e told by certain Russian journals that " whatever happens, England wont fight," the plain inference being that Russia should not accept any suggestions that we may otter, or take heed of any demands we may make. There is, however, one solid reason why we should be glad that the Imperial Government has, in spite of the sharpest temptation, kept its hands ofl' Russia. To do other than has been done would have been to play directly into the hands of Germany. Germany alone would profit by the embroilment of Britain witli the Tsar. It has been broadly asserted that the commander of the Baltic Fleet had received special warning from somebody at Berlin to beware of Japanese torpedo boats on the Pogger Bank, but whether the accusation is or is not susceptible of proof does not matter much. What it is of consequence to bear in mind is this, that it is Germany's interest (1) to create trouble between Russia and England, and (2) to re-instal the sentiment of distrust that lias kept England and France assunder for so many centuries, and which has, to a great extent, 'been removed by recent intimate political intercourse. The Anglo - French Arbitration Treaty is fraught with consequences to Germany more important and more alarming than any liable to be induced by the agreement be-

tween France and Russia. It would suit the Kaiser's temporary purpose to get Britain into a scrape with anybody, but he would not trouble himself to make mischief between London and Petersburg simply with that object and nothing more. Germany has always felt safe with Russia. They are natural allies. Both are vitally interested in the maintenance of the autocratic principle in government, and heretofore their interests have not clashed to any appreciable extent in Europe, or in the East, or Far East. It is, of course, true that recent developments of the Kaiser's world-policy threaten to antagonise Russia. The friendship between Germany and the Porte and the railway and settlement schemes in Asia Minor, cannot l;e acceptable to Russia, which regards all Asia as coming within the sphere of her ultimate influence. But then we can never be sure of Germany's aim. Every particular manifestation of her acknowledged scheme of national expansion may be made, for all we can prove to the contrary, with the express sanction of the Tsar. All that Germany has done, or tried to do, in the extreme East of Europe, or in the Asiatic provinces of the Sultan, equally with her efforts in the Yellow Sea might conceivably form part of a combined plan by means of which Russia would be enabled to realise all Peter the Great's dreams of Asiatic domination, and Germany would materialise her ambitious projects in Africa, South America, and the Western Pacific. The Common Enemy, of course, is Britain. But Britain is not so essentially the enemy of Russia as she is of Germany. For Germany can do nothing of any consequence so long as we hold the dominion of the Ocean. If we assume that the Kaiser is trying to force the pace with Russia, we have the key to much that is otherwise inexplicable. The cautious policy of Britain, and the changing sentiment in France must, however, have

shown the Tsar that Germany has been setting her snare in the sight of the birds she wanted to trap, and .Russia may see, what many accomplished publicists in England have long recognised, that there is room for a Russian- British rapprochement upon mutually beneficial terms. The destinies of the Far East are in the hands of no one Power. Whatever the result of the present war it is not likely that Russian influence will be totally eliminated from Manchuria. Nor, in spite of evil prognostications, mostly made in Germany, is there any likelihood that the Chinese Empire will fall, under the political tutelage of the Mikado of Japan. The large interests that will, therefore, be left open must be regulated and safeguarded by the three Powers who are most profoundly concerned in the maintenance of peace in the Pacific, Japan, America and Britain. There does not seem to be any room for Germany there unless she forces herself in, and without the direct countenance of Russia it is difficult to know what sort of excuse she could manufacture. Her best argument would be a powerful fleet, and to the creation of this the Kaiser has been de-voting his best energies for many years. A navy that, combined with that of Russia, and possibly France, would equal the seapower of any other two nations including England has been regarded, up to the present, as something worth striving for, and the Kaiser has succeeded in winning some of the most implacable enemies of Caesarism in Germany to his way of thinking. But the Anglo-French agreement has naturally upset these- calculations. Furthermore, evidences are not wanting of a weakening of the Triple Alliance. Italy's incentive to union with the Teutonic Powers was distrust of France, and the ground for that distrust has "been largely cut away ! by the French treatment of the Ultramontane pretensions as well as by the fact of

Vol. XT.— No. 3.— 10.

the Anglo- French agreement. England is the traditional friend of Italian liberty and unity, and England's friends are Italy's. In concluding these necessarily brief and imperfect notes on German policy it has to be mentioned that almost at the moment of going to press, a cable message brings the news that a Russian war loan is to be subscribed in Germany, but upon the condition that Russia offers no opposition to the completion of the Baghdad railway by German capitalists. This may or may not be reconcileable with what has been written above. It is necessary, in this connection, to remember that at Germany's invitation Mr. Balfour's Government had almost committed itself to an active political and financial partnership in this work, and was only saved from taking the last fatal step by the violent opposition of the British people, who in this instance, as well as in the memorable Venezuelan case, have made it clear that they will have nothing to do with Germany.

The war has made little or no apparent progress. Port Arthur is proving a second Sebastopol, and readeis of Tolstoy's intensely painful and realistic account will see in the story of the seige a repetition of the horrors of the Crimean fortress. The present aspect of Port Arthur is that of a ruined shambles. Deprived of nearly everything that makes life endurable, including hope, the garrison still retains that dogged courage which is characteristic of the race, in peace no less than in war. According to all the rules of the game the place should have fallen months ago, but now, after more than three-quarters of a year have elapsed, the date of the final act in the bloody drama is still uncertain. The main armies, facing each other in the vicinity 01 Mukden, have been inactive for some time, pausing like two wrestlers to negotiate for a better grip,

or, rather, like two chess-players, deeply studying every possible move. Both are strongly entrenched, and reinforcements are moving up from East and West. The battle when it comes will probably be decisive of the issue of the campaign. It will not close the war, that is certain. For both belligerents have gone too far to recede, and Russia has a great deal more at stake than Manchuria. But the Tsar, while determined to fight to a finish, is aware of the unpopularity of the war amongst the Russian people. The symptoms of national discontent, assuming in many places the proportions of open revolt, are too plain to 'be misunderstood. The Tsar has accepted the true import of the outburst. The necessity of the Government is the opportunity of the friends of liberty. Against the advice of his mother (who, daughter of Denmark as she is, and sister of our Queen, is yet first amongst the reactionaries), of Admiral Alexeioff, the genius who muddled the Manchurian affair, and of M. Pobiedonostzeff, Procurator of the Holy Synod, Jew-baiter and author of the tyrannical methods employed in Finland, the Emperor has permitted delegates from the Zemstvos, or rural and municipal councils, to meet in congress and to formulate their recommendations. It was a bold course to take, and lovers of freedom in every part of the world must hope that the grandson of the Tsar who freed the serfe will 'be courageous enough to grant his people constitutional liberty. The suggestions — they might indeed be termed the demands— of the Congress read like the famous document of the Chartists. They embrace a constitution, guarantees of

freedom of speech and conscience and a free press, the right of public meeting, enfranchisement of the people with the riyht of legislating, primary education for the masses, and one or two other minor privileges. So much comes to us by cable, with the further intelligence

that the Tsar has consented to receive a deputation from the Congress. The mere enumeration of the things asked for will sufficiently discover the nature of the tyranny under which the Russian people are ground down. They want nothing that the people of the British Empire and America have not possessed for more than two centuries, or what Frenchmen have not enjoyed for the greater part of a century. Their minds cannot conceive any privileges beyond those that we hold, though with tjhem, as with us, there is a minority who will never be satisfied with any reform that falls short of the qualities of the Millenium. Theoretically the Tsar has the power to grant what the Zemstvos ask for. In practice it will 'be found that the decision rests with the evil geniuses that surround the Throne, including the persons named above, the host of Grand Dukes, and the leading members of the aristocracy. Such a combination has made and unmade rulers in the past, and may be trusted to act as it always has acted under certain given conditions. There has always been an unpleasant suspicion that the liberalising tendencies of the last two Alexanders was responsible for the manner of their death, the one by bomb and the other by poison.

The American Presidential Election resulted, as most people inside and outside the Republic expected, in the return of Mr. Roosevelt by an overwhelming majority of more than two to one. The majority would have been much greater but for the sentiment of loyalty that clings to the Democratic Party, whose great traditions belong to the time before the Civil War, and are surely fading. It is abundantly evident that the American people have determined to maintain the position of the States as a world power and an enrolled member of the civilised Concert. There will be

no further serious discussion of the Democratic proposal that America should withdraw from the Philippines;, and her share in the solution of the grave problems in the Far East will be taken frankly and ungrudgingly. At the same time the interpretation of the Munroe Doctrine will be increased in rigidity, and the disposition of a certain Court to obtain a footing in South America will be frowned down even more effectively.

Though the Chinese must by this time have fairly got to work in the mines of the Rand, we have not heard that the sky has fallen on the Transvaal. A great deal of mischievous nonsense has been written upon this subject, not as affecting the abstract principle of employing yellow in preference to white labour, but about the alleged menace to civilisation involved in the Chinese immigration. The circumstances of the case are less favourable to the Chinese in ■ South Africa than they were in California at any time, and Mr. H. H. Bancroft, the historian of the West, and an acknowledged authority upon Californian affairs, has shown conclusively that the apprehensions of the white population of that State, from the earliest days of the mining boom until now, have never been justified in the slightest degree by the facts. The very qualities that were imputed to the Chinese as faults are those which should have entitled them to'benevolent toleration. They do not assimilate with the Europeans, do not ask for the franchise, and desire only to make so much money as will enable them to return to their native land with a competency that we would think exceedingly modest. In return they give labour worth to the community that employs them many times the value of the remuneration paid. The unionist labourer in Africa is not likely to be trained to appreciate the Chinaman, but the presence of the latter

will not, we may safely conclude, provoke a rebellion.

The fiscal reform propaganda makes little or no appreciable progress in Great Britain. Mr. Chamberlain, apparently, has abated none of his zeal and energy in the cause, and he is seconded by many distinguished men, while he lias the thinly-veiled support of Mr. Balfour and his Ministerial colleagues. But the opposing party-cry of " no increase in the price of the people's food," has produced the effect it was intended to have, and the sympathy of the working-classes has been largely diverted to the side of men who are not quite worthy of it. It cannot be to the ultimate advantage of any section of tlie British people, even supposing that some temporary benefit might be obtained, to transfer the helm of state to the hands of the Little Englanders. Our foreign policy is weak and vacillating enough in the care of the Marquis of Lansdowne, but what it would become under the guardian-angelship of Sir Henry Campbell-Bannerman we might well tremble to think. The alternative presented by the selection of Lord Roselery for the post is not more encouraging, because in that case there would be the grave possibility of a breach with France. The attitude of the Commonwealth towards Mr. Chamberlain's scheme is somewhat curious. The Federal Government, which is, as we know, the creature of compromise, is virtually pledged to let the tariff dog lie, but the Labour Party, or at least some considerable part of it, including the leader, ex-Premier Watson, favours the principle of Preference. Labour in Australia has nearly always been Protectionist, but the problem of an Imperial tariff has never before been put before the Party in set terms. It will be interesting to watch the contest between the British Kadicals and their counterparts on this side of the

world. It is not outside the bounds of probability that Mr. Watson's views will lead to the conversion of some of the English Labourites. But there is a great deal of ground yet to cover before it will be practicable to do so much as to lay the question before the Empire as a whole. The next general election, at Home, which is not far off and may be much nearer than we think, will settle some of the preliminaries, and clear away some misapprehensions, but a great deal will remain to be done after that.

The session of the "New Zealand Parliament would have ended without any particular notice early in the month, had it not been for the passage of the amazing Shops and Offices Bill. This measure, which does not appear to have been asked for by anybody in particular, since nobody comes forward to defend it, makes a direct attack upon our most elementary conceptions of justice. According to its terms all shops in which more than one person are employed are to be closed at six o'clock on all days exceot Saturday and that on which the half-holiday falls. The sole exceptions are restaurants and similar places of refreshment. Fruit and confectioner shops, which have always been exempted heretofore, are included, together with a number of other small businesses, such as tobacconists', that depend for their support mainly upon the evening trade. Tea - rooms and barber's shops may keen open provided they are not connected with retail places of business ; if they are so connected they must close. The law T , which is draconic in its character, would, if put into operation, affect a lar2,e class of deserving people most injuriously. As it is, the mere

prospect of the Act in operation has produced much consternation and some needless suffering. More than one small tradesman, in order to make himself safe, has dispensed with all assistance, and in this way a number (if persons have been thrown out of employment. This is an ironical commentary upon a law allegedly conceived in the interests of " Labour." Naturally enough, when the people grasped the significance of the new measure there was an outcry from all parts of the (Vlcny, and some of the Members of Parliament deemed responsible have had a somewhat trying experier.ee. But the truth is that no particular section of the House is to blame except the Government, who, despite repeated declarations of en intention to pause, still pursues the fatuous course of pandering to the labourites, who are never satisfied and ne v er grateful. The emphatic protests arising in all quarters had the effect of " hanging up " the Act for a time, until the Government takes steps to test its "legality." The position is odd, almost ludicrous, but the feeling that the failure of the Act in a court of law would amount to a benefaction keens the miblic from laughing. The I a l- orr Department arranged fcr a test c.»se, pnd this was heard before lh: Me.Arthur, the Wellington Stipendiary Magistrate, who decided that owing- to the obscurity of the clause relating to " combined district?," by which term each of the four chief centres is described, the rroseeution must fail. The Department has annealed, and meantime the " combined districts " will be duly gazetted. Pending the result the trn.de of the Colony will go on rs before, and most peoole will hore that the result will be found not to interfere with existing arrangements.