The Star. WEDNESDAY, NOVEMBER 29, 1922. GETTING THE WIND UP.

Star (Christchurch), Issue 16902, 29 November 1922, Page 6

The Star. WEDNESDAY, NOVEMBER 29, 1922. GETTING THE WIND UP.

Signs are not wanting that the Reformers, to ns© a popular expression are “ getting the wind up badly ” ir the North Island over the coming ©lection. A Conservative journal, which can hardly be accused of bias in favour of the Liberals, has gone so fai as to publish a forecast of the results of the North Island contests, in which the Reformers appear to bo in rather doubtful straits. There were in 1919 forty-five seats In the North Island and Mr Masses' almost succeeded i?i scooping the £X>ol. Including the returns at by-elections, and Independents who consistently voted with Mr Massey on no-conlidence motions,. the state of parties in the Acrth Island in the last Parliament Reform .... 34 Liberal-Labour ... 7 Labour .... 4 One now seat —Hamilton—has since teen added to the North Island at tha expense of the South Island. The Conservative estimate of probabilities a.ud possibilities works out as follows: Reform certainties . . ‘JI

Of the fourteen Reform seat? classed as doubtful, the Conservative tipst<er gives Labour a good chance of securing five, and the Liberals a good chance of securing nine. The two Liberal seats regarded as doubtfui are both claimed as likely to he won by Reform, and of the tliree doubtful Labour seats, the Liberal? are given i banco of securing one and the Reformers the other two. Hamilton, the new seat, is awarded to Reform. Thus on the Conservatives’ own showing, the state of parties in the North Island is expected to be something like this : Reform . . . .2d Liberals . a . .Id labour .... 6 Total . . . .46 It lias to be borne in mind, however. that the estimate awards a number of seats to the Reform party as certainties which appear, from other xiuroes, to be exceedingly doubtful, ftden (Hon C. -J. Parr), Parnell (Mr L Dickson) Grey Lynn (now ’Labor). Oroua (Hon I). H. Guthrie; and [{-angitikei (Mr YV. S. Glenn) to nieu--ion a few of the seats which are Massed as certainties for Reform, may provide some of the surprises of the -lection. In these cases the wish for a Reform victory i<= father to the bought. It is significant that the Conservatives. on their own showing, are rpparently prepared to lose quite, a "’mber of seats to the Liberal and the Labour Parties. We believe that their :lismal expectations will be more than realised. The country has had enough »f Reformers who l ave failed to reorm. and the Government will receive ts notice to quit on the evening of December 7.

Ref orm doubtful . 14 Libera I certainties . 5 J .iberal doubtful . 4 , . 2 Laboup certainty 1 Labour doubtful . 3 Total \ . 46