The Way of the War.

Star (Christchurch), Issue 12284, 5 April 1918, Page 4

The Way of the War.

THE POSITION ANALYSED. CHRISTCHURCH, April 5. It is probable that there are in tho western theatre to-day 190 German divisions. At the beginning of February there were 115 enemy divisions in line, and from tho various statements made by correspondents one gathers that about 75 wore in reserve. The big offensive opened with 40 divisions and ultimately engaged 87, and at a guess one may say that already 50, or perhaps (10, of the enemy’s reserve divisions have been employed. If is not possible for him to throw tho whole of his reserves into the struggle, because every sector must be guarded and reserves must be held in tho normal course in Flanders, along the Aisne, in Champagne and in Lorraine. It docs nob follow, however, that these other sectors cannot bo drawn on for divisions, because formations that have suffered heavy casualties in the fighting can be brought up to establishment with drafts from the depots and then sent into reserve on a quieter sector. It is possible for the Germans to withdraw reserves from Lorraine, for instance, and replace them by divisions from the Somme that have to bo refitted. Or troops may he taken out of the line in Flanders, their places being taken by weak divisions from Montclidicr and Lassigny. It would not l>e correct, therefore, to assume that if 50 divisions have already been taken from the reserve another ten or twenty will mark the limit of the enemy’s resources. Tire probable course of the offensive is not to be arrived at in that way. It is true that the fighting will ultimately find the enemy’s limit, but in the meantime he can refit broken formations and send them back into tho struggle, or he can use them to replace fresh divisions brought from other sectors.

There is a curious divergence of opinion as to tho strength of the German divisions. Estimates vary from under 10,000 to more than 15,000. A German order captured Inst year insisted that the infantry strength of a division should not bo allowed to fall below 7500, or three regiments of 2500 each, but in practice this minimum seems to have become very nearly tho maximum, because the depots were not sending recruits forward in sufficient numbers to repair the wastage. This year the average strength of an enemy division is certainly above 10,000, so that when the offensive opened there must have been in tho neighbourhood of two million Germans in the west. Probably the total was well above that figure, because there are now immense numbers of soldiers employed at the bases and ■ behind tbo lines generally who are not on tho divisional strength. Tims if a division is taken out of the big fighting and transferred to another sector it dobs not take with it. its transport. The supply services are maintained independently, and all last year tho enemy was steadily perfecting his supply system, possibly in view of this year’s offensive. A division employs about a thousand men in its divisional train and ammunition column, and according to a statement by a French correspondent, the present German system permits this section to be cut down by one-half, tho bulk of the work being done by army sendees and not by divisional troops.

In a recent message, Mr Perris, who is at the French headquarters, estimated the strength of the German divisional artillery at 2000 of - all ranks. This seems to be an under-estimate. There ought normally to be some three thousand men with the field artillery and howitzers, and the enemy’s policy has always been to increase the strength of this arm. Indeed, a case was quoted last year in which the artillery establishment of a German division engaged in Flanders was not far short of the bayonet strength. This was doubtless exceptional, for the division had been badly battered and circumstances compelled the German General Staff to utilise it in the firing lino before it had had time to refit. But it could not conceivably have gone into the line with under four or five thousand rifles. By all accounts all German divisions in the west lately have had extra batteries assigned to them, but on the other hand the storm troops may be extra-divisional and may have no artillery of their own, though of course that would be unusual. Storm troops as a rule are either whole divisions specially trained or particular regiments selected for their morale, in which case they are not detached from their proper formations.

The latest calculations to be telegraphed place the German casualties during, say, ten days at from 250,000 to 300,000, or considerably more than 25 per cent of the effectives engaged. The figure is high, almost incredibly so. It may be based on the losses of particular regiments concerning which definite information is available, and the calculation may not be really applicable to the whole force employedThat the enemy’s losses were heavy was obvious from the accounts of the. battle, and as the later stages were fought by the infantry without the support of the heavies, and often with inadequate assistance from field batteries, the losses in the front line troops would be particularly severe. But even so, it is a little difficult to accept the calculation as reliable. It would be obviously impossible for the enemy to persist in an offensive that involved such sacrifices, and he could not face a repetition of the losses by pressing at once to another offensive on the same scale. The sacrifice of the equivalent of twenty to twenty-five divisions in ten days is unprecedented, except, perhaps, for the famous attempt to break through to Calais, when rather larger losses were suffered by the Germans in about three weeks of fighting. If ono could accept tho present estimate as correct ono could prophesy confidently that the continuation of the, enemy’s offensive would he on a much reduced scale.

The question of declaring war on Turkey and Bulgaria, is again under discussion in America. The whole subject of the relations between the United States and these Powers was tho. subject of an important memorandum by Dr Barton a few weeks ago. Dr Barton is said to have had twentyfivo years’ experience in tho administration of American institutions in Turkey. lie urges that the declaration of war should bo deferred to the latest possible moment. Both Bulgaria. and Turkey, he says, are under Gorman domination, but the main body of Turkish officials, and the peonlc