OUR YORKSHIRE LETTER.

Wairarapa Daily Times, Volume LVIII, Issue 8943, 18 December 1907, Page 2

OUR YORKSHIRE LETTER.

-—— ♦ (From Oα<• Special Correspondent.) BRADFORD, Nov. 1, 1907.

ARE PRICES DANGEROUJtf The wool situation is exceefiMpfly interesting, and upers everywhere" are looking on with something more than passive attention. The events of the past few weeks have undoubtedly helped considerably to force home the question whether wool prices are resting upon a sound foundation, and whether, like wheat, cotton and copper, a fall is imminent. This much can be said, that, unlike the commodities already enumerated, speculation is an unknown quantity, there being in the mouths gone by no attempts made whatever to "rig" the market. All the same, prices have steadily advanced, until to-day, as a new season opens, values are higher than even at the end of October in the-famoos boom year of 1899. It will bo a strange anomaly indeed it' we can go through another season without any set back at all, and after the financial disaster in Wall-street it behoves everyone look well to their moorings. The - worst may be passed, - but a crash of the dimensions of the past few weeks cannot happen without a nasty boiug left behind which can to further unfavourable developments in even English financial quarters. So far, wool interests seem to have been left untouched, but we rather look for the bauk rate being affected, which is bound to fall heavily upon importers just at that very time when they need most consideration at the hands of bauks. It is quite true that last year, with even a six per ceut. bauk rate, all went through without a hitch; but this is not altogether a sound argument as one looks forward to the coming new wool season.

It is well to remember tliat prices for wool are at a very different level from what they were at this time twelve mouths ago, aud it is that fact which, among many users, is inducing a commeudable degree of cautiou. It will be strange indeed if, with a prospect of a tighter money market at the close of the year than auy anticipated just wheu heavy imports have to be liquidated, together with dear coal and considerably higher cost of all mill supplies, prices for wool will be maintained at to-day's level. We do not , wish iv the least to throw over the %»,■-• market a wet blanket, for price*j|fes still inherently sound; but, like these, it is not so much what are the actual governing factors as other stroug adverse contributing forces which perhaps temporarily upset prices. Perhaps it will be as well to remind even growers how prices stood at the end of October during recent years, and the following table supplies some very interesting particulars:— \ T . S. WaU-s Super Avg. Greasy ay j. 60 s 40's combing;. tops. tops, d. d. d. d. October, 1907 15X— 29 Xi October, 190(5 14 ~ —14j5 -&\y, 15% October, 1905 15 — lo>.< 2 16 October, 1904 13 —14 " 23% 14^ October, 1903 13 —14 UU V2 3 4 October, 1902 13 —14 2±Q 8 October, 1901 10 —my l</y 7 J ,.< October, 1900 B}4— 18y 9 ~ October, 1899 13>£—14*| 31 " il No one can glance at the above table without noting that the cost of the raw wool to-day is something like lfod per lb. dearer than at the end of the fifth series of London sales in the boom year of 1899, and yet the price of super 60's tops is actually 2d per lb. less than then. On the other hand good average 40's crossbreds are od per lb more—a fact which is iudjiuug buyers to "bear" prices in thwßpe of affecting Ohristchurch aud other New Zealand markets which open about the middle of November. But fine wools claim the most attention, and it is these which are giving rise * to considerable doubt. The question IL_ arises, Can the trade stand to-day s * rates, and afford to lift the Australasian and South Africa new clip, and use the same at a profit? If it can, then all we can say is that price, per lb. is of less consequence to woollen aud worsted manufacturers ihau what has hitherto been supposed, and although trade is unusually good and stocks light, there is before users a pretty heavy task. It may be retorted that this was done last year, and everything passed off well. That, no doubt, was so, but the price of a super (X)'s top is to-day W/A per lb. more thau a year ago, and it is this fact which suggests some degree of caution. If the price of a super fiO's top to-day was at the same figure as a year ago. we should unhesitatingly say to all users, get hold of the wool, but with American financial interests being weak and uncertain, a Presidential election next year, aad declining prices for other at home, it behoves the trade, with also a prospect of dearer money and a possible big railway strike, to make haste slowly. All kinds of wild statements are being made regarding supplies, but all the talk of a serious shortage in the coming Australian clip is worth no more than consignment to the waste paper basket.

Happily, manufacturing districts, both here and on the Continent are still exceedingly busy, and consumption is being well maintained. This is undoubtedly the sheet anchor of the whole situation. No doubt both France and Germany are to-day experiencing somewhat of a squeeze, but by the end of November that will have entirely disappeared. The new clip is being rushed to market with all possible speed, and already there is an increase of 140,000 bales marketed compared with this date a year ago. It will be well for everyone to bear this in mind, for supplies are going to be at the mill doors of Europe at a much earlier date than was the case towards the end of 1906. It is some satisfaction to know that last year's clip is entirely off the hands of manufacturers, and Yorkshire spinners have contracts in hand which will see them at least into next March. This gieans that plenty of raw material be required, but this fact must n6t be forgotten that the majority of the present contracts have been accepted at a lower basis than what are-current prices. That being so the trade is wisely calling for a halt in the onward course of values, and we honestly think that a mistake will be made if prices are pushed up higher. There is no need for it, and even growers' best interests will be served if prices keep steady. The situation wants watching carefully, and although in the very nature of things there can be no slump, still wool is dear enough, and a further advance would do more harm than good. We

might as well say straight here that colonial prices are not above Bradford, for cheaper wool has been bought during, the month for top-raaking purposes than what was sold' at the last seep' of Loudou sales. Values, we repeat, are high euougb to be consistent with safety, and everybody will do well to watch, especially mouetary and labour developments. The position of crossbreds is hardly as clear as merinos. There is proceeding a strong "bearing" movement, but I don't think that prices are goiug to be lower. Trade is too good to allow values to fall much, and New Zealand growers cau still look forward to receiving good prices for their forthcoming clip.

COURSE OF PRICES

Bradford shows little change on the " week, and new business is extremely quiet. Quotations are practically nu■altered, though if anything 40's are a fraction cheaper, largely through "bear" influence. The following table shows the course of prices during the past mouth, the quotations given in the last column being today's asking prices, Bradford terms: Oct. Oct Nov. <jt 4. 18. 1. d. d. d. Lincoln hogs. ... 12 J 12$ 12$ „ wethers ... 12-} 11| H| Yorkshire hogs. ... 14 13£ '3^ „ wethers ... 12J 12-* 12$ North hogs. ... 132 132 ™l „ wethers 12$ 12$- 12£ Halfbred hogs. ... 13 12f{ „ wethers ... 12-J 12} 12} Shropshire hogs. ... 14 14 13$wethers ... 13J- 13-]- 13 Super Stafford hogs. 13} 13 13 wethers 122 121- 12-1 Kent wethers ... 12} 12£ 12| Irish hogs. ... 13 12* 12J „ wethers ... 12} 12 llf Wiltshire Down tegs 14i 14i| 14$ „ ewes 14} 14 14 Devon greasy ... 8| 8$- 8$Hampshire Downs ... 14 14} 14-J Sussex Downs ... 14$- 14$ 15 Cheviot hogs super ... 12 11 -J- 11$Scotch Blackface ... 8$- 8} 8} Turkey average mohair ... ... 17| 172 18 Cape firsts mohair ... 15} 15} 15} Cape winter mohair ... 13 12.1 12-$----70's Colonial tops ... 31 31" 31 64's „ „ ... 30 30 30 -Jiffs „ „ sup. 29 29 29 JKm. , „ ... 21},- 25 25 „ „ ... 22' 22 22 4C>'< . „ ... 17-5- 17 17 40's ,'. „ ... 165 16} 16 36's „ „ ... 153 151. 15