Notes of the Month.

New Zealand Illustrated Magazine, 1 September 1904, Page 470

Notes of the Month.

iSPffffHE most casual student of ®ijk% the newspapers and other H current periodical literature * r must be struck with the *$* number of great questions in process of solution all over the world. There is, of course, nothing new in this alone, but there is something' specially noteworthy in the fact that our interests, as a colony, are closely bound up with many, with most of these great problems. The problems themselves are linked together, and govern one another through an infinite series of influences. To deal with public events of first-class importance as separate and segregated interests, is unphilosophical, though it may be convenient. Civilised society is tending more and more, if not towards unity, at least towards interdependence, and the term " civilised society " is itself growing more and more elastic. Within the present generation the area admittedly governed 'by civilised means has increased very sensibly. Japan has stepped inside it, South America has greatly strengthened its claim for inclusion, while- those portions of our own Empire lying in the Middle and Par East are daily giving additional assurances of their capacity for ultimate admission. With these facts noted, it is not difficult to detect the connection between such questions as Mr. Chamberlain's scheme of Imperial Protection, the War in Manchuria, the political and military policy in India, the new relations between Britain and

France, and the approaching electoral crisis in America. In all of these, and in many others, smaller in degree because of less pressing importance, our interest is sharply denned. It is worth our while, then, to glance around, month after month, and endeavour to sum up the position in all its aspects, and deduce from it such conclusions as we can.

Mr. Chamberlain's campaign is not making brilliant progress. His honesty of purpose is, except from the standpoint of the narrowest political sectarianism, unquestioned, but he does not seem to have gauged the feelings of the British people. His object is to strengthen the Imperial ideal by making the Empire self-dependent, and virtually independent of the rest of the world. Without pausing to discuss the intrinsic merits of his plan, which it would be as unjust to condemn as foolish to applaud without a complete examination of the data, it may be said that the ex-Colonial Secretary has misunderstood his public. The English people are not sufficiently imaginative to be ready to revolutionise their fiscal policy at the bidding of one man, for Mr. Chamberlain is virtually alone. He has not a lieutenant who dominates* either by ability or personal charm. Nor is the leader himself magnetic. The protectionist propaganda is failing, principally because the electorates cannot be persuaded that preference to- Colonial productions;

will atone for the increase in the price of foods, and partly for the reason that the bogy of foreign aggression, which has played no inconsiderable part in Mr. Chamberlain's strategy, is not greatly feared. From Mr. Chamberlain's point of view, the War in the Far East broke out at a most unpropitious moment. His failure, in the face of the results of the bye-elections, seems certain, but whether his illluck will materially affect the Balfour Government it is as yet too early to conjecture with safety. <,_ The Russo-Japanese War is a subject somewhat difficult to handle. Such tremendous issues have been settled in the course of a few brief months, so much happens within a week, that before the ink is dry on the written commentary it requires modification. A bare record of the incidents from day to day is all that is really safe, and this would be robbed of interest unless it were brought up to the last moment before the publication fell into the hands of its readers. In a magazine such a course is not feasible. But some general reflections are admissible. The war reveals with increasing vividness the importance of a thorough and complete plan of action, of uniting in the operations of the administrative and professional branches of the Army, and of celerity of movement. If the Japanese had laid themselves out to avoid all the mistakes we made in South Africa, they could not have given greater evidence of their success in that direction. They seem to have taken lessons from Briton and Boer, assimilating the fighting qualities of 'both, and avoiding all their mistakes except the sinp'le occasional error of rashness. The war, further, lays stress upon the value of sea power. Without the command of the waters of the Yellow Sea the Japanese would have been comparatively helpless, and the wonder is that Russia, knowing the naval strength of

Japan, should have pushed the matters in dispute so far without a serious effort to equalise the chances of a conflict on the sea.

The British expedition to Tibet, which has for its object the settlement of some outstanding disputes, and the protection of Indian frontier interests against possible encroachments, cannot yet be said to have achieved success. Colonel Young-husband is probably the only man in the diplomatic service that could have accomplished so much, though he, apparently, has come short of his expectations. The military force now at his disposal is more than double the strength of what was considered necessary at the outset of the campaign. Tt has to be borne in mind, however, that Lhassa was not the. original objective. It was supposed that a " demonstration " across the frontier would have induced the councillors of the Dalai Lama to make a treaty, and it was believed that the Chinese Government would use its influence to promote a better understanding between Til: et and the Government of the Indian Viceroy. We know that these expectations were vain, and that the political mission of Colonel Young-husband gradually assumed the proportions of an armed invasion of regions heretofore barred to the European. General Macdonald, the military chief of the expedition has skilfully and rapidly reduced all the positions defended by the Tibetans, and the British are now encamped outside the walls of the sacred city. Colonel Younghusband has been inside, but, at the time of writing, he had not succeeded in approaching the Lama even vicariously. The authority in Tibet has simply substituted passive for active resists ance, the Lama has been spirited away, and the invading troops are obliged to make periodical displays of force in order to obtain the necessary supplies of food and fodder. Comparing small things with

great, the situation carries with it a suggestion of the famous campaign of Moscow. But whatever may be the result of the mission— and it can hardly prove disastrous — it has already served to attenuate the fears of a possible Russian invasion of India via the Pamirs. The plans for such an invasion, carefully prepared by Genera] Kuropatkin, are said to be pigeon-holed at the War Office in St. Petersburg, but, in the double light supplied by our latest knowledge of the country and the capacity of our own Gourkas and Pathans, the documents are of no value. It has been argued that by invading Tibet we are needlessly ruffling the feathers of Russia, and treading, however gently, on the toes of China, but over and over again we have been compelled to disregard the scruples of others in the prosecution of the task of consolidating our Indian Empire. What was once called " the great game " in good-natured derision is now a great game in real earnest. It is a game in pursuit of which we have shaped our policy in the Mediterranean and at the Cape, and for which we would be prepared to make sacrifices much greater even than those we have already made. The Tibet affair is not an isolated incident, but a well thought-out move, whose effect has been calculated with scrupulous nicety by skilful and experienced players.

On the western side of the globe the second division of Anglo-Saxon-dom is beginning to feel the travail of its great quadrennial contest. For some reason, that never has been made clear, the party managers in iVmerica (which is now the official name of the Republic) have never attached any particular importance to the selection of candidates for the office of Vice-President. All the national thought is apDarently centred on the larger office, and the subsidiary post has frequently, almost invariably, been filled by men of distinct mediocrity.

The Vice-President plays no part in the official life of the country as such, but in the event of the death or incapacity of the President, he succeeds automatically as the Chief Magistrate. Whenever this has happened, and it has occurred only in a few instances, the incapacity of the Vice-President to shoulder the burdens of the Executive has been apparent. Andrew Johnson and Chester Arthur were wofully below the level of the men whose unfinished work they took up. Mr. Roosevelt seems to be the exception that proves the rule. Nobody expected that he would, if called upon, be likely to break the traditions of the Vice-Presidency, and it was his fortune to succeed one of the ablest statesmen of the century. In the event he has created genuine surprise. He has proved to be the equal of Mr. McKinley both in capacity and vigour. His uncompromising attitude on the trust and labour questions has projected his popularity far over mere party lines, and a month or two ago it seemed safe to assume that his reelection would amount to no more than a formality. The Democratic Party, which now-a-days stands mainly for non-expansion, antiimperialism, and conservative forces generally, seemed to 'be barren of leading men, while those who aspired to lead were discredited by adhesion to outworn political creeds or rendered " impossible " by other considerations. Mr. Bryan possessed no claim upon any section of the Party except the^ silverites, and he did not " command " even those. Mr. Hearst, another self -nominated candidate, represents not only Yellow journalism, which is bad. enough, but also that stratum of humanity to which the gutter press naturally appeals. It was evident that many, if not most Democrats, preferred Mr. Roosevelt to either of the others. Suddenly a new opening was presented by the nomination of Mr. Parker, Chief Justice of New^ York, a man of strong party principle, devoid of fads, and possessing an

absolutely clean record. His bold declaration regarding the currency question, which might conceivably have spoiled his chances of nomination, has in fact strengthened and solidified the Democratic party, between whom and the Republicans the issue is now fairly clear. Ihe coming contest, then, will be stubbornly conducted on both sides, and ihe issue is one to speculate upon. The deep-seated dislike of the American people to interfere actively in the world's politics except in defence of their own recognised interests, is reflected in recent events in the Far East. The impulsive action of the Consul at Shanghai and the Admiral in command of the American squadron in Chinese waters was promptly discredited at Washington, though it seemed to be, at the time, in consonance with Republican ideals. The incident has been interpreted as an indication of official timidity in face of the new conditions that have arisen in connection with the Presidential campaign. The crisis in the Commonwealth of Australia has not been removed ; it has only been modified by the resignation of the Watson Government and the accession of a coalition Government under the virtual leadership of Mr. G. H. Reid. The rise of the Labour Party is one of the consequences of universal suffrage that ought to have been most readily perceived and provided for. The working- classes form the majority in every country, and if, coincident with the establishment of the supremacy of civil arm, the right to vote is made universal, the creation of a Ministry representative of Labour is only a question of time. It is inevitable. The mistake Australians have made is to deepen and widen the already existing breach between Capital and Labour, or rather between those who work with their hands for wages and those who don't. The only rational course to pursue in

respect of currents and forces that may not be stopped, is to regulate them. But in Australia Labour has always been a Red Spectre— an enemy to be fought against to the death and to whom no quarter is to be given. Not unnaturally, Labour has exhibited much of the bitterness of the outcast. What is necessary for it, in order to soften the asperities of its policy and enlarge its sympathies, is responsibility. In this Colony, Labour got the opportunity which Australians of every other class are determined to deny it, and the result has been, on the whole, beneficial. The consequences threatened just at first to be anarchic, but time has not justified the gloomy forebodings of those who regarded the advent of the Ballance Party to power with feelings of actual terror. Experience has taught the protagonists of Labour here that political power is an instrument requiring delicate handling, and that the interdependence of class and class is a fact that cannot be played with. Labour has exercised a powerful influence upon Australian politics for many years, an influence that has rarely been beneficent because it has been exercised mainly in the creation of false issues. Other parties, representing such interests as free trade or protection, have been deflected from a straightforward course by the need of placating Labour, and progress along any defined lines has 'become difficult. With closer organisation Labour has almost reached the point from which it could dominate the other political units, and, sooner or later, it must secure a safe opportunity for developing its platform. Mr. Watson's chance must come. It would have come sooner, he would 'be in the present enjoyment of it, but for the impetuosity of his Party to secure an advantage for Labour which must by this time, appear chimerical to Mr. Seddon. Compulsory preference to Unionists is a doctrine that cannot find permanent acceptance in a democratic country, because it is

illiberal, but even if it were possible and reasonable, the Watson Government might have turned its hand to work of much more pressing 1 necessity. The settlement of the fiscal issue on a firm basis, the consolidation of the State debts, the unification of the railway system, the coordination of the land laws, and many other questions of similar importance are loudly demanding settlement, and it is more than likely that Mr. Watson, in addressing himself to these subjects, would have secured the co-operation, or, at the worst, the benevolent toleration of

many politicians bitterly opposed to him on matters purely Labour in their significance. Mr. Reid's position is no better than Mr. Watson's was. ]t is worse in most senses. Efe is essentially stop-gap in character and purpose. The humorous press years ago, labelled Mr. Reid " YesNo," and the label fits the present Federal Cabinet exactly. It is a combination of the talents of the Free Trade and Protection Parties, whereby each neutralises the virtues

of the other. How long it will last is uncertain. Certainly it will not survive a general election.

In South Africa the situation has not materially changed during- the month. The experiment of employing- Chinese in the mines is to he put into practical operation this month. It will be watched with keen interest. The Boers, while adhering- to their expressed determination to support the new order of affairs created by the war, are manifesting no intention to abandon the privileges which they imagine will flow from the maintenance of their language and national customs. The death of ex-President Kruger, is not an event that carries any special significance, and though the lost leader will be buried with much pomp and circumstance, his last recorded utterances may not be interpreted as an inspiration to the Boers. Almost with his last breath he acknowledged the folly of his action in precipitating" the war, and did justice to the intentions of Britain. As a field for Australian and New Zealand enterprise the Gape does not improve. Returning colonists do not speak in hopeful terms of the near prospects of any industry save mining. A certain measure of time is necessary for recuperation and the extinguishment of the bitterness engendered by the war, and then, no doubt there will be a revival of prosperity in the widest sense of the term.

In our own Colony we are not at the present time making history. Parliament has been sitting- for a little over two months, but the net result of its deliberations is not large. The Legislature might easily be vivified if some of the -questions awaiting settlement were thrown into it. Licensing reform, land tenure, and the status of the Maori are subjects that must infallibly produce heat when they come up for consideration. No one appears to be specially anxious to precipitate matters. Any of the subjects mentioned has in it the seeds of great changes, but none can be called '' burning " questions. The demand of the Maoris for equal -treatment with their fellow-subjects of European descent is ingenious and plausible, and if its expediency were a point established, it might be at once admitted that the claim is just. The ruling disposition is to deal with all three matters in tentative fashion. If possible, the licensing law will be amended solely to the extent of clearing away certain electoral anomalies, the issue as between freehold and leasehold may be referred to a Eoyal Commission, and Maori agitation will be temporarily put down with suave phrases. It is, meantime, satisfactory to be assured that the finances are in sound condition, and to know that the general prosperity of the colony is maintained.