Gambler’s Chances of Success.

New Zealand Graphic, Volume XLVI, Issue 4, 25 January 1911, Page 53

Gambler’s Chances of Success.

SOME MATHEMATICAL. FACTS AND FIGURES. (Told by Sir Hiram Maxim.] With the approach of the Monte Carlo season I suppose that a good many misguided persons are thinking of setting out for that beautiful and seductive spot iu Che hopes of “breaking the bank,” or, as they would probably term it, “making a little easy money.” It is incomprehensible to me how thousands of ordinarily sane people can go on losing money year after year, and yet always remain confident of winning iu the end. The bank always has, always does, and always will, win at roulette—or at any other organised game of chance -and yet thousands of pounds still change hands at Monte Carlo every week. With horseracing it is the same. The bookmakers always win in the end, just as the bank always wins at Monte Carlo. Indeed, it is only necessary to remember that hundreds of bookmakers make comfortable livings in order to be convinced, for BOOKMAKERS CAN ONLY LIVE ON WHAT PUNTERS LOSE to them. In spite of this, however, the gan>e still goes on, for the gambling spirit •eems inbred In the British race, although there have been more laws passed In England against gambling and games of chance than there have been In any other country. Some years ago I collected evidences from • large number of working men who were

in the habit of backing horse# to the extent of about 23 per cent of their earnings. Taking their investments over a considerable time, I discovered that they only won back about one-third of the money that they staked, and I have known many backers experience even more disastrous results. Now let us turn to THE GAMBLING TABLE AT MONTE CARLO > t and other Continental resorts, and see what sort of chance the general public have of holding their own. For Home reason or other, roulette is a far more popular game than trente et quarante at such places, although the players of the latter game hold ci better chance of winning. To be exact, the chances against them are 1.35 per cent and 1.29 per cent respectively. As a matter of fact, I am convinced that very few visitors to Monte Carlo understand the game, or its mathematical chances af all. There are six even chances at roulette, red and black, odd numbers and even numbers, numbers 18 or less, and numbers 19 or more. In playing on any of these so-called even chances the bank and the players keep even so long as the ball falls into one of the thirty-six numbered pockets, but on the occurrence of the thirty-seventh division on the roulette, zero, all the stakes are put “in prison,” when the player has the choice of taking up one-half of his stake or allowing it to remain on the board. Thus, suppose his stake is on black; if black come# up at the new coup his stake is liberated, and he has the option of taking up the whole of it, or allowing it to remain on the board. But if red comes up then he loses all. It will, therefore, be seen that the percentage in favour of the bank- is not 1.-37th, but half of them —that is to say # 1-74 th part of all the money staked on even chances. - » - ‘ It is a curious commentary on i THE “CUSSEDNESS” OF HUMAN NATURE that there are to-day just as many people trying to' evolve some method of playing which will “break the bank” as there was a decade ago. And no matter how clearly the invincible position occupied by the bank at a regulation roulette table may be pointed out, your enthusiastic ‘ advocate of systems Is always ready with a reply—a reply, howefer, which, unfortunately from his point of view, is never justified by results; .Systems are most ingenious inventions of the bank to mislead players.' r . J ; Many a time have I heard people say when a certain has. prpved successful for a short time,-.“Now, at last, somebne has discovered the much-sought-after secret of success.” But, strangely/enough, the croupiers seem in no way perturbed; one does not hear that the gambling rooms are to be. closed, and the proprietors still wear the same confident smile, no matter how long sustained may he the fortunate player’s winning run. Suddenly, in some “unaccountable manner,” the system seems to go wrong—or shall I say the table behaves with unbecoming eccentricity?—and the hitherto successful gambler makes a speedy exit. BELIEVERS IN SYSTEMS —and their name is legion—are surprised, nay, pained, and set to work to discover the weak spot in their predecessor’s plan ■of campaign preparatory to-making still another onslaught on the bank. Having laid their finger upon the supposed “weak spot,” they return to the attack. The proprietors of the gambling rooms welcome them with a smile—and take l-60th of all the money staked. tSystem-mongers, players with no fixed plan of campaign, and casual visitors who “chance their luck” as the mood takes them, may continue to flock to the gambling tables brimful of confidence that at last they have discovered the true secret of “being blessed financially.” But at the end of, sRy, six months or a year the bank will surely take that profit to which it is mathematically entitled.