POLITICAL PROSPECTS.

Star (Christchurch), Issue 19810, 29 November 1919, Page 5

POLITICAL PROSPECTS.

REFORMERS LOSING GROUND. THE POSITION REVIEWED. fpBOM Oub Correspondent.] DUNEDIN, November 28. The opinion has for many months been rapidly gaining ground that the Reform Party has not much prospect of securing a majority of seats at tho general election. For one thing, the Reformers never did at any time obtain a majority of the votes at a general election. They got into office originally through the assistance of renegade Liberals, while in 1914 they “scraped home,” as tho sporting writers say, through the fortune of circumstances. T'aat is, they got a majority ■ of seats with a minority of votes. Possibly, but not probably, if; the ■war had not . changed tne political situation, Mr Massey would have weathered the storm, .but it is not profitable to make guesses about that, because the war did happen, and with it came the truce and the National Government. That Government, it would seem, outlived whatever popularity it may have possessed at any period, and towards tne close of its regime it became dislik'ed. The opinion is now expressed by men who are supposed to know something about politics that the chief censure of the public for the National Government rests upon the Reform part of the coalition. Whether this is quite fair is a question that I should not like to have to answer, but the impression does exist and is fairly widespread. The political prophets are now say- ( ing that this feeling will bo manifested at the elections—-that the punishment for the sins of the National Government will fall principally upon Mr Massey .and his friends, who are said to have “dominated” the coalition. 1 do not say that this is right or fair, but that a strong impression to that effect is held. Moreover, it is held by friends of Reform. Hence the fear that the -elections will put Mr Massey in a minority. Some estimates are that Mr Massey will be able to command not more than a couple of dozen seats in the new Parliament, 1 and there are a number of his supporters who say it was really the fear of defeat that caused the Reform caucus to try to. entice the Liberals into a fusion. • Be that as it may, ,it is significant that many present members of the Reform Party are now standing as Independents, while it is common know* ‘ Jedge that several others are prepared to seriously consider the position in the light of the election results. Their object is to * l< dish” the “Reds.” They believe that n worse calamity than Mr Massey’s defeat wpuld be Sir Joseph Ward’s victory if that victory could bo held "only at the goodwill of the Labour extremists. In the event of the Liberal Party being stronger than the Reform Party after the elections—an event which not a few Reformers regard as being almost certain to happen—it may he regarded as much more than likely that several of the present followers of Mr Massey who are not Ultra-Conser-vative propose to accept the leadership of Sir Joseph Ward in order that he may not be embarrassed by any obligations to the extremists. ~ Tn support of this, the prophets point to the attitude of Mr Downie Stewart,' Mr Statham, Mr Sykes, Mr W. H. Field (who has announced his intention of joining the strongest party) and others, it is expected that in such a movement would be .found Mr Parr, of Auckland; Dr ■Newman, of Wellington, Mr Young, of Waikato; and Mr Lee, of Camara—assuming, of course,, that these gentlemen, retain their own seats. Some of the old-time hardy Reformers are frowning at this sort of Jhing, which they say is not “playing the game ” towards Mr Massey; but those in the movement are not exactly de- / lighted over all the works of their ' leader and of Sir James Allen. Mr tfcatham, for one, thinks the cost of Jiving should have been reduced, while E jveral of them are dubious a* to the (.uccess of the Government’s land policy. Then, Sir James Allen’s desire to rush the country into an expensive scheme of military training has cooled the ardour of some of his admirers. But the real kernel in the nut is that the Independents feel that what they call “ Bolshevism ” may be used as a wedge to split the House of Representatives into factions that would produce an impossible situation, while all of, them rebognise Sir Joseph Ward’s ability and are determined that if Mr Massey cannot obtain* a majority tho Liberals shall not be put into a false position by the “ Reds.” They also realise the wisdom of giving proper consideration to representatives of sane, moderate Labour, of whom tho House may contain a number. This movement has not been " flourished from the house-tops,” but there need be no doubt about its existence, and the public may rely upon its importance as a factor in the situation that will be presented after the elections next month.