WAR RUMOURS.

Star (Christchurch), Volume LXVI, Issue 20276, 10 April 1934, Page 9

WAR RUMOURS.

Dispute on Manchurian Borders. JAPAN AND RUSSIA. (By FREDERICK MOORE, well-known Far East correspondent, and for several years foreign councillor to the Japanese Ministry for Foreign Affairs.) WASHINGTON, February 25. War in Siberia Is regarded in the best-informed quarters in Washington as now well Within the range of possibility. On both sides of the Manchurian border concentrations of troops have taken place on an extensive scale. Though exact numbers of men have been kept carefully secret, it is known that the preparations exceed in many ways the effectiveness which preceded the RussoJapaneso conflict in 1904. While reports indicate that Japanes* diplomacy is striving to settle the controversy amicably and possibly the dominant factor in Japan, the military element, is expected to make the' final decision. Information which has come to Washington indicates that the danger of America’s attitude has been the restrain-! uig influence up to the present. The concentration of the bulk of the American; Navy in the Pacific for the past two years lias divided the councils of Japanese defensive forces, causing the navuM rae °’. speaking generally, to oppose the ’onflict with Russia which military elements are willing to enter. The American Navy department** proposed transfer of a portion of the fleeti back to the Atlantic relieves tho Japanese of the feeling of anxiety regaiding America’s attitude and encourages their military leaders to go ahead. “Danger from the Sea.” Unless there is “danger from the *ea x . the Japanese are said to be confident their army can defeat that of Russia quickly, for the following reasons: First, the inferiority of that army, except ia airplanes, in Siberia; second, the financial condition of Russia, whose rubles, though nominally worth about 50 centsl can now be bought for one cent each; third, the internal condition of the Eurasian Empire; fourth, the fear that the Russian Government would have of taking the bulk of its army away from the European frontiers; and fifth, the impossibility of maintaining a sufficient force in Eastern Siberia at the end of a. railway line, which, after the terrible deterioration of 15 years ago, has never been adequately reconstructed and replenished with rolling stock. An Air Menace. The Japanese army, having had no other potential enemy to consider foe many years, that of China being of little lighting ability, has long regarded Russia* as the enemy it must ultimately fight again, and now appears to be the timej it is *aid, to settle the issue, particu4 larly before the Russian aeroplane deJ velopment becomes a factor that caij destroy the flimsily-built wooden cities Ot Japan. The Japanese army’s desire is said tm be the driving of that menace back beyond Lake Baikal. Already the Russians, according to certaia military} experts, have at least one advantage over the Japanese in the air. While they are in a position to destroy, Japanese and Manchurian cities, therei is no Russian city of importance except! Vladivostok which the Japanese can; destroy, and that once famous port is of little importance to Russia now, with-i out a navy or a single commercial vessel* of any importance in the Pacific Ocean. , Reports to Washington indicate tbaq the Japanese are dealing almost dicta-; torially in their diplomacy with the! Soviet Government in the many issues/ in controversy over Manchuria. After sending their troops into the Russian sphere and beginning to construct railways there, they are now supporting the Mancliukuo Government in efforts to purchase the Chinese Eastern rail-j way, but they offer what the regard as Jittle more than nominal pav-j ment for tl»e property. With the power} the Japanese hold over the M&nchukuoj Government they could command the release of the several Russian railway/ jffieials who are under arrest, but, in- J stead, they say that their retention is the Mancliukuo Government’s business, Waiting for an Excuse. On the other hand, the Soviet Govern-, meat is unable to use force against thatt of Manchuria, as it did only five years] ago, because of the alliance between! that country and Japan. In the opinions I of experienced American observers, the Japanese army w*uld welcome an attempt by the Soviet Union to apply pressure on Manchukuo, as it would give it an excuse for action precipitating war. But up to the present the Soviet Gov. jrnment has made none but diplomatic efforts to settle the controversies. It lias surrendered its position in North Manchuria to the Japanese, though in 192 S it took military action against the Chinese. But it has concentrated a force believed to be well over a hundred- thousand men on the Manchnrian border, with many aeroplanes. It is this force the Japanese Foreign Office has now asked to have withdrawn. Whether the request is a nrccurser to action only time can tell. But, it is pointed out,' Japanese diplomacy is traditionally courteous up to the very breaking point. Another issue between the two coun-, tries which is seldom mentioned in dispatches from Tokyo or Moscow is the fishing rights along the Russian Asiatic coast. Fishing rights to no other country in the world are so important as to Japan, whose people as a whole eat only about a pound of meat per person a year. Fish takes the place of meat in the daily diet of the sixty million people in Japan, and the bulk of the supply comes from Russian waters. This has been a source of controversy for half a century, the Japanese paying the Russians annually tens of millions of yen for the rights. \ The Situation Reversed. But the main issue is the desire of the Japanese to make their islands, and now their position on the mainland of Asia, secure; and evidence and information indicate that any excuse that Soviet Russia gives them will be taken as reason for action. While they may not take it if the Russians decline to withdraw their forces, any further increase would probably bring* an ultimatum or action without it. And in normal circumstances, it is contended, Russia should increase those forces. The situation in 1933 is the reverse of that of 1904. Russia then occupied Manchuria and menaced Korea: Japan now occupies it and menaces the Russian pacific littoral.—N.A.N.A. * .

Mr L. Francis, conductor of tha Westport Municipal Band, has been chosen out of seven applicants as conductor of the Greymouth Municipal Band.