BRITISH ELECTION

Wanganui Chronicle, Volume 71, Issue 242, 12 October 1928, Page 9

BRITISH ELECTION

WHO WILL WIN? 1.-. attacking parties have tactical advantages at erections when they nave a good case, writes Sir Robert Donald in the Weekly Dispatch. Up to now the British government have given its opponents plenty oi material. j-»y-eiections are irreiutabie proof that it has lost popularity; it nas still a year anp .a-huu during which to regain ground. lt.s organisation machinery is understood to be more efficient than it has ever been. At the same time the organisers and leaders do not expect to repeat their triumph of 1924. The Conservatives at tne last election held 415 seats —an absolute majority of 215 over all other parties — ■L-abuur, Liberal a d independent. At the 1923 election they iielu 258 ; eats —99 fewer than the combined Opposition. 1 do not suggest that the uovernment will lose in the same proportion at the general inquest of the nation as at the by-elections, but tne political barometer points to the loss of about the same number of seats which they have gained in 1924 — namely, 157. How arc we going to allocate these seats? Forecasting the distribution from the by-elections, the trend of events, and the relative prospects of parties at the present time, 1 suggest tb about 100 will go to Labour and the balance to Liberals, making the parties on this calculation approximately:— s - Conservatives .. .. 258 Labour 252 Liberal 99 The forecast only assumes that Liberals will win seats from the Conservatives; they will also win some from Labour, while Labour has little scope foi* displacing Liberals. . Seats held by National Liberals, returned by Conservative votes, will be lost, but, on balance, I would give the Liberals about .120 —a readjustment which works out: — Conservatives .. •. 258 Labour 222 Liberal 120 The political meteorologist has other symptoms to take into account before arriving at a final leading of the situation. Weak factors beset Labour. The general strike reacted against the party, and the Trade Union Act handicaps it in raising campaign funds. By-elcctions reflected the effect of these adverse elements. In 1927 Labour made no headway. It won one election and lost one. T£is year it won Northampton and Linlithgow, both formerly Labour seats, but, with two exceptions, its polls did not show any appreciable increase. To speculate on what will be the effect of the Government’s continued record in fifteen months’ time, on the smash up of party values by the Equal Franchise (Flappers’ Vote) Bill, or by the* introduction of some measure which would awaken enthusiasm and enable speakers to sway multitudes, or , cgcct a quick turn-over of votes as did the Zinoviev letter —all these things are beyond the scope of the deductive article, based upon what has happened or is surely indicated. I repeat, however, that the key to the fortunes and fate of the two other parties is in the hands of the resurrected Liberals, and depends on the unity of their high command, the efficiency of their organisation, and the consolidation of their rank and filo. 1 conceive possible cirCuhistancos which would give Liberals a larger representation in the next House. In any case, thev are certain to hold the balance.