CHANCE

Waikato Times, Volume 116, Issue 19457, 22 December 1934, Page 9

CHANCE

(To the Editor.) j Sir, —I wonder how many really believe in luck or chance, or could define exactly what they mean by thai term as applied to games and sports of a speculative nature. There may , be, after all, a law underlying the cor- j related sequence of events. Chance j is an “idea” which determines the course of events in the absence of law . or causation. What Is sometimes confused as the "doctrine of chanoe is in reality the theory of probability.’ | Again we have the law (or theory) of averages and the law of repetition. 1 The whole business of large com- j panies ’for insurance or assurance of ; lives is based upon the theory of probabilities, averages and repetition’s. Consequently to assign a future event we must have knowledge of a number of similar events. The law of averages amounts to tills: If a'die, a perfect cube, be thrown, say, .2000 times, every num- j ber will turn up; the difference be- I tween them will be very slight; -or, again, if a die be thrown, say% 20 limes, it is almost impossible for a | number—Die five, for example, not to show up at all. - As a further example take roulette; The wheel is divided into 37 compartments (0-36): the wheel is set In 1 motion; a ball is thrown into the wheel; players stake their gold on any one of the given numbers. When the wheel comes to rest the ball settles in one or other of the compartments. Assuming we have been playing for two hours; the ball has gone into ; every compartment, with the, exception of the 2, 8 and .13— according to the law of averages it is impossible for the ball to miss those compartments for. any greater length of time. In, reference to horse-racing, in all “probability” the first, second or 1 third favourites, somewhere near the top-weights, will be the first past the post; a middle-weight may spring a surprise; an outsider may spring a still greater one. According to the'law | of repetition the big dividends come from the first three weights above the bottom-weight. I have only touched upon the very fringe of the question, chance versus law. —I am, etc., HARRY WOODRUFFE. Auckland, December 20, 1934.