THE RUHR MUDDLE.

Waikato Times, Volume 98, Issue 15313, 14 August 1923, Page 8

THE RUHR MUDDLE.

LLOYD GEORGE’S VIEWS*

ESTIMATES FALSIFIED

BAB LOOK-OUT FOR EUROPE

Australian and N.Z. Cable Assn. LONDON, August 8 (Delayed). Mr I.loyd George, in his fortnightly article on current affairs, surveys the problems of the Ruin' occupation and reparations. What a muddle it all is, he writes Prance and Germany are both anxious to settle, but are .too proud to say so. Belgium is sorry she ever entered the Ruhr, but cannot get out of it. Every •time she tries to get away France pulls her back roughly by the .tail of her ; coat, so that she has 'to do sentry duty ; at Essen while her franc is leading a j wild life at home. Italy has forgotten • that she ever sanctioned the occupation, and her moral indignation is mounting rapidly, although it has not yet risen to a height which is visible across the Alps. Britain is growling futile notes of dissatisfaction with everybody, Franco and Germany alike. The confusion of tongues is deafening aud paralysing. No one is quite happy except the spirit of mischief, who is holding his sides in laughter. He never had such a time, not since the Tower of Babel, and this time it may end in a second deluge. The horror of the Great War seems to have unhinged Europe’s mind. Her blood pressure is still very high, and the excitement over the Ruhr does not improve it. When the diligent liistorjan a generation hence reads some of the articles written and, speeches delivered to-day, he will recognise the ravings of a Continent whose mental equilibrium was upsot by a great shock. . , The real issue involved in all this ■ Struggle is comparatively simple. How much can Germany pay, and how can she pay? The United States, Britain, Italy and Germany are all agreed that ithe only way to settle the question is to appoint competent experts to report upon it. The Pope also has blessed ithis obvious suggestion. France, on the contrary, says that it is a question to be determined by guns and generals. Both are equally well-fitted for that task. Germany must present her account to the mitrailleuse and argue ..her case before the 65.

Warnings from History.

Although I do not fear 'recalling my predictions in previous articles, I hesitate to hazard a fresh forecast, but one may review the possibilities, and note the drift of whirling currents. In assessing chances you must begin with some knowledge of the man who will decide tlic event. M. Poincare is a man of undoubted ability and patriotism, but he is also a man who' lives in a world of prejudices so rterse that they obscure the facts. In his last Note he says that the conferences and ' ultimatums of the past four years have obtained nothing out of Germany. What are the facts? During the three and a-half years preceding the Ruhr invasion Germany paid to .the Allies in cash and kind over 10,000 million gold marks, a considerable effort for a country just emerged from an exhausting war, whose foreign trade was down 70 per cent. You might imagine that the man who had taken the grave step of ordering armies to invade a neighbour’s territoriss would h&vc I»aJ£Cii ‘tlic 'trouble to ascertain the elementary facts of the case. Will the next three and ahalf years bring anything approximating to that amount? ■ ■ . It is a safe statment to make that no one in charge of the French movements anticipated resistance approach- ; jng in stubbornness to that encounter- •' ed. The friendly press both in France and here foretolda speedy collapse of German opposition. All the French plans were based on that assumption. Soldiers estimate chances of resistance in terms of material and trained men. Statesmen too often build their hopes on the same shallow foundations. They never allow for the . indomitable re- ’ serves of the human heart, which do not figure in Army Lists or Statesmen’s Annuals. The resistance of Paris in 1870 was as great a surprise to Bismarck as the stubbornness of the Ruhr miners is to M. Poincare today There were few men in England who thought that the Boer peasants would continue resistance for three months after our armies had reached South Africa. The Northern States of ; America never contemplated the possibility of a five years’ struggle with a blockaded, starved and overwhelmed 'Confederacy. The war of 1914-19 is littered with miscalculations attributable to the blind refusal of rulers and .their advisers to recognise the human element as a factor in the reckoning.

French Estimates Falsified. The Ruhr 'tragedy Is not the first, taor will it be the last initiated by facile memoranda framed by general staffs and civilian functionaries, drawing inspiration from pigeon holes. Whatever becomes of this episode, it is already clear that estimates have been hopelessly falsified. There are already as many Frenchmen in the Ruhr as Napoleon commanded at Waterloo. As to coal, they have sent across the frontier in six months an amount about equal to a month’s delivery by the • Germans during the period of default which provoked the invasion. Desperate efforts have been made to satisfy French and foreign opinion that the German resistance is gradually breaking down. Rubbish has been shovelled ; into waggons in order to swell the quota of coal seized everywhere, even in the streets, and M. Trocquer, in charge of the transport arrangements, breezily challenges critics to look at the mounting pyramids of his dustcart collection, and rejoice with him in the triumphs of French organisation. Alas M. Trocquer’s Celtic lire, even when fed by the sweepings of the Ruhr, cannot keep going the Lorraine blast furnaces, so there is disappointment and discontent among the forgemasters of France.

Alt the same, there must he a limit to human endurance. Either France or Germany must give way in the end. In answering these questions one must remember that Franco’s honour is involved in success. Every Frenchman knows that France’s prestige will be damaged if sire fails. That is why French statesmen who disapprove of the invasion support the Government to bring it io a successful end, and 'here France has a legitimate complaint against her Allies. It is all very well for Italy to coungel wisdom. Signor Mussolini was present at the “ hush conference ” which sanctioned the invasion. He fixed his price of assent in coal tonnage, and that price has been regularly paid. Belgium is becoming scared at the swelling magnitude or the venture, hut she has comrniltced her own honour, as well as that of France to carrying it through. I am sorry lo think that Britain is not free of such responsibility in (lie mailer. Jt is true filial her representatives dsnpproved of Hie enterprise, hut not on grounds of right or justice. On the contrary, while ex-

pressing grave doubt as to ultimate success, they wished France’s Govern-

ment well in the enterprise, Not one of the Allies is in a position with a clear conscience to UTge France to haul down her flag. There is only one course which could be urged on France consistent with French honour, that is reference ol' the dispute to the League of Nations. That would be an enforcement of the Treaty of Versailles, but that ■suggestion the British Government has refused to press on France.

It may be assumed that France will insist at all costs that she enforce her will. Incidents inseparable from foreign occupation have exasperated German opinion and reached depths of hatred never stirred even by the Great War. The deportations of 75,000 Germans from their homes in the Ruhr, repressions and shootings, and a myriad insolences are unchallengeable. Force and hatred are bad negotiators. There is a movement to create a Rhineland Republic, fostered by French agencies and financed by French subventions. If it is declared, Prussia will not be allowed to suppress it. Wc may, therefore, soon witness a Rhineland Republic, whose glorious freedom and independence will be jealously guarded by lihe coloured warriors of Senegal and Cochin China.

If Germany dissolves, then the Rhineland and Ruhr will remain under French dominion. France would not secure reparations, but she would enjoy security and conjectures that she would enormously enhance her power in the world. The old French dream would be realised. Bismarck’s work would be undone, and Napoleon’s restored and perpetuated. There is an old Welsh saying that it is easy to kindle fire on an old hearthstone. This idea of the Rhineland under French domination is the old hearthstone of Charlemagne. Mazarin sought to relight its flames; Napoleon kindled on it a blaze that scorched Europe; Napoleon the Third had hopes of warming his hands at the glow of its embers; now the great victory of 1918 has once more set French ambitions to revive the fire on the old hearthstone. It is a bad look-ont for Europe.