BLOCK'S PROPHECIES.

Star (Christchurch), Issue 11685, 29 April 1916, Page 7

BLOCK'S PROPHECIES.

ARE THEY COMING TRUE? Jean Bloch told nearly twenty years ago just what tho present war in, Europe would lie. The picture he drew was so true that some men are disposed to accept as coming fact tho social upheavals after the war that lie .foresaw. Bloch feared that {litor the costly conflict the nations of Europe would find themselves bankrupt, and. with most of their loaders slain,, menaced by the madness of ungnided masses. Bloch was not a prophet. Ho was merely a- successful business man who saw unjust-, burdens placed upon the people as one nation tried to outdo another iu preparations for a war which Bloch believed would be ruinous _to both •the victor and the vanquished. He was born in 1836, and was able to retire from business at the age of fifty after having made a large fortune in Russian railways. His preparation for writing his book began long before he had' any thought of becoming an author. It.began when, in his busy career as a man of affairs, he made 'mental' note of the things which ho would later use in giving his warning to men and nations. Bloch devoted cieht years to the preparation of his hook", and then, 'in 1898, issued "The Future, War," in six volumes. This is what he said nearly a generation ago: - " A great European war of the• future will, it may he assumed, be/ fought on one or the other frontier of Germany—in the Franco-German, area en the western side or the Germau-Austro-Russian area on the eastern or both. As it would be impossible under modern conditions for Germany, with or without the aid of Austria, to invade both France and Russia, she. would bo obliged to defend one frontier while crossing the oiher. "An attack on France would involve tho traversing of a difficult stretell of country in which elaborate arrangements'have been made for defence; and', although the French army is not so strong as" that of Germany, it would have the enormous advantage of standing on t uo defensive. Even if Germany were to sain initial successes through her superior swiftness in ••mobilisation, tho difficulties of modern warfare are such that she could not liope even under abnormally favourable 'circumstances to capture Paris in loss than two years, and long before then she would bo reduced to a state of entire economic exhaustion, it is to be borne in -mind th.it. the invading army would constantly grow, weaker, whi'.:e tho defenders would bo able, .tp enforce the superiority now. belonging to defence by bringing up all of their reserves.

"Difficulties which,.would be, if possible,, even harder to surmount) would attend a French attempt to invade Germany..

" The elaborate plans that have been drawn up for. an Austro-German in-

vasion of Russia would, in all probability, bo doomed to failure. The defensive system of Russian Poland is regarded as allmost perfect. Even if tho German and Austris-ji forces could evade tho Polish defences they /"would waste their strength against tho. second Russian fortified lino; and-even if that wore, broken through St Petersburg and Moscow Svoukl still bo far distant, and Russia's immense resources in men would enablo her to bring up body after body of reserves against tho dwindling invading force. " A Russian invasion of Prussia would have to encounter an elaborately scientific defensive system and would bo .liablo to n'A of tho other difficulties to which an invasion is exposed—particularly in this ease- tho difficulty of feeding a va.stl host of men on hostilo territory. The weakness of Austria's Galician frontier seems tempting, but Russia would have to striko at Germany—an invasion of Austria which left Germany untouched would be moro waste of energy. " The general conclusion is that invasion of an enemy's country in a groat European struggle would, in all probability, lead to the destruction of tho invaders and the entire exhaustion of both combatants."

After telling what the war would be Bloch gazed still further ahead and tried to see what would happen at tho close of tho conflict.. Ho said:

"The question is naturally asked: What will be given to tho people after tho war as compensation for their immense losses? The. conquered will certain V be too exhausted tb pay any money indemnity, and compensation must be taken by the retention of frontier territories, which will be so impoverished by Avar that their acquisition will bo a loss rather than a gain. "With such, conditions can wo hope for good sense among millions of men when but a handful ,of their officers remain? Will the armies of western Europe, where the socialist propaganda "had spread among the masses, allow themselves to be disarmed? If notj must wo not expect even greater disasters than those which marked the short lived triumph of the Paris Commune?"