AN UPWARD SWING.

Waikato Times, Volume 104, Issue 17585, 14 December 1928, Page 9

AN UPWARD SWING.

NEW ZEALAND TRADE. BUSINESS DURING OCTOBER. v ■ DAIRY PRODUCE INCREASING. "The relevant statistical indices reveal generally prosaic business conditions for the month of October," remarks the Government Statistician in Abstract of Statistics for November. "An upward swing in the general price level, the continuance of a favourable visible balance in the overseas trade, and a plentiful supply of funds in the banks as evidenced by the ratio of advances to deposits, are. however, factors which indicate that in the normal course of events the volume of business will Increase in the not-dis-tant future. Meanwhile it must be noted that the volume of business in October, as measured by the bank debits and clearings, was below that for September; that real estat* transactions, passenger and freight traffic on the railways, overseas shipping, build ing activity, and imports all showed recessions. The number of bankruptcies appears to be receding, but the unemployment situation, although improved since September, is still more unsatisfactory than in October of last vear. October contained four Sundays, one public holiday, and twenty-six working days. Dairying and Meat Industries. "The production of butter and cheese for the current season, as indicated b } the grading figures, continues to outstrip all previous seasons. Butter and cheese gradings for October were 8.0 per cent, and 23.9 per cent, respeclivelv above the corresponding period in 1927, while the cumulative llgurcs for the three months of the present season show increases of 10.7 per cent, and 28.2 per cent, respectivelyover last year. Compared with the average for the first three months of the last ten seasons the butter and cheese production for the current season shows increases of 71.(5 per cent, and 02.3 per cent, respectively. Jn utilising the current figures as indicators of the probable production for the season, account should be taken of the fact that the present has been an exceptionally early season. •'October marks the end of'the season for the frozen meat export trade; exports during this month are at a low ebb. Their main significance lies in the fact that they complete the twelve months' figures. The quantities oi frozen lamb and beef for the twelve months show increases of 8.0 per cent and 83.3 per cent, respectively over the figures for the preceding season, while mutton shows a deebne of 6.2 per cent. The better prices ruling during the season for lamb and beef are reflected in the aggregate values recorded for these products; the aggregate return on the exports or frozen lamb for the twelve months ended October, 1928, showed an increase of 12.4 per cent., while beet showed an advance of 100. i per cent. .Mutton prices apparently aid not vary from those recorded for the previous season, as the relative decrease in the aggregate value for this commodity was the same as that for the quantity —\iz., 0.22 per cent. External Trade. "The recorded visible exports in October were' 18.5 per cent, above the same month last year, and 7.1 per cent, above September, 1928, while for the ten months they are running on a level 20.3 per cent, above last year. The import trade, which is generally regarded as a good index to the state of internal trade in the Dominion does, rot siiow the marked upward ■ swing characteristic of this time of the year. Indeed, the figure for October, although 2.4 per cent, above the same month last year, was 11.4 per cent, below that for September. That continues on a level 1.5 per cent, below that recorded last year. The visible balance of trade in favour of the Dominion for the ten months shows £11,730,317, against £2,987,721 for the same period twelve months ago. An even brighter outlook is reflected from the figures for the last two October years; exports are now approximately £10,000,000 above last year, while imports are about £500,000 down. Railways and Shipping. "Ordinary passenger traffic on the railways for the four weeks ended October 13, was running on a lower level than for the same period last year or the immediately preceding period; while the volume of freight handled showed an advance over last year's period but was below that ending on September 15. Ordinary passenger traffic for the period under review was 2.9 per cent, below last year's similar period and 13.1 per cent, below the preceding period, freight traffic showing an increase of 2.1 pec cent, and a decrease of 0.5 per cent, respectively. For the cumulative period ordinary passenger traffic is 4.9 per cent, below last year, while freight traffic, as indicated by the net ton miles, is 4.2 per cent, above. Season ticket holders show an increasing tendency and are running on a level above last year. There were 3287 miles of Lrack open in October, against 3181 miles in October of last year.

Overseas shipping in October was 10.0 per cent, above the same month last year, but 5.7 per cent, below September; the cumulative figure for the ten months shows an increase ot 2.5 per cent, above last year. The figures i'or coastwise shipping show October to have been much busier than usual; they show a level of activity 18.3 per cent, above that for the same month last year and 17.1 per cent, above September. The cumulative ilgures for the ten months show the volume of freight carried for the current year to be 4.8 per cent, above last year. Finance.

"The half-yearly charging of interest by the banks of issue at the end of the September quarter had the effect of increasing the total advances and carried the ratio of advances to deposits a few points higher. This ratio has been climbing steadily upwards since about last .June, and is indicative of gradually expanding business conditions. There has been a seasonal decline in the excess of advances over deposits, but there is evidence of ample funds to provide increased purchasing power. "Evidence of increased spending power is to be had in the figures of mortgages discharged. These show unusual activity in October. The value of mortgages discharged during that month was 28.3 per cent, above that for October, 1927, and 13.5 per cent, above that for September; while that for the ten months is 7.0 per cent, above the same period last year. Considerable activity was also recorded in mortgages registered, which in October were 8.6 per cent, above the corresponding month last year and 13.0 per cent, above September, 1928; the ten months' figure, however, for the pre-

sent year is 3.2 per cent, below that for last year. Prices. "The wholesale-price level is one of the most significant of the business indices at present available. Broadh speaking, rising prices are accompanied by increasing activity in business circles, and failing prices by depressed business. The general wholesale-price index for October shows 1572, against 1542 for October last year and 1557 for September, 1928. The movement is robbed of full significance by the fact that it is to a certain extent of a seasonal nature, and, further, that it is due to a substantial rise in one ,r t . oU j) viz., consumers' foodstuffs. The index number for this group rose from 1532 in September to 1592 m October A decrease from 1310 in September to 1289 in October was recorded for the producers' goods for farming group. Notwithstanding these Qualifications it is significant at this juncture that the general wholesaleprice index shows a substantial rise.'

IMPORTS AND EXPORTS. BIG INCREASE SHOWN. (By Telegraph.—Press Assn.) WELLINGTON, Thursday. For the period of eleven months ended in November, 1928, New Zealand imports totalled £41,403,657, and exports, £51,805,163, compared with £40,833.748 and £43,097,870 respectively for the corresponding period of 1927. Imports during November, 1928, amounted to £4,748,374, and exports £3 359,533, compared with £3,561,47-1 and £2,837,875 in November last year.