THE WOOL MARKET.

Waipa Post, Volume 48, Issue 3470, 24 May 1934, Page 2

THE WOOL MARKET.

PRJGEJ Alp): PR^JITCTION-

.authority on the wool market and the industry generally, "R. V. 8.," writing in the Australasian has" some interesting comments to.make with regard to. the outlook for wdpliri the 1934-.35 season. He says: .: .-.';■ : - i;.-'-: ■'■■■

c Repprts iiiufi the various woolgrowjng localities point to a generous plip for the coming season. Already spine of the more hopeful are predlciing a record output. More than 3,a»0,CK)0 bales are expected by a.few optimists. It }s early, of. course, to inake calculations, whjch at best can. bp jnere guests at ttii§ tjme of the yfar, since much can happen to upset the rough estimates before shearing time. Some parts, notably the Western district of Victoria, passed iijroijgh an pnsually dry period before the recent rains, but the seasonal Ojjtjffiftk generally.is satisfactory now, ajig it would/ pot be surprising if a clip the 3,200,0Q0-bale mark proved to be the yield of the Commonwealth next Reason. •Qpe pjegsing fegti}i\e in fhe outlook *£' ihf BTPWZf Of good yields for j§any gf'owers, Who, last season, were not 1 only down in their cuts a head, but Seriously short in their sheep numbers. Despite the better prices, slhjcji have rulecl throughput. the curj®M; ssaspn, . scores of growers received no better returns for their last clips than they received for the previous season, because of earlier '.Jpssesj. forfeit Projects. 4nd what arg the niarket prospects? If there are people "ready enough to forecast the approximate weight of wool that will be available for sale, I can find no specialist who wi)| venture upon a market forecast, .except with plenty of qualification. Thp nearest to an opinion worthy of .repetition was a statement by one spßc(al|st, who keeps well ahreast of happenings in the world of wool, that She expects the market next season to well. There will belittle or no carry-over in Australia, he explained, s ajuJ £Y§n less in South Africa. Stocks |n mapttfactiirers' are nowhere Jipavy, and by thf the new season "opens some important section of the manufacturing trade might- be very short of supplies. The mills in jtigst countries are fairly active alsoExchange is ? another factor. Wool, f¥«B, ai current , rates, e. x * change into, account, is by no means dear-' It is cheap, in fact, for some buyers. Then, another heavy shortage, in the South African clip is ex- . peeted.

• £\\ these sre points which influence prices, and combined they favour a strpng pp.enmg demand; but there ar«' : qth.ers nqt as favourable, he fearved. -For, example, although wool prices are reasonable, other commodities, ine|a.djng riyid textile fibres, are exceptionally cheap in comparison. Low prices ' have stimulated the demand fpr artificial and cotton goods. Previously, when wool was selling at 4bpV«t 8d § \b all round in the grease, the demand for wo°Hen goods greatly increased, and other textiles were driven from some of the markets. sbw, however, there are signs that the rjyal materials are coming into %yqUr. sgain on account of the higher cost of woollens. It was suggested further that the purchasing power pi' the masses—in Europe particu-lafly-rris not* strengthened materially, and the slightly higher, prices of Woollens, caused by the increase of the raw material, may result in a y/eaker demand for these goods. Another, item mentioned was the probable decline irj, the demand for • cloth in European countries. There has been a vogue for the uniform type of clothing of late -rrjnot necessarily fpr military use —■ a)cv4 s ur W? initial stages of this ? yogui th\ejre w,as brisk Work for the woollen mills to meet the special demand. - Import t.i<fss*q&' Till recently heavy duties on raw wool imports to the United States tfere the only serious barriers in the world to. the, free mpyement of wool ' but now, there is a tendency tc regulate imports to other countrigs. Germany, imposed a temporary and it is glajn that Germany .intends to "reg.ula.te:' her wool trade, has decided to, license, wool imposts. These, trading innovations applied; to wool are. offshoots of the j nes# policy of nationalism, or, shall w,% sa#, % symptom, of tJje economic Impost licenses may not curtail the lypoK requirements of the world, b&t tljey may divert trade, to new channels and affect prices. It is quite y^ithin. the founds of- probability that I Italy will seek better facilities for the. sale of her manufactured goods In Australia, and if-she is disappointed in this she may give preference to South Amerjican; or South African v/ppU But are the supplies available outside Australia? One might retort. Of course they are. In normal seasons almost as much fine wool is grown in South Africa as in Australia/ and South Africa has many merino flocks of- the best Tasmanian blood. The tendency in that country -is: bs to breed towards . the Tasmanian type: now rather than towards the stronger] wppls, as, in Australia. . "V-Npt:.-many years ago. the French manufacturers relied upon the fine wools; of ■ Australia, almpstly exclusively for thejij supplies, but they take almqst, as., much from South Africa

now. One of the leading French buyers informed me that in recent years his principals have bought more wool jn South Africa than here. On the other hand, when it comes to average merinos, Australia is in a dominating position, but these, top, are produced in South Africa in large quantities. Nor is South America right out of the merino reckoning. There are some very old fine-wool merino flocks in that. part Of the world, and, although the quantity produced is not very great, it is a factor.

Most people, including even those associated with the wool trade, are prone to the belief that because most of the merino wool of the world is grown in Australia, all countries which need clothing wools must compete for the Australian supplies, and this belief may be sound in general, but it is not sound if applied to the fine quality wools such as those taken by some of the French and Italian mills. Australian growers have more to fear from the tendency of Con: tinental manufacturers to fayour the South African market than the possibility of Japan buying more of her wool supplies outside Astralia. Outlook Clouded. Before the introduction of the quota and license systems to»regulate trade, all the signs poipted to a bright future for the wool-growing industry. The outlook may be just as cheerful still, but the new systems tc regulate trade arise from the more desperate and determined policies adopted by various countries aiming at self-containment, and these policies may affect the raw wool industry as they have affected already other primary industries. It would be foolish to assume that other countries are incapable of producing much more of their wool requirements. A cen? tury ago Spain, France, Saxony, Italy, Russia, Britain, the United Stages, and some other countries grew merino wool of superfine quality. France and Germany, now leading woolimporting countries, were then the principal countries of export. In later years it was the product of Australia, grown more cheaply than elser where, and allowed to enter every market without restriction, that determined the fate of the wool-growing industry in the older countries, but if these older countries elect t° d° so, by policies of nationalism, they can grow more wool, and they can grow merino wool. The cost may be great, it is true, but costs of production seems to be of but secondary consideration with the countries which are adopting plans of economic ispla? tion. There is nothing fanciful in the fear that large quantities of clothing wools can be grown in those countries of Europe which aim at self-containment. SHEEP IN JAPAN. COUNTRY NOT SUITABLE.

Statements that Japan might, in the course of a few years, produce a major portion pf the wool needed for her own requirements are not supported by the observations of Mr. H. C. Pennefather, one of the best known pastoralists and stud sheep classers in Australia, who returned recently from a visit to Japan. Mr. Pennefather said 75 per cent, of the country in Japan proper consisted pf steep and rough hills, while the remaining 25 per cent, was closely cultivated. The northern half of the country experienced bitterly cold winters, with deep snow, and all stock was housed. Inferior land —not including stony hills and mountains —sold at about £3OO an acre, and good land, well situated, at up to £3OOO an acre. Speaking generally, all animals were kept in yards and fed on the least valuable produce of the farm — even the roughage from tobacco plants. There were 30,000 sheep in Japan, and every year the Government bought about 500 ewes and 50 rams in Australia. Merinos were found quite unsuitable, and Romneys were discarded. For the last few years Corriedalos had been tried and they were considered satisfactory. Atfer examining the Australia-bred sheep which he saw in Japan, Mr. Pennefather said they would have cut 25 per cent, more wool on average Australian pasture. It was clear that Japan could not profitably carry a large number of sheep, and that the sheep-breeding industx-y there would not seriously disturb Japan's valued competition at A.u stra b%n sales. He was informed, however, that "fattail" sheep did well in parts of Manchukuo, but that their progency by any breed; of wool-covered rams were not sufficiently hardy to stand the long and extremely cold winter, A sheep-farmer from New Zealand who spent two years in Manchuria informed him that crossbreds would do well there if housed and fed during the six months of winter, but that the Governnient of Manchuria was unstable and in mar.ked contrast to that which the. Japanese had established in Manchukuo.