LOW BIRTH RATE

Wanganui Chronicle, Volume 80, Issue 254, 26 October 1937, Page 9

LOW BIRTH RATE

Population Changes HIGHER AGE GROUPS Effects On The Future Figures relating to the age constitution of the population which have been obtained from tjie 1936 census fully confirm expectations of farreaching changes in the population of European origin in the Dominion, according to the September issue of the Abstract of Statistics. It is stated that, due mainly to the decline in the birth rate, the population is moving to the higher age-groups. The Abstract states that, although the population as a whole, omitting Maoris, increased by 147,015 between 1926 and 1936, children under five years of age actually decreased by 17,693, and children between five and ten years by 4407. In 1936 children under ten formed only 16.45 per cent of the population, as aaginst 19.92 per cent in 1926, 21.44 per cent in 1921. and 31.85 per cent in 1874. At the other end of the scale the position is reversed. Persons of 60 years of age and over increased over the same decade by 50,304. In 1936 they comprised 10.44 per cent of the total population, as compared with 7.84 per cent in 1926, 7.49 per cent in 1921, and 2.33 per cent in 1874. Effects of Fewer Children These changes are stated by the Abstract to impinge on the social economy in innumerable ways. The diminished number of children not only affects schools and teachers, but also all those concerned directly or indirectly with the needs of children. The needs of elderly people diftei, and here the numbers are expanding. Of prime importance is the fact that, apart from migration gains or losses, there must inevitably be fewer workers of all classes available in years to come. For instance, in the group aged from 20 to 24 years, there were 133,539 persons in 1936. In 20 years’ time place will be taken by the group aged under five years in 1936, but this latter group numbered only 116,738, and deaths in the interim will have reduced its total by several thousand. In consequence, in 20 years’ time there will be over 20,000 fewer persons aged 20-24 years available for employment than there were of these ages in 1936. Position 5 ' Without Remedy Other age groups are affected in the same way, and it will be obvious that the position thus outlined is delimit, and irremediable. A future recovery of the birth rate would eventually reestablish numbers, but could not affeci the position as regards persons already in existence. Working on the Kuczynski reproduction rates, the Abstract says that, summed up, the position is that in 1936 the rate of reproduction in the New Zealand population was insuffl-

cient to maintain the population at its 1936 level. It is a statement oi what must inevitably happen if the 1936 conditions remain constant. It is of interest to note that the birth rate in 1936 was slightly higher than in the three years preceding. Returns for the first half of 1937 represent a further slight improvement on those for the corresponding period of 1936. The position of the Maori division of the population is now in contrast to that of the European division. The natural increase of the Maoris n« more recent years is sufficient to ensure a steadily rising population.