ADVANCES IN BRITISH EXPORTS CANNOT BE LOOKED FOR

Wanganui Chronicle, 28 October 1948, Page 5

ADVANCES IN BRITISH EXPORTS CANNOT BE LOOKED FOR

Country Can Only Pay Its Way By Restricting Imports (N.Z.P.A.—Copyright.) LONDON, Oct. 27 (Rec. 6 pm).—The revised export targets, announced yesterday by the President of the Board of Trade (Mr. Wilson) are generally interpreted as a plain indication that the British export trade cannot anticipate further spectacular advances.

The revised targets mean that the Government does not now anticipate that next year’s exports will exceed those for this year by more than three per cent. As the “Manchester Guardian” puts it: “We’ve stopped jumping forward; a barely perceptible crawl is now the most the Government expects from all efforts to increase exports.” When this statement is considered in conjunction with the recent admission* by Sir Stafford Cripps that Britain will only just balance her accounts this year with the assistance of Marshall Aid, it becomes evident that the only method by which this country can hope to pay its w?y when Marshall Aid ceases is by. continuing to restrict imports. Present British imports are restricted to 80 per cent, of the quantities bought in 1938, and revision of export targets is taken to imply that this reduction in imports will become permanent. While it is generally admitted that there is a large and unsatisfied demand for many classes of British goods, particularmly machinery, in other directions competition is stiffening, and can be expected to become stiffer still, as some of Britain’s prewar competitors regain their strength It is hoped that the measures now being taken for European reconstruction will create fresh markets for British goods, but against this must be set increasing competition from Japan and also from Europe. One favourable aspect of Mr. Wilson’s statement, which has been welcomed by British industrialists, is an intimation that larger quantities of capital goods previously earmarked for export will in future be used for reconstruction in Britain itself.

Industrial leaders have been urging the Government to adopt this policy for some time past, and pointing out that British industry cannot continue indefinitely to work at its present pressure without substantial re-equip-ment. One immediate benefit of this new policy will be that a proportion of automatic weaving looms for the home market will be raised from 60 per cent, to 75 per cent, and that larger quantities of machine tools will go to home users. A point of interest to the Dominions, and particularly New Zealand, was the statement thaj tractor exports next year will be increased, and also exports of electrical machinery.

It is expected there will lie a slight decrease in the number of British cars sent abroad. This is not due to any diversion of cars to the home market, but to a shortage of steel.

One of the many complications which may affect Britain's export prospects is obviously the possibility that more materials' and men may have to be diverted to rearmament. It is now generally admitted that the very modest re-equipment measures already authorised in the three fighting services are the most that can be carried out without detracting seriously from export production. Anv further expansion of defence preparations will undoubtedly mean complete revision of export targets. This, in turn, may weli mean that Britain's only method of balancing her accounts will be to cut further imports still further. The Government is most reluctant to undertake this, as it is realised that the economic and political consequences would be fat reaching.