THE UNITED STATES.

Waikato Times, Volume 110, Issue 18392, 28 July 1931, Page 10

THE UNITED STATES.

ILLUMINATING LECTURE. A CHANGED OUTLOOK. The world depression, more particularly as it .affects the United Slates, and the changed outlook of that country as brought about by the depression, formed the theme of a very interesting lecture given by Dr. R. >l. Campbell to a general meeting of the Wellington Philosophical Society. Dr. Campbell, as Dr. E. Marsden, who presided, pointed out, was well known as a student of economics. As a result of the depression, said Dr. Campbell, there had been specific changes in thinking in the United States. There was no doubt about the severity of the way the depression had struck the States. For some time no official figures were available as regards unemployment there. One could find out to a high degree of accuracy how many pigs were in the States, but not how many unemployed. Recently it was somewhat reluctantly admitted that there were over 6,000,000 unemployed, the present figure probably being between 8,000,000 and 9,000,000. “The severity of the depression in the States is probatny much the same as that in England, and twice as bad as it is in New Zealand.’’ England and Europe, the lecturer pointed out, had sunk gradually into the present position, whereas the United States had plunged headlong into it in 1929-30. From 1922 to 1929, with a slight recession in 1923, the States had enjoyed an era of national prosperity, which was well diffused. There were- some black spots which did not join in the general thanksgiving, notably mining and agriculture. Rut although there was general prosperity, even then there was unemployment. But the boom was a reality, and it was widely believed that the secret of endless prosperity had been discovered, and this was believed both inside and outside Uie States.

Era of High Wages. High wages purchased back the wealth that was being created, and the high wage fetish received official acceptance in a way that might seem strange to New Zealanders. Employers were even exhorted to increase wages, and academic _ economists supported the exhortation. In 1922 there was an attempt to reduce wages, but this was defeated by the trade unions, and employers were forced to instal effective machinery ■to counterbalance the dear human labour; hence arose the machinery supremacy. Big employers and trusts promised not to cut wages. But when the first of the series of Stock Exchange crashes began there were cuts in some smaller concerns, but the culs were made apologetically and furtively. Civil servants, said Dr. Campbell, have not even considered an onslaught on their wages—such a thing has not been suggested.

A Changing Outlook.

Dr. Campbell then indicated that as a result of the depression the outlook of the United States towards social legislation lias begun to change. Social legislation, he said, has been looked upon with contempt in the States. The dole in England was looked upon as an effective cause of the continuance of unemployment. It and similar measures were regarded in the States with impatient contempt. “But the effect of one and a halfyears v>f depression has caused a fundamentally different attitude towards the whole question, and we now have the •spectacle of Hoover’s adviser on unemployment making a special trip to England and Europe to study the question of unemployment.’’ Despite the prosperity In the States, a decreasing number of people have had employment during the last few years, although the output has been greater. One of the new features of the age-old unemployment problem was the number of men in highly paid and skilled positions who were out of work. A new factor was the unemployment of people formerly in administrative positions. Curbing Over-production.

“ This leads,” said the lecturer, “to the main consideration, that of over-production, which is the popular cry in the United States. It is the alleged cause of the world depression.” The lecturer instances cases of this. The boot factories in the States could produce 900,000,000 pairs of boots, but only 300,000,000 pairs were wanted annually. Money lent by the Federal Government had been used to destroy grapes in California, and In many branches of agriculture drastic steps were being taken to reduce production. Irrigation and reclamation schemes had been held up for the same purpose, and everywhere steps were being taken to curtail production. Shorter Hours Advocated.

This, Dr. Campbell pointed out, doubtless seemed absurd, but such was the case. In 1820 seven-eighths of the population were engaged in tin production of foodstuffs and raw material from the land. In 1920 only onequarter of the population was so engaged, the others being absorbed in the semi-luxury services. “ It is simple logic to deduce from this and other factors that the one way out from the difllcuities of technological unemployment is to work considerably shorter hours. The world should witness a concerted move in tills direction.”

In the Stales, continued tho lecturer, old objections to trusts had largely vanished, although laws against them were still on the statute books. Even Hoover was urging consolidation of railways and similar concerns. One reason why mining and agricu'turo had not shared in the prosperity of the boom years was because they were more individualised than other concerns.

Eyes on Russia. The depression in the Slates had caused a flood of interest in economic planning. The happy experience of the war years was remembered, when material needs were better satisfied owing to organised control. “ Such talk is popular,” said Dr. Campbell. “ and it Is saiil that before long a selfrespecting citizen will no more think of walking the roads without an economic plan in tiis pocket than ho would without his trousers. Hut ninetenths of this economic planning is only talk, allhough it Is true beyond doubt that they have deluded themselves into Iho belief that planned economy lias been achieved. This lias had an undesirable effect in that it lias deluded people into thinking that the crisis is ended.” There was a great change now in the attitude of the Stales to foreign countries. There, was enormous interest in Soviet Russia. Three large newspapers had special corrcspond-

(Continucd in next column.)

ents in Russia, and columns were devoted daily to their dispatches. This marked difference to the attitude of the London papers might he attributed to the fear that Europe has of Communism, the Slates feeling secure in this respect.

Although the Slates felt themselves as different from Europe, they were now taking much more interest in what went on across the Atlantic. There was probably small chance of tho States joining the League of Nations, but they now wanted co-operation with Europe, recognising that catastrophe there would perhaps wreck them too. Tariffs in the States, suggested Dr. Campbell, might come scaling down just about the time when England's go up.

Watching New Zealand. State control experiments In New Zealand, said the lecturer, were being watched with something much more than polite interest In the States. Hydroelectric undertakings, railways, post and telegraph services, and other services usually left.to private enterprise were of much interest to them and were becoming a dominant political issue in the country. It was recognised that New Zealand had gone a considerable distance in this direction and that the States would be bound to follow.

Dr. Campbell concluded with a word as to the prophets. No economist, he said, could foresee the end of the present depression. Prophets had already been falsified. The present depression was not something that had come suddenly out of tho blue. It was. inevitable ns things had been shaping Depressions had come before and would come again, “ so that when we do emerge we shall be in a fair way towards another." The present depression, however, had features which distinguished it from others. He referred to the orgy of stock exchange speculation and of bank failures that went on in the States, hut not in England or in New Zealand. Rut the ie features, lie added, were easy to exaggerate, although in the States ns fewer than 1300 banks had failed.