The Wanganui Chronicle. MONDAY, NOVEMBER 7, 1949 THE TITO-STALIN FEUD

Wanganui Chronicle, 7 November 1949, Page 4

The Wanganui Chronicle. MONDAY, NOVEMBER 7, 1949 THE TITO-STALIN FEUD

'THE Tito-Stalin feud continues to occupy the attention of both of the countries immediately concerned and it appears that a war to the death between the two leaders is now in progress. American and British observers, however, do not at the moment discern whether the conflict will start a shooting war, although it must be admitted that the margin between that and a cold war is a thin one. The approach of winter should indicate that the shooting war has been postponed. While Russia prefers a winter campaign it does not follow that she would desire to see such a conflict in the Balkan Peninsula. When the Russians are engaged in a conflict their traditional method of defence is to withdraw into their own vast territory and to so extend the front of the invader. This gives to the defenders the greater opportunities for searching out the weak points on the enemy’s front and concentrating upon these. Tito, however, is not going to invade Russian territory. He has no intention of sending an army into the Ukraine or the Crimea. His front will never be extended, nor will his lines of communication grow longer and longer. This being so the staging of a winter campaign would provide Russia with none of her customary advantages. On that ground, then, the shooting war may be set at a discount. But are the Russians in any case likely to attack Jugoslavia? The probability is that openly there will be no Russian army of invasion. The Russian does not fight well outside his own country and the Soviet authorities are not very happy when even a few Russians get a peep at the outside world. Travel is not good for the Russian constitution. It unsettles the mind and makes it question authority. Any Russian who proceeds abroad must perforce undergo a reconditioning before he can be allowed to move freely about the Soviet Union. To send troops into Jugoslavia, then, would create difficulties which had better be avoided. But there is Hungary and there is Czechoslovakia, and on the Balkan side there is Rumania and also Bulgaria. If these countries can be induced to “claim their national rights” at the expense of Jugoslavia and take concerted action, then a war of liberation could be staged with an appropriate amount of assistance from the Soviet Union in the way of ammunitions, aeroplanes and technical directors. Then, if failure ensued, the Soviet Union would not suffer a major loss of prestige. As a preliminary step it is necessary for Russia to sustain weak little Albania on her feet. Jugoslavia could liquidate this political nuisance if left to herself. All that would be necessary would be to blockade the coast of Albania and the problem would be solved. Whether thiv would bring an open conflict with Russia is a matter for conjecture. At the moment the advantage is with Jugoslavia in that Albania is only a nuisance and does not constitute a menace. A beneficiary of the present Stalin-Tito feud is Greece. The Greek “rebels” are no longer encouraged to operate from Jugoslav territory and this enabled the Greek Army to concentrate upon the Albanian border. This concentrated strength of the Greek Army is sufficient to keep the border in order and prevent raids from that quarter being developed against Greek territory. Tito has cut his eastward contacts by liquidating his sea and air agreements with Russia. But Tito cannot carry out the largescale developmental plan inside his country without foreign aid. Unable to secure aid from Russia he must turn to America and Britain. To keep him going is good business for these Western Powers and consequently, notwithstanding Tito’s determination to work out his own pattern of development on lines of his own determining, they can be expected to deal with Tito on appropriate terms. . . Tito is not going over to the West. From his point of view he is standing where he has always stood, lie is making no.concessions to Western Capitalism; but he is, nevertheless, committed to dealing with the capitalist countries. His handicap lies within himself: he will feel that as he cannot command the terms of the bargain he is being dictated to whenever he comes up against the demand side of the deal. While there may be political reasons for keeping Tito going it would be unwise to allow Tito too much rope. In other words, to be too accommodating to Tito would only encourage him to emulate Oliver Twist and ask for. more. It would be better if Tito were required to deliver a quid pro quo for everything he receives within the year. At the moment, strange as it may appear, the hardness of bargaining is not on the side of the West but on the side of Jugoslavia. Should a shooting war develop the problems which confronted and baffled German armies when they occupied the country would be again presenting themselves to the invaders. Jugoslavia is a natural fortress country and any invader, while able to penetrate into the country in certain directions, would find the operation a costly one. In any condition of strain the Communist regimes of the invading neighbour countries might find themselves with more than foreign adventures on their hands. The recent round-ups in Balkan and Near Eastern countries can be interpreted as an effort to reduce the chances of an internal rising in each of the countries concerned.